Breve nota CA-CIB
Raiffeisen: definitive FY14
numbers; still a lot on its plate
RBI confirmed its preliminary figures for FY14 unveiled in February
2015, with a EUR493m loss and a 10% CET1 fully loaded ratio.
Medium-term targets have been reiterated, ie, CET1 12% and ROE 11%,
while the bank has announced that 2015 should see another loss due to
restructuring costs (EUR550m).
The bank is quite confident about its upturn, but we underline that this
is highly dependent on its ability to reduce RWA by EUR16bn (including
an IPO in Poland) by 2017 under reasonably good conditions.
We keep our recommendations unchanged at Reduce on cash and Sell
on 5Y CDS, but we lower our one-year rating target from High-BBB to
Mid-BBB due to rating agencies’ recent adjustments in the wake of the
removal of government support (two notches at RBI)
Raiffeisen published definitive 2014 numbers – no different from the preliminary
figures released on 10 February, but the group will present a strategic update.
Raiffeisen reported a EUR718m loss in Q414 (EUR493m loss in FY14), impacted
by one-off elements such as EUR306m goodwill impairments and EUR196m
DTA write-downs. It confirmed it will not pay any dividend for 2014.
Russia was still profitable (EUR342m), but Ukraine took a big hit (EUR290m
loss). CET1 is holding on at 10% and the group targets 12% in 2017 thanks to a
massive deleveraging/asset-sales plan, which offers low visibility (and 16% total
capital ratio). The targets depend largely on the release of EUR16bn RWA
(EUR7.7bn Poland, EUR3.5bn Asia, EUR1.7bn Russia, EUR1bn Ukraine …),
with execution risks.
2015 results could be negative following restructuring costs of EUR550m while
cost of risk should remain high, though lower than in 2014 (EUR1.7bn). The
group is targeting a medium-term ROE of 11% (pre-tax 14%), and a cost-income
ratio of 50-55% (with cost base 20% below 2014).
We keep our recommendations unchanged at Reduce on cash and Sell on 5YCDS.
As we wrote in February , we saw a brief positive reaction from the market following the
preliminary figures and plan. However, in our view we still lack visibility on the
immediate future of the group to go much further. Although senior bonds are
certainly protected from any bail-in scenario, we remain cautious regarding hybrid
debt. We reduce our one-year rating target from High-BBB to Mid-BBB, due to
the recent adjustments to rating agencies’ methodology in the wake of the
removal of government support (ie, LGF at Moody’s and two notches of
government support at S&P).