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UK Autumn Budget 2025: Record tax burden, OBR leak, and strong market volatility
Record tax burden.
Tax increases of around £40 billion a year.
Taxes will reach 38 percent of GDP by 2029-30, the highest level since 1948.
Main tax measures:
Over £70 billion allocated to the NHS and defence, funded by taxes and optimistic growth estimates.
OBR Leak: Immediate Shock on Markets
The full version of the OBR report leaked hours before the official statement.
Market reaction:
Fiscal drag:
The freezing of thresholds will mean that, by 2028, one in four taxpayers will pay higher rates.
NIC Increase:
Risk of Lower Wage Increases and Slower Hiring.
Political reactions:
The opposition calls the move "a betrayal of workers."
Internal tensions could erode the government's political capital.
Latest Markets View
Will the record tax burden stifle growth?
How serious is the OBR leak for market confidence?
Will hidden taxes spark enough protests to force the government to change course?
Write your opinions.
Record tax burden.
Tax increases of around £40 billion a year.
Taxes will reach 38 percent of GDP by 2029-30, the highest level since 1948.
Main tax measures:
- Employer NICs at 15 percent and threshold cut to £5,000
- IRPEF thresholds frozen: approximately 6 million taxpayers will move into higher brackets.
- Abolition of the Non-Dom regime
- Reduction of inheritance tax relief
- 20 percent “Mansion tax” on high-rate real estate capital gains
Over £70 billion allocated to the NHS and defence, funded by taxes and optimistic growth estimates.
OBR Leak: Immediate Shock on Markets
The full version of the OBR report leaked hours before the official statement.
Market reaction:
- Gilt yields +15 bps
- Pound and highly volatile stocks
- FTSE 250 hit hardest
Fiscal drag:
The freezing of thresholds will mean that, by 2028, one in four taxpayers will pay higher rates.
NIC Increase:
Risk of Lower Wage Increases and Slower Hiring.
Political reactions:
The opposition calls the move "a betrayal of workers."
Internal tensions could erode the government's political capital.
Latest Markets View
- Bonds: Gilts cautiously priced, but risks remain elevated.
- Growth: Forecasts may be too optimistic.
- Political risk: Marked after the leak and tax dispute.
- Wage and employment data (PMI, wage growth)
- Political polls and possible backtracking
- Gilts and GBP technical levels for potential sharp moves
Will the record tax burden stifle growth?
How serious is the OBR leak for market confidence?
Will hidden taxes spark enough protests to force the government to change course?
Write your opinions.
