Ultima Markets Daily Insights - Forex, indici, economia e politica

[Ultima Markets Italia]

UK Autumn Budget 2025: Record tax burden, OBR leak, and strong market volatility


Record tax burden.
Tax increases of around £40 billion a year.
Taxes will reach 38 percent of GDP by 2029-30, the highest level since 1948.

Main tax measures:

• Employer NICs at 15 percent and threshold cut to £5,000
• IRPEF thresholds frozen: approximately 6 million taxpayers will move into higher brackets.
• Abolition of the Non-Dom regime
• Reduction of inheritance tax relief
• 20 percent “Mansion tax” on high-rate real estate capital gains

Public spending:
Over £70 billion allocated to the NHS and defence, funded by taxes and optimistic growth estimates.

OBR Leak: Immediate Shock on Markets
The full version of the OBR report leaked hours before the official statement.

Market reaction:

• Gilt yields +15 bps
• Pound and highly volatile stocks
• FTSE 250 hit hardest

Stealth taxes and political risk
Fiscal drag:
The freezing of thresholds will mean that, by 2028, one in four taxpayers will pay higher rates.

NIC Increase:
Risk of Lower Wage Increases and Slower Hiring.

Political reactions:
The opposition calls the move "a betrayal of workers."
Internal tensions could erode the government's political capital.

Latest Markets View

• Bonds: Gilts cautiously priced, but risks remain elevated.
• Growth: Forecasts may be too optimistic.
• Political risk: Marked after the leak and tax dispute.

What to monitor now

• Wage and employment data (PMI, wage growth)
• Political polls and possible backtracking
• Gilts and GBP technical levels for potential sharp moves

Discussion:
Will the record tax burden stifle growth?
How serious is the OBR leak for market confidence?
Will hidden taxes spark enough protests to force the government to change course?

Write your opinions.

 

[Ultima Markets Italia]

Silver (XAGUSD) Approaches $54: Breakout or Double Top?

Daily chart analysis​

Trend: Strongly bullish

Key resistance: $53.91–$54.10 (mid-October highs)

Bullish scenario:

• Confirmation: Daily close above $54.00
• Target: $55.00–$56.00

Downside risk:

• Possible double top if area 54 fails to hold

XAGUSD Daily Chart | Source: Ultima Markets MT5

2-hour chart analysis​

Momentum: Strong uptrend, price above the purple MA (dynamic support)

Stochastic: Bullish reset, above 50, not overbought

Bullish breakout trigger:

• H2 close above $54.10 (stochastic >80)
• Target: over $55.00

Bearish trigger:

• H2 close below purple MA (~53.00 USD)
• Target: Medium-term MA at ~51.90 USD

XAGUSD 2-hour chart | Source: Ultima Markets MT5

30-minute chart analysis​

Trend: Upside intact; pullback towards $53.40 likely supported

Overbought Risk: Oscillators on Alert, BUT Still Bullish

Bullish continuation:

• Confirmation: Close above USD 53.90 (30MA)
• Target: 54.25 and 54.50 USD

Buy-the-dip:

• Candlesticks with long shadows below $53.40

Bearish reversal:

• Strong close below black MA at $52.90

XAGUSD 30-minute chart | Source: Ultima Markets MT5

Strategy​

• Momentum favors bulls but breakout above 54 crucial
• Pullback towards USD 53.40–53.00 = possible long entries
• Double top risk on failure to breakout
• Below 52.90 USD there is a risk of a deeper correction.

Discussion​

Do you think a breakout above 54 or a double top is likely?
Should you buy the breakout or wait for a dip?

 

[Ultima Markets Italia]

US Dollar and Stock Market Outlook: Eyes on Powell and PCE

Main market theme​

The Fed's dovish signals have pushed risk assets higher and weakened the dollar.
The market is now pricing in a close to 90% probability of a rate cut in December.

Key risk: Powell's speech and Friday's PCE data.

What is already priced​

Rate expectations:
87–90 percent probability of a cut.
Several Fed officials have prepared the market for a more accommodative policy.

Hawkish Risk:
A more dovish message from Powell could bounce the dollar and dampen risk appetite.

Key data​

Friday:
September PCE Index

• Above Expectations: Lower Rate Cut Chances, Stronger Dollar, Vulnerable Stocks
• Below or in line: Strengthens the dovish scenario

Today:
ISM Manufacturing PMI

• Below 50: Dovish sentiment strengthens
• Above 50: Limits dollar weakness

USDX Technical​

Structure:
Double top in the 100.00 area.
Bearish bias in the medium term.

Key Support: 99.00–99.25

Break below 99.00: towards 98.00

Risk:
Any hawkish surprises can reverse the movement abruptly.

USDX, H4 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

S&P 500 Technical​

Trend:
After the return above 6,700, the bearish structure is canceled.

Resistance: 6,900
Further upside depends on Powell's tone and data.

S&P 500, Daily Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

Strategy​

Dollar: Bearish until hawkish surprises arrive
Stocks: Bullish above 6,700, but volatility likely near 6,900
Key events: ISM today, PCE Friday

Discussion​

Will Powell remain dovish?
Is a drop below 99.00 a real trend reversal for the dollar?
Will the S&P 500 surpass 6,900?
How are you positioning yourself for the PCE?