Grazie Andrea, se risale lo rivendo
- aspetto .7790 perchè è li che continua a ballare nella fascia (gap?) .7760/.7790 ... Nuova Zelanda mi pare invece meno liquido e soprattutto più scorbutico, forse mi è meno simpatico
...l'altro giorno ho tolto l'ordine a .7310 (che mi avrebbero eseguito) e poi mi son mangiato le mani ... del resto devo imparare e tirare su due svanziche che i margini sul bund fan male...ma non mi posso lamentare con te ...
US Treasuries restrained by Fed, soft data a help
Mon May 2, 2005 10:55 AM ET
(Adds ISM data, reaction, updates prices)
By Wayne Cole
NEW YORK, May 2 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices stayed subdued on Monday even after a survey of U.S. manufacturing showed the fifth straight month of slowing growth, suggesting an economic soft patch may be lengthening.
The numbers were a disappointment to those looking for a big bounce back from weakness in March, yet it did nothing to change market expectations of an interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve at its policy meeting on Tuesday.
Thus after an initial bounce on the data, Treasuries quickly ran into selling and the 10-year note (US10YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) eased 2/32 in price. Yields rose to 4.21 percent from 4.20 percent late Friday and 10-week lows of 4.15 percent.
The Institute for Supply Management's index of business activity dropped to 53.3 in April, from 55.2 in March. That was under forecasts of 55.0 and the lowest reading since July 2003, though traders said some in the bond market had been betting on an even weaker result.
New orders also slowed while the employment index dipped to 52.3 from 53.3 in March, which could temper talk of a sizable gain in the April payrolls report due on Friday. The only hiccup for bonds was a still-high reading for prices.
"Taken collectively the data is definitely bond friendly, although the prices data suggests the Fed will have to remain alert to inflation," said Alan Ruskin, research director at 4CAST. "The data then plays to curve flatteners."
"The immediate bond market reaction has been restrained, indicative of a market that does not wish to take big positions before the FOMC meeting," he added.
The two-year note (US2YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) dropped 1/32, taking yields to 3.67 percent from 3.65 percent. Five-year note (US5YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) yields edged up to 3.90 percent from 3.89 percent.
At the very long end of the market, the 30-year Treasury bond (US30YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) lost 7/32, raising yields to near 4.53 percent from 4.51 percent.
Two-year yields got as low as 3.48 percent last week but could not sustain such levels given expectations the Fed will raise overnight rates 25 basis points to 3.00 percent on Tuesday, and likely add another 25 basis points in June.
Several recent media reports have also suggested the Fed would drop its commitment to raising rates at a "measured" pace.
"The FOMC meeting is the key of the week, with speculation high that 'measured' will go and the inflation warning will stay," said Richard Gilhooly, senior fixed-income market strategist at BNP Paribas.
"The question is whether the hedge is the reference to recent weak economy data which would give the Fed flexibility to pause or accelerate. The curve should be under flattening pressure from the Fed," he added.
Until a few weeks ago the market had feared the Fed could shift to larger hikes, but the recent run of soft economic data makes that look a lot less likely.
Still, with the Fed's official federal funds rate seen at 3.25 percent by the end of June, analysts assumed yields on two-year Treasuries would have to rise toward 4.00 percent to maintain a minimum spread of 70 basis points, as they have done for the last couple of years.
In contrast, long-term yields are expected to be held down by a combination of economic worries, still subdued inflation expectations and
talk of duration demand from pension funds.
These divergent trends have already seen the spread between two- and 10-year yields shrink to 55 basis points, the lowest reading since early 2001, and analysts see scope for further contraction toward 38 basis points.
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