Caro Fleur, meno male è andato tutto bene ... a certa gente dovrebbero togliere la patente, a partire dal sottoscritto
US Treasuries barely budge before Fed statement
Tue May 3, 2005 12:58 PM ET
(Adds auto sales data, updates prices)
NEW YORK, May 3 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasuries were barely changed on Tuesday as investors waited anxiously to see if the Federal Reserve springs any surprises in its post-meeting statement later in the session.
The benchmark 10-year note (US10YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) was stuck at 4.19 percent, though that was still within striking distance of recent 10-week lows of 4.15 percent.
The market has long priced-in a 0.25 percentage point rise in the Fed's key funds rate to 3.00 percent, which would make it the eighth hike since last June. More meaningful will be any hint of future intentions in the post-meeting statement, due around 2:15 p.m. (1815 GMT).
There has been much speculation the Fed would finally drop its reference to raising rates in a "measured" manner. Investors are divided on whether that would mean a pause was likely or a shift to 0.5 percentage point hikes, and that very ambiguity is why many analysts think the Fed will avoid rocking the boat this time.
"In our view, all of the sensitive forward-looking parts of its statement -- the characterization of policy as 'accommodative,' the infamous 'measured pace' language, and the assessments of risks -- will stay in place," said Ed McKelvey, a senior economist at Goldman Sachs.
This would likely confine any textual changes to descriptions of recent developments in the economy.
"The panel is apt to acknowledge a slowing in growth, may also note that some inflation measures have been elevated, and in either case will suggest that transitory factors are mainly at work," argued McKelvey.
Such an outcome would still leave the market guessing on exactly how far rates have yet to rise. Fed funds futures (0#FF:: Quote, Profile, Research) are pricing in rates of around 3.75 percent by year-end which implies hikes at three of the next five Fed meetings.
Such a rise in overnight rates would likely keep upward pressure on short-term Treasury yields. The two-year note (US2YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) was stuck at 3.64 percent on Tuesday, but traders noted it had not yielded less than 70 basis points over Fed funds for the last two years and thus yields needed to rise to maintain that cushion.
In contrast, long-term yields are expected to be held down by a combination of economic worries, still subdued inflation expectations and talk of duration demand from pension funds.
These divergent trends have already seen the spread between two- and 10-year yields shrink to 55 basis points, the lowest reading since early 2001, and analysts see scope for further contraction toward a chart target at 38 basis points.
On Tuesday, the five-year note (US5YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) was hovering around 3.88 percent, while the 30-year bond (US30YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) held at 4.52 percent.
Bond prices wobbled slightly after Challenger reported a hefty 33 percent decline in planned layoffs to 57,861 in April. That was the slowest pace of job losses in almost five years, and could bolster speculation of an improvement in the April payrolls report, due on Friday.
Meanwhile, factory orders beat low expectations with a 0.1 percent increase in March. However, much of the strength was accounted for by a jump in gas prices and excluding petroleum, orders were actually down 1.5 percent.
There were slight upward revisions to weak durable goods orders, but analysts cautioned the implications for business investment were still disappointing.
Also coming out through the day were figures on U.S. auto sales for April, an important signpost for consumer spending in the month. Early signs were that sales of North American-made vehicles were running a little above expectations at an annual 13.5 million pace, compared to 13.4 million in March.
ho visto tutto come al rallenty , per fortuna ho il tempo di sterzare e buttarmi al lato dove miracolosamente al posto del muretto di pietra e relativo ulivo secolare tostissimo si trova un bello spiazzo a ciottolato 
