Perchè sale il Treasury ora? Boh

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Letture
US Treasury turns fickle, triggers 30-yr bond rout
Wed May 4, 2005 12:56 PM ET
(Recasts, updates prices)
NEW YORK, May 4 (Reuters) - Long-term Treasury debt prices tumbled on Wednesday after the U.S. Treasury stunned the market by saying it might bring back the 30-year bond.
Assistant Secretary for Financial Markets Timothy Bitsberger said Treasury would "examine if we have flexibility to issue 30-year bonds while maintaining deep and liquid markets in our other securities and determine if nominal bond issuance is cost effective."
Treasury ceased issuing bonds in October 2001 and since then repeatedly stated it had no plans to bring it back. The subsequent scarcity tended to keep prices relatively high.
Any new issuance would not start until February, 2006 but still the prospect of fresh supply sent the 30-year bond (US30YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) down over two full points in price. Its yield shot up to 4.61 percent from 4.49 percent on Tuesday, the biggest one-day rise in over a year.
"It's a complete shock," said Sadakichi Robbins, head of global fixed-income trading at Bank Julius Baer.
"You could argue that the 30-year will find more than enough demand given the global hunt for duration right now," he added. "But an awful lot of people have been playing curve trades and this is going to cause them a lot of pain."
Investors have been making money by betting on a flattening of the yield curve, selling short-term debt and buying longer-dated issues, which has proven very profitable in recent months. However, with long-term yields now surging, the curve was steepening sharply and forcing people to abandon their flattening bets at a considerable loss.
The gap between 10- and 30-year yields widened to 40 basis-points, from 31 basis points on Tuesday, having dropped all the way from around 80 basis points late last year.
"I feel sorry for the customers -- Treasury has again caught everyone by surprise," said Dominic Konstam, head of interest-rate strategy at CSFB. Treasury sent the market into turmoil when it first dropped the bond back in 2001.
"For us, it's the right decision, but they could have given people more warning," he added. "The market's reaction is fully justified and yields could rise a lot further given how everyone was positioned for flattening trades."
The rush out of such trades left two-year Treasuries unscathed as investors bought back short-dated debt. Indeed, two-year yields (US2YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) actually ticked down to 3.62 percent from 3.64 percent.
In the middle of the curve, the five-year note (US5YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) held steady at 3.87 percent. In contrast, the 10-year note (US10YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) lost 10/32, lifting yields to 4.21 percent from 4.17 percent.
Traders did note, however, that any sale of 30-year paper would likely replace some current issuance of 10- and five-year paper, thus making them relatively more scarce.
CSFB's Konstam also suspected the back-up in longer-term yields would go some way to solving Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan's "conundrum". He, and other Fed officials, have said it was puzzling why long-term yields had not risen further given how the Fed had hiked short term rates -- the latest being a quarter-point rise to 3.00 percent on Tuesday.
Wednesday's economic data were overshadowed by the news on the 30-year, but did show some slowing in the U.S. service sector.
The Institute for Supply Management index of services eased much as expected to 61.7 in April, from 63.1 in March. However, the breakdown was soft, with new orders declining and the employment index dropping to 53.3 from 57.1 in March.
The latter was another blow to those looking for a strong rise in from Friday's payrolls report for April, and provided some support to bonds.
U.S. Treasury hears market call for long bond
Wed May 4, 2005 12:08 PM ET
WASHINGTON, May 4 (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury Department has been getting strong signals from financial markets that they would like Treasury to sell more longer-dated securities, a senior department official said on Wednesday.
The official, speaking to reporters on condition of anonymity, emphasized that no decision has been taken about reintroducing sales of 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds, but indicated that Treasury saw a market for them.
"We really try to listen to the marketplace," the official said, "And we hear very strong anecdotal evidence of more demand for longer-dated treasuries."
Treasury discontinued the long bond in 2001 but announced on Wednesday that it will decide by Aug. 3 whether to reintroduce them.
The official also said tax receipts so far in April were running at healthy levels, about 20 percent above levels in April 2004.