bund,bond vietato a non shorter ogm e minorenni
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Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
Reuters
US Treasury yields hit 8-month lows, supply looms
Monday March 8, 11:36 am ET
By Wayne Cole
(NEW YORK, March 8 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields hit eight-months lows on Monday as investors piled into fixed-income debt, betting official interest rates will stay at four-decade lows for months to come.
The Treasury announced it would sell $16 billion of new five-year notes on Wednesday, and in something of a surprise, $11 billion of reopened 10-year notes on Thursday, instead of the expected$12 billion.
The latest surge in prices means the paper will be considerably more expensive than in other recent auctions. But traders expect strong demand anyway, with many who were short of Treasuries being forced to buy as momentum moves against them.
Dealers are also hoping Asian central banks will put their dollars to work, particularly the Bank of Japan, which is thought to have bought up to $20 billion on Friday alone in the latest bout of massive intervention.
"We expect that sufficient intervention is still in the pipeline to drive strong auction performance once more," said Ben Martens, a Treasury strategist at Lehman Brothers. "It will be the next set of auctions that will be at risk from reduced Asian demand."
The only U.S. economic data out on Monday was the Kansas City Fed's February manufacturing survey. That showed a slight dip to 14 in February from 17 in March. But like many figures yet to come, it was completely overshadowed by the jobs outlook.
Late on Monday morning, the two-year note (US2YT=RR) had firmed 3/32 in price, dragging its yield down to 1.51 percent from 1.57 percent late Friday. At the start of the year, yields had been stuck above 1.90 percent.
The 30-year bond (US30YT=RR) climbed 25/32, leaving its yield at 4.72 percent, down from 4.76 percent.
Five-year notes (US5YT=RR) added 11/32, compressing their yield to 2.73 percent from 2.81 percent. The 10-year note (US10YT=RR) rose 19/32, taking its yield to an eight-month trough of 3.78 percent. That was down from 3.85 percent late on Friday and 4.03 percent before the job news.
That sea change in yields was a painful adjustment for many bears who have been short Treasuries for months on a view that interest rates would have to rise.
"Friday had a capitulatory feel to it, with payrolls pretty much a 'disaster' in the eyes of most economists," said Peter McTeague, Treasury market strategist at RBS Greenwich Capital.
"People are losing their patience with the ability of the economy to create some jobs, and with it comes a further push out of Fed expectations -- eventually people will embrace the view that the Fed won't be tightening in 2004," he added.
The latest survey of fund managers by Ried, Thunberg taken last Friday shows managers are still short, even while sentiment on bonds improved substantially after the jobs numbers.
The survey of 27 money managers found average portfolio duration -- a measure of sensitivity to interest rate changes -- had dived to a nine-year low of 90 from 97 the week before.
Historically, such a low result has tended to herald major rallies as managers buy longer-dated Treasuries to lift the duration of their portfolios.
The survey suggested such a shift was already underway, with respondents reporting their allocation for government debt rising to 26 percent of portfolios from a record low of 15 percent the previous week.
The slide in yields is also dragging mortgage rates sharply lower and making another wave of refinancing more likely. Traders are wondering how far 10-year yields can fall before mortgage managers will have to react.
Some see a trigger level at 3.75 percent, others nearer 3.60 percent, but all suspect mortgage managers will have to extend their portfolio duration at some point to hedge against rising prepayment risk -- and that means buying Treasuries.
US Treasury yields hit 8-month lows, supply looms
Monday March 8, 11:36 am ET
By Wayne Cole
(NEW YORK, March 8 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields hit eight-months lows on Monday as investors piled into fixed-income debt, betting official interest rates will stay at four-decade lows for months to come.
The Treasury announced it would sell $16 billion of new five-year notes on Wednesday, and in something of a surprise, $11 billion of reopened 10-year notes on Thursday, instead of the expected$12 billion.
The latest surge in prices means the paper will be considerably more expensive than in other recent auctions. But traders expect strong demand anyway, with many who were short of Treasuries being forced to buy as momentum moves against them.
Dealers are also hoping Asian central banks will put their dollars to work, particularly the Bank of Japan, which is thought to have bought up to $20 billion on Friday alone in the latest bout of massive intervention.
"We expect that sufficient intervention is still in the pipeline to drive strong auction performance once more," said Ben Martens, a Treasury strategist at Lehman Brothers. "It will be the next set of auctions that will be at risk from reduced Asian demand."
The only U.S. economic data out on Monday was the Kansas City Fed's February manufacturing survey. That showed a slight dip to 14 in February from 17 in March. But like many figures yet to come, it was completely overshadowed by the jobs outlook.
Late on Monday morning, the two-year note (US2YT=RR) had firmed 3/32 in price, dragging its yield down to 1.51 percent from 1.57 percent late Friday. At the start of the year, yields had been stuck above 1.90 percent.
The 30-year bond (US30YT=RR) climbed 25/32, leaving its yield at 4.72 percent, down from 4.76 percent.
Five-year notes (US5YT=RR) added 11/32, compressing their yield to 2.73 percent from 2.81 percent. The 10-year note (US10YT=RR) rose 19/32, taking its yield to an eight-month trough of 3.78 percent. That was down from 3.85 percent late on Friday and 4.03 percent before the job news.
That sea change in yields was a painful adjustment for many bears who have been short Treasuries for months on a view that interest rates would have to rise.
"Friday had a capitulatory feel to it, with payrolls pretty much a 'disaster' in the eyes of most economists," said Peter McTeague, Treasury market strategist at RBS Greenwich Capital.
"People are losing their patience with the ability of the economy to create some jobs, and with it comes a further push out of Fed expectations -- eventually people will embrace the view that the Fed won't be tightening in 2004," he added.
The latest survey of fund managers by Ried, Thunberg taken last Friday shows managers are still short, even while sentiment on bonds improved substantially after the jobs numbers.
The survey of 27 money managers found average portfolio duration -- a measure of sensitivity to interest rate changes -- had dived to a nine-year low of 90 from 97 the week before.
Historically, such a low result has tended to herald major rallies as managers buy longer-dated Treasuries to lift the duration of their portfolios.
The survey suggested such a shift was already underway, with respondents reporting their allocation for government debt rising to 26 percent of portfolios from a record low of 15 percent the previous week.
The slide in yields is also dragging mortgage rates sharply lower and making another wave of refinancing more likely. Traders are wondering how far 10-year yields can fall before mortgage managers will have to react.
Some see a trigger level at 3.75 percent, others nearer 3.60 percent, but all suspect mortgage managers will have to extend their portfolio duration at some point to hedge against rising prepayment risk -- and that means buying Treasuries.
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
In particolare è interessante leggere le ultime righe dove vengono fatte delle ipotesi sul livello di 10y yields al quale i mortgage managers saranno costretti a intervenire sul mercato per hedgiare i loro portafogli ( ovvero comprare treasuries ) : alcuni vedono il trigger level al 3,75%, altri vicino al 3,6% ( ora siamo poco sotto il 3,8% )
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
dan24 ha scritto:SANTA MARGHERITA, fontanella di acqua pulita..un favore ti voglio
domandare il bund a 115,00 ed il russel a 989
fallo andare.....
fatelo seriamente e vedete che si avvicina al prezzo che dite...
questo vale anche per chi è long...ma sarebbe contro di noi.....
dan mai vista sta forza relativa del russell rispetto al nasdaq
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
dan24 ha scritto:
che se continuano a salire i Bonds le testine delle società di finanziamento mutuo saranno costretti a comprare treasuries sul mercato alimentando ulteriormente il rialzo
dan24
Forumer storico
Fleursdumal ha scritto:dan24 ha scritto:SANTA MARGHERITA, fontanella di acqua pulita..un favore ti voglio
domandare il bund a 115,00 ed il russel a 989
fatelo seriamente e vedete che si avvicina al prezzo che dite...
questo vale anche per chi è long...ma sarebbe contro di noi.....
dan mai vista sta forza relativa del russell rispetto al nasdaq
che c..ulo che ho..dillo
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
dan24 ha scritto:Fleursdumal ha scritto:dan24 ha scritto:SANTA MARGHERITA, fontanella di acqua pulita..un favore ti voglio
domandare il bund a 115,00 ed il russel a 989
fatelo seriamente e vedete che si avvicina al prezzo che dite...
questo vale anche per chi è long...ma sarebbe contro di noi.....
dan mai vista sta forza relativa del russell rispetto al nasdaq
che c..ulo che ho..dillo
ieri avessi potuto ti avrei mozzicato il dito si' come il pescatore da' il morso alla testa del polpo :smile:
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