ric le hai più cercate le benedette obbligazioni neozelandesi?
Treasuries heartened by retail softness, Fed looms
By Pedro Nicolaci da Costa
NEW YORK, Dec 13 (Reuters) - Treasury debt prices firmed on Tuesday as U.S. retail sales for November fell short of forecasts, but gains were tempered by an imminent interest rate decision from the Federal Reserve.
The retail figures certainly did not alter expectations for another 1/4 percentage point increase in interest rates from the central bank, which would bring the benchmark federal funds rate to 4.25 percent.
But they did raise hopes that, in the event that consumer spending continues to waver under the weight of high energy prices, the Fed might soon abandon its monetary tightening campaign.
Retail sales climbed 0.3 percent when economists had been looking for a 0.5 percent gain. Still, October's results were revised up to a 0.3 percent gain from a previously reported 0.1 percent dip.
Sales excluding autos slipped 0.3 percent, also a disappointment considering analysts had been looking for a 0.1 percent increase.
Benchmark 10-year notes were up 6/32 for a yield of 4.53 percent, compared with 4.55 percent on Monday. Two-year notes yields eased to 4.43 percent from 4.45 percent.
Five-year notes were up 3/32 for a yield of 4.44 percent, while the 30-year bond rose 11/32 to yield 4.73 percent.
LINGUISTIC CENTRAL BANKING
Because investors have generally factored-in an interest rate hike this afternoon, they are much more concerned with seeing how policy-makers describe the state of policy and the economy in their post-meeting statement.
Analysts will be hunting for clues in the Fed's every turn of phrase for the future course of policy.
Some are predicting a two-step process, where the central bank first acknowledges that policy has become less stimulative now that interest rates have risen substantially from their trough, only to signal an imminent pause in its January statemen
Others envision something of a more abrupt shift, where the Fed simply says that future interest rate increases will become increasingly dependent on the incoming economic data.
Much attention hinges on two words: "accommodation" and "measured". The first hints at the level of policy stimulus while the latter refers to the pace of interest rate increases.
Another curious variable in the current monetary tightening cycle is that the Fed faces an imminent shift in leadership, with Ben Bernanke expected to take over from Alan Greenspan at the end of January after more than 18 years.
This looming transition might require more drastic changes to the policy lingo as Bernanke, who is often more plain spoken than Greenspan, attempts to insert his own voice into the verbiage of U.S. central banking.
