Bund e TBond: l'era del cinghiale bianco
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Fleursdumal
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parola chiave - the worst is behind us -
Treasuries Fall as Job Growth in November Exceeds Forecast
By Deborah Finestone and Liz Capo McCormick
Dec. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Treasuries fell, heading for their first weekly decline since October, as a government report diminished chances of a recession by showing employers added more jobs last month than economists forecast.
Demand for government bonds weakened as traders reduced bets that the Federal Reserve will cut its target lending rate by a half-percentage point at its meeting Dec. 11. Yields on 10- year notes fell last month the most in more than five years on concern that subprime mortgage losses will deepen.
``The market is coming to the realization that the worst is behind us and bond yields are supposed to be higher,'' said Joseph Balestrino, a senior portfolio manager in Pittsburgh at Federated Investors Inc., which oversees about $21 billion.
Ten-year note yields rose 9 basis points, or 0.09 percentage point, to 4.11 percent at 12:47 p.m. in New York, according to bond broker Cantor Fitzgerald LP. The price of the 4 1/4 percent coupon due in November 2017 fell 23/32, or $7.19 per $1,000 face amount, to 101 5/32.
Futures contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade indicated a 26 percent chance that policy makers will lower the 4.5 percent target rate for overnight lending between banks by a half- percentage point at their meeting Dec. 11, compared with a 36 percent likelihood yesterday. The odds of a quarter-point cut were 74 percent.
``It's almost a sure thing the Fed will cut interest rates, but I'd be surprised if they go 50 basis points,'' said Scot Johnson, who manages $2.1 billion of government bonds in Houston at AIM Capital Management Inc. The firm holds fewer Treasury securities than its benchmark index, he said.
Two-Year Notes
Two-year note yields increased 9 basis points to 3.17 percent and are up 14 basis points for the week. They fell to 2.79 percent on Dec. 4, the lowest since November 2004. Their decrease of 95 basis points last month was the biggest since the October 1987 stock market crash.
Benchmark 10-year note yields are up 18 basis points for the week, heading for the biggest increase since November 2005. They fell to 3.79 percent on Nov. 26, the lowest level since March 2004. Their decrease of 53 basis points in November is the biggest since September 2002.
U.S. employers added 94,000 jobs in November, compared with a revised increase of 170,000 the previous month, the Labor Department said in Washington. The median forecast of 82 economists surveyed by Bloomberg was for an increase of 80,000.
``This is not the type of off-the-cliff data most people expected given the credit crunch and the depressionary conditions in the housing market,'' said William O'Donnell, head of U.S. government bond strategy in Stamford, Connecticut, at UBS Securities LLC, one of the 20 primary security dealers that trade with the Fed.
Unemployment Rate
The unemployment rate held at 4.7 percent for the third month in a row, compared with economists' expectation that it would rise to 4.8 percent.
Benchmark indexes that gauge the risk of U.S. companies defaulting on their debts fell after the payroll report. The Markit CDX North America Investment Grade Index, a U.S. benchmark for the cost of protecting debt from default, fell 3.25 basis points to 73.5 basis points in New York, according to Deutsche Bank AG.
Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said last week in Charlotte, North Carolina, that a strong labor market is ``important for maintaining the economic expansion.'' A day earlier, Vice Chairman Donald Kohn said strong labor markets provided an important ``pillar'' for the economy.
Bush Announcement
President George W. Bush and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson yesterday announced a plan to freeze interest rates to prevent a wave of foreclosures from undoing the six-year U.S. economic expansion. The proposal may force investors in the $6.3 trillion market for home-loan bonds to revalue their holdings.
``It's a step to try and calm the markets,'' said Kevin Giddis, head of fixed-income trading in Memphis, Tennessee, at Morgan Keegan Inc. ``I'm not sure there's any real long-term good that comes from the plan because it's a very complicated process.''
The London interbank offering rate for borrowing dollars for one month was within 2 basis points of the highest level since September, indicating that banks are still reluctant to lend to each other before the end of the year. One-month Libor was little changed at 5.24 percent, according to the British Bankers' Association.
The rates are ``not going up anymore, but they're still quite high,'' said Andrew Brenner, co-head of structured products in New York at MF Global Ltd. ``There's still a desire to have Treasuries on your book at year-end.''
Two-year notes yielded 99 basis points less than 10-year notes, within 3 basis points of the biggest difference since January 2005. The widened gap suggests increased demand for the safety of shorter-term debt in anticipation of Fed rate cuts.
The yield on the two-year note will be 3.26 percent, while the 10-year note's yield will reach 4.16 percent by year-end, according to Bloomberg News surveys of economists. The most recent responses are given the heaviest weightings.
Treasuries Fall as Job Growth in November Exceeds Forecast
By Deborah Finestone and Liz Capo McCormick
Dec. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Treasuries fell, heading for their first weekly decline since October, as a government report diminished chances of a recession by showing employers added more jobs last month than economists forecast.
Demand for government bonds weakened as traders reduced bets that the Federal Reserve will cut its target lending rate by a half-percentage point at its meeting Dec. 11. Yields on 10- year notes fell last month the most in more than five years on concern that subprime mortgage losses will deepen.
``The market is coming to the realization that the worst is behind us and bond yields are supposed to be higher,'' said Joseph Balestrino, a senior portfolio manager in Pittsburgh at Federated Investors Inc., which oversees about $21 billion.
Ten-year note yields rose 9 basis points, or 0.09 percentage point, to 4.11 percent at 12:47 p.m. in New York, according to bond broker Cantor Fitzgerald LP. The price of the 4 1/4 percent coupon due in November 2017 fell 23/32, or $7.19 per $1,000 face amount, to 101 5/32.
Futures contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade indicated a 26 percent chance that policy makers will lower the 4.5 percent target rate for overnight lending between banks by a half- percentage point at their meeting Dec. 11, compared with a 36 percent likelihood yesterday. The odds of a quarter-point cut were 74 percent.
``It's almost a sure thing the Fed will cut interest rates, but I'd be surprised if they go 50 basis points,'' said Scot Johnson, who manages $2.1 billion of government bonds in Houston at AIM Capital Management Inc. The firm holds fewer Treasury securities than its benchmark index, he said.
Two-Year Notes
Two-year note yields increased 9 basis points to 3.17 percent and are up 14 basis points for the week. They fell to 2.79 percent on Dec. 4, the lowest since November 2004. Their decrease of 95 basis points last month was the biggest since the October 1987 stock market crash.
Benchmark 10-year note yields are up 18 basis points for the week, heading for the biggest increase since November 2005. They fell to 3.79 percent on Nov. 26, the lowest level since March 2004. Their decrease of 53 basis points in November is the biggest since September 2002.
U.S. employers added 94,000 jobs in November, compared with a revised increase of 170,000 the previous month, the Labor Department said in Washington. The median forecast of 82 economists surveyed by Bloomberg was for an increase of 80,000.
``This is not the type of off-the-cliff data most people expected given the credit crunch and the depressionary conditions in the housing market,'' said William O'Donnell, head of U.S. government bond strategy in Stamford, Connecticut, at UBS Securities LLC, one of the 20 primary security dealers that trade with the Fed.
Unemployment Rate
The unemployment rate held at 4.7 percent for the third month in a row, compared with economists' expectation that it would rise to 4.8 percent.
Benchmark indexes that gauge the risk of U.S. companies defaulting on their debts fell after the payroll report. The Markit CDX North America Investment Grade Index, a U.S. benchmark for the cost of protecting debt from default, fell 3.25 basis points to 73.5 basis points in New York, according to Deutsche Bank AG.
Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said last week in Charlotte, North Carolina, that a strong labor market is ``important for maintaining the economic expansion.'' A day earlier, Vice Chairman Donald Kohn said strong labor markets provided an important ``pillar'' for the economy.
Bush Announcement
President George W. Bush and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson yesterday announced a plan to freeze interest rates to prevent a wave of foreclosures from undoing the six-year U.S. economic expansion. The proposal may force investors in the $6.3 trillion market for home-loan bonds to revalue their holdings.
``It's a step to try and calm the markets,'' said Kevin Giddis, head of fixed-income trading in Memphis, Tennessee, at Morgan Keegan Inc. ``I'm not sure there's any real long-term good that comes from the plan because it's a very complicated process.''
The London interbank offering rate for borrowing dollars for one month was within 2 basis points of the highest level since September, indicating that banks are still reluctant to lend to each other before the end of the year. One-month Libor was little changed at 5.24 percent, according to the British Bankers' Association.
The rates are ``not going up anymore, but they're still quite high,'' said Andrew Brenner, co-head of structured products in New York at MF Global Ltd. ``There's still a desire to have Treasuries on your book at year-end.''
Two-year notes yielded 99 basis points less than 10-year notes, within 3 basis points of the biggest difference since January 2005. The widened gap suggests increased demand for the safety of shorter-term debt in anticipation of Fed rate cuts.
The yield on the two-year note will be 3.26 percent, while the 10-year note's yield will reach 4.16 percent by year-end, according to Bloomberg News surveys of economists. The most recent responses are given the heaviest weightings.
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
If you don't like it you can lump it
una bella flag in formazione sullo spoore
una bella flag in formazione sullo spoore
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
rotto quel supporto che hai tracciato sul grafo di sotto c'è ancora tutta la zona 113-114 a fare da paracadute ( ricordi la famosa quota totemica 113,5 )
per rompere anche questa deve proprio capovolgersi il quadro macro , ovvero verificarsi il fatto che il bernakka si fermi nel tagliare e decida di dare la caccia all'inflazione oppure ancora che si inverta la curva
la vola è tornata quella di un tempo
cià vecio
e cià a tutti, see u next weeeek
per rompere anche questa deve proprio capovolgersi il quadro macro , ovvero verificarsi il fatto che il bernakka si fermi nel tagliare e decida di dare la caccia all'inflazione oppure ancora che si inverta la curva
la vola è tornata quella di un tempo
cià vecio
e cià a tutti, see u next weeeek
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