Ciao a tutti
, mi ci è voluto un pò ma ho letto la vostra ultima settimana da queste pagine e vedo che vi siete divertiti parecchio - vi confesso che mi mancate parecchio, tutta quella emozione da flatulenze ed affini
- facciamo il punto: la coperta è una sola, da un lato l'economia us è drogata da tassi bassi e de facto dumping commerciale attraverso la leva del cambio contro la vecchia europa, dall'altro non si possono permettere che il resto del mondo si rompa le palle e non investa più nei loro assets (azioni e soprattutto bond, sennò il buco come lo finanziano
?) - morale: i mercati sono in attesa di capire quale sarà la prossima mossa, ossia un rally disperato dei bond perchè tanto il mondo, per quanto stia bene, non sta poi così bene e quindi .. tassi bassi all'infinito
, oppure quando meno ce l'aspettiamo arriva una sonora presa di beneficio che un bid non si trova manco sull'aria che si respira
...vedrem...nel dubbio continuo a pensare che il trade corretto sia lungo europa corto us, ma...i cambi sono la chiave ...buona lettura e buona notte
DJ Debt Futures Little Changed; Currency Trade Remains A Key Focus
By Allen Sykora
BEND, Ore. (Dow Jones)--Interest-rate futures in Chicago are near steady
in early trading Monday, perhaps being underpinned by the recent softness in
the U.S. dollar but otherwise having little fresh news to react to on a
morning when there are no major economic reports, analysts said.
At 0744 CT (1344 GMT), December 10-year notes were unchanged at 112-09.5,
December Treasury bonds were up 1 tick at 112-24, and June Eurodollars were
down 2 basis points at 96.85.
"We're keeping an eye on the currency trade," said Lara Akin, financial
futures analyst in Chicago with Refco.com.
The U.S. dollar has not had any big swings so far. Nevertheless, it's
not recovering yet either, and that leaves the markets wondering whether
there could be central-bank intervention on the dollar's behalf. If so, this
is considered supportive for U.S. fixed-income products on ideas those
intervention flows would end up in government securities, Akin explained.
There was no new language in a Group of 20 statement to worry traders
that intervention is just around the corner, with only Japan being described
as willing to prop up the sagging U.S. currency.
"You're seeing traders taking that as tacit support from the G20 for a
weaker currency," said Akin. "That's supporting a dollar decline. And the
possibility of intervention increases as the dollar declines."
Otherwise, said Akin, it could be a quiet day with no major U.S.
economic reports.
"I think it's going to be kind of a quiet week as well," she
said. "Japan is closed tomorrow (Tuesday) and we close early on Wednesday. A
lot of books are closed, so we could see things stabilize."
Akin put support for December 10-year notes at 112-02 and resistance at
112-27. Support for December Treasury bonds was listed at 112-08 and
resistance at 113-01.
In June Eurodollars, Akin put support at 96.84 and resistance at 96.91.
While no major U.S. economic reports are on the calendar for Monday, the
market gets October existing-home sales on Tuesday, along with a $24 billion
auction of two-year notes.
Several reports are on tap for Wednesday, including some earlier than
normal due to the Thanksgiving weekend. Reports due out on the final day
before the holiday include weekly initial jobless claims, durable-goods
orders, University of Michigan consumer-sentiment index and new-home sales.
-By Allen Sykora; Dow Jones Newswires; 541-318-8765;
[email protected]
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
