BUND-T/BOND-NOTE e tifiamo per dan a 113 e 1.20

Long-term US Treasuries' yields rise as curve bets unwind



By Wayne Cole

NEW YORK, Nov 30 (Reuters) - Longer-term Treasury yields hit four-month highs for a second straight session on Tuesday as U.S. data offered generally upbeat news on the economy, though consumers seemed reluctant to believe it.

The Chicago purchasing management index of business activity pulled back to a still-strong 65.2 in November after jumping to a lofty 68.5 the previous month. The employment index hit its highest level since 1988, while prices paid were at highs not seen since 1980.

In contrast, the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence declined to 90.5 in November from 92.8 in October, surprising analysts who had looked for a rise to 96.5. Furthermore, the measure of difficulty in finding jobs actually rose despite better news on the labor market.

"I guess the confidence numbers should be a positive for the market, the purchasing managers should be negative and netted out we're down slightly," said Evan Rourke, bond strategist at Popular Securities.

"I think the market is more enthralled with technical factors we have at month-end so people were not as attendant to the numbers had there been nothing else going on," he added.

Some funds may need to make last-minute Treasury purchases to match a large extension in the average duration of the indexes they track, which helped the market pare early losses.

The 10-year note <US10YT=RR> was down 4/32 in price, having already shed 24/32 on Monday in a technical and rumor-driven sell-off. Yields were at 4.34 percent, from 4.32 percent late on Monday, after rising as high as 4.37 percent at one point.

The major driving force behind the fall was an urge to take profits on curve-flattening trades, which have been all the rage in recent weeks. This involved dumping longer-term debt and buying back shorter-term paper.

Two-year notes <US2YT=RR> were 2/32 firmer in price on the session, lowering yields to 3.03 percent from 3.06 percent. The five-year note <US5YT=RR> held steady at 3.70 percent. But the 30-year bond <US30YT=RR> dropped 11/32, lifting its yield to 4.99 percent from 4.97 percent.

The two-year note had sharply underperformed the market recently as investors bet spreads between short- and long-term yields would continue to narrow.

As those trades unwound on Tuesday the gap between two- and 10-year yields widened five basis points to 131 basis points, after hitting a low of 121 last week.

Earlier, data showed the U.S. economy expanded at a slightly faster pace than first thought in the third quarter, though inflation remained subdued.

The second reading of gross domestic product showed growth of 3.9 percent, up from an initial estimate of 3.7 percent. Analysts noted the revisions showed better consumption and a smaller build-up in inventories, which should be favorable for growth this quarter.

"The composition of the changes suggests that higher growth than we are currently forecasting for the fourth quarter, of 3.5 percent, is increasingly likely," said Drew Matus, U.S. financial markets economist at Lehman Brothers.

"Inventories need to be rebuilt, as the still-low levels of inventories to shipments show, while the weakening dollar will only reinforce the trade balance improvement in the near term," he added.

Signs of strength in the economy tend to hurt fixed-income debt since it increases the risk of higher inflation down the track while making it more likely the Federal Reserve will keep raising borrowing costs.

The market has already priced in a better than 90 percent chance the Fed will hike rates to 2.25 percent at its Dec. 14 meeting and is not far from fully pricing in a 3.0 percent rate by May. ((Reporting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Dan Grebler; Reuters Messaging: [email protected]; Tel: 646-223-6278)) ((Multimedia versions of Reuters Top News are now available for: * 3000 Xtra: visit http://topnews.session.rservices.com * BridgeStation: view story .134 For more information on Top News: http://topnews.reuters.com))




-------------- MARKET SNAPSHOT AT 1541 GMT ----------------------------
Dec Eurodollar <EDZ4> 97.52 (+0.00)
Dec T-Bond <USZ4> 111-08/32 (-07/32)
Dec 10-year note <TYZ4> 111-15/32 (+01/32)
Change vs Current
Nyk yield
Three-month bills<US3MT=RR> 2.18 (-0.01) 2.223
Six-month bills <US6MT=RR> 2.38 (-0.01) 2.442
Two-year note <US2YT=RR> 99-22/32 (+02/32) 3.037
Five-year note <US5YT=RR> 99-03/32 (unch) 3.702
10-year note <US10YT=RR> 99-07/32 (-06/32) 4.347
30-year bond <US30YT=RR> 105-15/32 (-15/32) 4.999
 
hanno veramente rotto il quazzo...fib fermato preciso sulla fama oggi a 29595 non c'e' versi di romperla...bund non ne parliamo che non scende neanche se il t-bond va a 80 ....oramai quasi correlazione inversa....euro nuovi massimi anche oggi anche se si sta prendendo una pausa...e la sagra (del baccello che sono io) continua...


ciao gente a domani forse...
 
dan24 ha scritto:
hanno veramente rotto il quazzo...fib fermato preciso sulla fama oggi a 29595 non c'e' versi di romperla...bund non ne parliamo che non scende neanche se il t-bond va a 80 ....oramai quasi correlazione inversa....euro nuovi massimi anche oggi anche se si sta prendendo una pausa...e la sagra (del baccello che sono io) continua...


ciao gente a domani forse...

ciao daniel...
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Back
Alto