qui si parla di ulteriori aperture di spread buy Bund-sell treasuries sulla scommessa che il divario si amplificherà ulteriormente
U.S. Treasuries slip anew on firm data, soft oil
(Adds ISM data, reaction)
By Wayne Cole
NEW YORK, Dec 1 (Reuters) - Treasury debt prices swung lower on Wednesday after a firm reading on U.S. manufacturing provided a fresh excuse to sell in an already bearish market.
The Institute for Supply Management's main activity index rose to 57.8 in November from 56.8 the month before, just topping forecasts of a rise to 57.0. The breakdown was stronger with new orders up and the employment index bouncing after a drop in October.
The gain in employment stoked speculation that the November payrolls report on Friday will show another healthy rise in jobs, though the correlation between the two reports is not especially strong.
"Employment is the big number because it's up 3 points," said Cary Leahey, senior U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities. "It supports the case for a 200,000 gain in November payrolls."
In turn, strength in payrolls would make it more likely the Federal Reserve would keep raising interest rates well into the new year. Futures <0#FF:> show a better than 90 percent chance of a hike to 2.25 percent at the Fed's next meeting on Dec. 14 and are already pricing in rates of 3.0 percent by May.
The figures, coupled with a fresh drop in oil prices <0#CL:>, were enough to sap the steam from a technical bounce after two days of heavy selling. The benchmark 10-year note <US10YT=RR> turned 5/32 lower, taking yields to 4.37 percent from 4.35 percent late Tuesday.
Traders said fresh sell orders were lurking around 4.30 percent, and bears were looking for a retracement to 4.41 percent or to July's peak of 4.64 percent.
Investors were again unwinding recent curve-flattening bets, meaning they were selling longer-dated debt to buy back shorter-term paper.
This trade had been all the rage in recent week and saw the spread between two- and 10-year yields narrow to three-year lows of 118 basis points last week. Since then, the wave of profit-taking has seen the gap widen out to 136 basis points, or 1.36 percentage points.
On Wednesday, the two-year Treasury note <US2YT=RR> was up 1/32 in price, lowering its yield to 2.99 percent from 3.01 percent late Tuesday. The five-year note <US5YT=RR> added 2/32, taking yields to 3.69 percent from 3.70 percent.
In contrast, the 30-year bond <US30YT=RR> shed 10/32, lifting its yield to 5.03 percent from 5.00 percent.
Traders also reported more selling of Treasuries and buying of euro debt on a bet the spread between the two will continue to widen. This has been a profitable investment since the gap between Treasury yields and those on euro debt has blown out to 60 basis points from just 17 a month ago.
Earlier, bonds took some comfort in data showing a still benign inflation picture, though consumers were still spending beyond their means.
Personal consumption rose 0.7 percent in October, easily beating forecasts. Some of that was eaten up by price rises so real inflation-adjusted spending gained 0.3 percent, though that was still better than most analysts expected.
Incomes rose 0.6 percent, but since that was outstripped by spending, the savings rate fell to a lowly 0.2 percent.
Meanwhile, the core personal consumption expenditures price index rose just 0.1 percent on the month when many analysts had feared a rise of double that. The annual rate stayed at 1.5 percent, well within the Fed's presumed comfort range.
"Bottom line: a good start to the fourth quarter for consumers, likely to result in an upward revision to the consensus GDP forecast closer to our 4.0 percent call," said Chris Low, chief economist at FTN Financial.
"On the inflation front, energy seems the only real threat in the PCE deflator. In contrast to the core CPI, which has trended higher all year, the deflator has been flat at about 1.5 percent since passing through 1 percent in the first quarter," he added.
