bund, t-bond t-note ecc SOLO LONG FOR EVER
- Creatore Discussione dan24
- Data di Inizio
gastronomo
Forumer storico
U.S. July Producer Prices Rise 1%; Core Prices Increase 0.4% Aug. 17 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. producer prices rose a larger- than-forecast 1 percent in July, driven by higher energy costs, a government report showed today. Prices excluding energy and food also rose more than expected.
The July reading in prices paid to factories, farmers and other producers followed no change in June, the Labor Department said in Washington. The core measure, which excludes energy and food, rose 0.4 percent, the most since January, driven in part by higher vehicle prices. The core was forecast to rise 0.1 percent.
The rise in wholesale costs follows announced price increases by American Airlines and steelmaker Nucor Corp. and suggests companies are having limited success in passing on higher raw materials costs as demand strengthens. The Federal Reserve said last week that pricing pressures remain ``elevated,'' and signaled it will keep raising interest rates to restrain inflation.
``Energy costs are slowly but surely passing through to finished goods prices, so we expect the Fed to continue to ratchet up rates,'' said Michael Gregory, senior economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc. in Toronto, before the report. ``The Fed's thinking is that they have to be vigilant'' to keep inflation contained, he said.
The Labor Department said yesterday that higher gasoline and other energy costs pushed up the consumer price index by 0.5 percent in July, the most in three months. Cheaper cars and clothing helped ease the burden of higher prices at the pump and showed record fuel costs have yet to spill over to prices paid by consumers, the report showed.
Core Consumer Prices
Excluding energy and food, consumer prices increased 0.1 percent for a third month. Typically, the Labor Department releases the producer price index before the consumer price index. Because the department is gathering consumer price information quicker from data collectors in the field, the CPI will be released in advance of the PPI in October and December as well, Labor said.
Economists were expecting a 0.5 percent rise in producer prices, based on the median estimate of 63 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Estimates ranged from increases of 0.3 percent to 1 percent.
Producer prices were up 4.6 percent for the 12 months ended in July compared with a 3.6 percent year-over-year gain the previous month. Core prices were 2.8 percent higher compared with a 2.2 percent year-over-year increase in June. The year-over-year rise in July was the biggest since November 1995.
So far this year, producer prices are rising at a 3.9 percent annual rate compared with a 3.6 percent increase at the same time last year. Core prices are rising at a 2.6 percent annual pace, up from a 1.7 percent rate in the first 7 months of 2004.
Energy Prices
Crude oil and gasoline prices jumped in July on their way to records this month on speculation on that fuel demand may surpass production capacity. Crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange averaged $59.03 in July, up from $56.42 the prior month. Crude futures rose to a record $67.10 a barrel last week.
Energy prices jumped 4.4 percent last month after climbing 2 percent in June. Heating oil costs rose 5.1 percent and the price of gasoline surged 10.9 percent, the most since October.
Passenger car prices rose 1.5 percent in July, the biggest rise since March 2003, following a decline of 1 percent in June. Costs of light trucks increased 1.4 percent.
Prices of materials used at the earliest stage of the production process, including scrap steel and timber, rose 6.7 percent after dropping 3.3 percent in June. Excluding food and energy, core raw materials prices jumped 8.4 percent from the same month last year.
Intermediate Goods
Costs of intermediate goods, products that are partially finished such as lumber and steel, rose 1 percent after a rise of 0.1 percent in June. Excluding food and energy, intermediate prices fell 0.1 percent after falling 0.2 percent in June.
Food prices fell 0.3 percent after falling 1.1 percent, the Labor Department said.
Prices for capital equipment rose 0.5 percent following a decline of 0.2 percent. Computer prices declined 2.1 percent, compared with a 0.8 percent drop in June.
Atlanta-based Novelis Inc., the aluminum sheet maker spun off from Alcan Inc., said ceilings on contracts with canmakers prevented the company from raising prices enough to make up for higher costs to buy aluminum, resulting in a second quarter net loss.
Federal Reserve
Foreign companies who have been helped by a strong dollar are also helping hold down prices. The Labor Department said last week that prices of imported goods other than petroleum products fell for a third consecutive month in July.
The Fed signaled last week that it will continue to raise overnight lending rates to keep increases in labor and energy costs from broadening as economic growth accelerates. The Federal Open Market Committee lifted interest rates a quarter percentage point to 3.5 percent and repeated a plan to carry out further increases at a ``measured'' pace.
``Core inflation has been relatively low in recent months and longer-term inflation expectations remain well contained, but pressures on inflation have stayed elevated,'' the committee said Aug. 9 after its meeting in Washington.
Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan told Congress last month that higher labor costs and energy prices, as well as the effects of low long-term interest rates on overall demand, are risks to moderate inflation and economic growth.
Steel and Airfares
Some companies have had limited success in boosting prices to defray higher supply costs.
Charlotte, North Carolina-based Nucor Corp., the second- biggest U.S. steelmaker, said Aug. 8 it would increase its price for steel sheet for September delivery by about 15 percent to cover scrap costs and reverse a 10-month slide in prices that has hurt profit. Steel-sheet prices had fallen 39 percent in July from the peak in September, according to Purchasing Magazine.
American Airlines, the world's largest air carrier, and Northwest Airlines Corp. last week raised U.S. fares to help cope with record jet-fuel prices, following competitors such as Delta Air Lines Inc. and United Airlines. Increased competition from Southwest Airlines Co. and other low-fare airlines have prevented the larger airlines from raising fares on some routes.
To contact the reporter on this story:
Joe Richter in Washington [email protected].
The July reading in prices paid to factories, farmers and other producers followed no change in June, the Labor Department said in Washington. The core measure, which excludes energy and food, rose 0.4 percent, the most since January, driven in part by higher vehicle prices. The core was forecast to rise 0.1 percent.
The rise in wholesale costs follows announced price increases by American Airlines and steelmaker Nucor Corp. and suggests companies are having limited success in passing on higher raw materials costs as demand strengthens. The Federal Reserve said last week that pricing pressures remain ``elevated,'' and signaled it will keep raising interest rates to restrain inflation.
``Energy costs are slowly but surely passing through to finished goods prices, so we expect the Fed to continue to ratchet up rates,'' said Michael Gregory, senior economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc. in Toronto, before the report. ``The Fed's thinking is that they have to be vigilant'' to keep inflation contained, he said.
The Labor Department said yesterday that higher gasoline and other energy costs pushed up the consumer price index by 0.5 percent in July, the most in three months. Cheaper cars and clothing helped ease the burden of higher prices at the pump and showed record fuel costs have yet to spill over to prices paid by consumers, the report showed.
Core Consumer Prices
Excluding energy and food, consumer prices increased 0.1 percent for a third month. Typically, the Labor Department releases the producer price index before the consumer price index. Because the department is gathering consumer price information quicker from data collectors in the field, the CPI will be released in advance of the PPI in October and December as well, Labor said.
Economists were expecting a 0.5 percent rise in producer prices, based on the median estimate of 63 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Estimates ranged from increases of 0.3 percent to 1 percent.
Producer prices were up 4.6 percent for the 12 months ended in July compared with a 3.6 percent year-over-year gain the previous month. Core prices were 2.8 percent higher compared with a 2.2 percent year-over-year increase in June. The year-over-year rise in July was the biggest since November 1995.
So far this year, producer prices are rising at a 3.9 percent annual rate compared with a 3.6 percent increase at the same time last year. Core prices are rising at a 2.6 percent annual pace, up from a 1.7 percent rate in the first 7 months of 2004.
Energy Prices
Crude oil and gasoline prices jumped in July on their way to records this month on speculation on that fuel demand may surpass production capacity. Crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange averaged $59.03 in July, up from $56.42 the prior month. Crude futures rose to a record $67.10 a barrel last week.
Energy prices jumped 4.4 percent last month after climbing 2 percent in June. Heating oil costs rose 5.1 percent and the price of gasoline surged 10.9 percent, the most since October.
Passenger car prices rose 1.5 percent in July, the biggest rise since March 2003, following a decline of 1 percent in June. Costs of light trucks increased 1.4 percent.
Prices of materials used at the earliest stage of the production process, including scrap steel and timber, rose 6.7 percent after dropping 3.3 percent in June. Excluding food and energy, core raw materials prices jumped 8.4 percent from the same month last year.
Intermediate Goods
Costs of intermediate goods, products that are partially finished such as lumber and steel, rose 1 percent after a rise of 0.1 percent in June. Excluding food and energy, intermediate prices fell 0.1 percent after falling 0.2 percent in June.
Food prices fell 0.3 percent after falling 1.1 percent, the Labor Department said.
Prices for capital equipment rose 0.5 percent following a decline of 0.2 percent. Computer prices declined 2.1 percent, compared with a 0.8 percent drop in June.
Atlanta-based Novelis Inc., the aluminum sheet maker spun off from Alcan Inc., said ceilings on contracts with canmakers prevented the company from raising prices enough to make up for higher costs to buy aluminum, resulting in a second quarter net loss.
Federal Reserve
Foreign companies who have been helped by a strong dollar are also helping hold down prices. The Labor Department said last week that prices of imported goods other than petroleum products fell for a third consecutive month in July.
The Fed signaled last week that it will continue to raise overnight lending rates to keep increases in labor and energy costs from broadening as economic growth accelerates. The Federal Open Market Committee lifted interest rates a quarter percentage point to 3.5 percent and repeated a plan to carry out further increases at a ``measured'' pace.
``Core inflation has been relatively low in recent months and longer-term inflation expectations remain well contained, but pressures on inflation have stayed elevated,'' the committee said Aug. 9 after its meeting in Washington.
Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan told Congress last month that higher labor costs and energy prices, as well as the effects of low long-term interest rates on overall demand, are risks to moderate inflation and economic growth.
Steel and Airfares
Some companies have had limited success in boosting prices to defray higher supply costs.
Charlotte, North Carolina-based Nucor Corp., the second- biggest U.S. steelmaker, said Aug. 8 it would increase its price for steel sheet for September delivery by about 15 percent to cover scrap costs and reverse a 10-month slide in prices that has hurt profit. Steel-sheet prices had fallen 39 percent in July from the peak in September, according to Purchasing Magazine.
American Airlines, the world's largest air carrier, and Northwest Airlines Corp. last week raised U.S. fares to help cope with record jet-fuel prices, following competitors such as Delta Air Lines Inc. and United Airlines. Increased competition from Southwest Airlines Co. and other low-fare airlines have prevented the larger airlines from raising fares on some routes.
To contact the reporter on this story:
Joe Richter in Washington [email protected].
gastronomo
Forumer storico
US Treasuries dive after strong July PPI
Wed Aug 17, 2005 08:38 AM ET
NEW YORK, Aug 17 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasuries prices dove on Wednesday after the producer price index for July came in much stronger than expected, spurring fears the Fed may have to aggressively increase interest rates to combat inflation.
July PPI rose 1.0 percent from an unchanged level in June, while the core reading excluding food and energy rose 0.4 percent from a decrease of 0.1 percent in June.
Analysts on average had been looking for July PPI to gain 0.5 percent, and for the core reading excluding food and energy to climb 0.1 percent.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury note (US10YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) extended its early slight losses, falling 10/32 in price to yield 4.25 percent from 4.21 percent late on Tuesday.
Wed Aug 17, 2005 08:38 AM ET
NEW YORK, Aug 17 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasuries prices dove on Wednesday after the producer price index for July came in much stronger than expected, spurring fears the Fed may have to aggressively increase interest rates to combat inflation.
July PPI rose 1.0 percent from an unchanged level in June, while the core reading excluding food and energy rose 0.4 percent from a decrease of 0.1 percent in June.
Analysts on average had been looking for July PPI to gain 0.5 percent, and for the core reading excluding food and energy to climb 0.1 percent.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury note (US10YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) extended its early slight losses, falling 10/32 in price to yield 4.25 percent from 4.21 percent late on Tuesday.
gastronomo
Forumer storico
US Treasuries sink, producer prices looking frothy
Wed Aug 17, 2005 09:22 AM ET
By Pedro Nicolaci da Costa
NEW YORK, Aug 17 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices were swept lower on Wednesday as July producer price inflation accelerated much more quickly than analysts had forecast.
Soaring energy costs knocked U.S. producer prices up 1.0 percent last month, double expectations. Excluding food and energy, core prices jumped 0.4 percent, when investors had expected a much more muted 0.1 percent gain.
After paring some knee-jerk losses, benchmark 10-year notes (US10YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) lost 5/32 for a yield of 4.24 percent, with 4.25 percent proving solid support. Yields closed Tuesday's session at 4.21 percent, their lowest close in August.
The market's concern over the PPI surprise was alleviated somewhat by a contained reading on core consumer prices data reported Tuesday.
However most analysts agreed that rising prices at the wholesale level would, at the very least, keep the Federal Reserve on a steady path of higher interest rates.
"It raises the probability that the Fed will not pause this year," said Anthony Chan, senior economist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. "The Fed may play it safe and remain in play in 2006."
That likelihood helped push two-year notes (US2YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) 2/32 lower for a yield of 4.04 percent, up from 4.00 percent on Tuesday. Five-year notes (US5YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) fell 4/32 to yield 4.11 percent from 4.08 percent, while the 30-year bond (US30YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) dropped 12/32 for a yield of 4.44 percent.
Most forecasters now agree that the Fed will raise interest rates for at least another two meetings, and some are banking that it will not skip a meeting until next year.
The central bank raised its target federal funds rate for the tenth straight time last week, bringing it to 3.50 percent.
Treasury yields had spiked to four-month highs last week as signs that growth was picking up even as inflation stayed contained sparked talk of a "goldilocks" economic scenario.
But that picture has started to unravel in the last few sessions, with data from the retail sector falling short of expectations and many worrying that a heavily indebted U.S. consumer might be starting to falter.
One major obstacle to solid economic growth is the oil sector, where reaching new record highs have become an almost weekly occurrence.
The price on a barrel of crude touched $67 a barrel last week, and many analysts fear the economy cannot sustain such a drain on consumers' disposable income from energy costs.
Energy was certainly to blame for much of the outsized increase in the PPI.
Prices for finished energy goods rose 4.4 percent in July, the Labor Department said, while finished consumer food prices fell 0.3 percent.
"A big increase in gas prices could make the Fed worried about a slowing in the economy later," said Elisabeth Denison, economist at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein. "And now producers are starting to suffer from high oil prices and this will eat into corporate profits."
But even outside of those volatile areas, core producer prices climbed 0.4 percent.
The producer price report showed a 1.5 percent increase in car prices and a 1.4 percent rise in prices for light trucks and SUVs. Stripping out car and light truck prices, core PPI rose just 0.2 percent last month.
But further back in the production pipeline, intermediate goods prices climbed a steep 1.0 percent, while prices for crude goods jumped 6.7 percent.
© Reuters 2005. All Rights Reserved.
Wed Aug 17, 2005 09:22 AM ET
By Pedro Nicolaci da Costa
NEW YORK, Aug 17 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices were swept lower on Wednesday as July producer price inflation accelerated much more quickly than analysts had forecast.
Soaring energy costs knocked U.S. producer prices up 1.0 percent last month, double expectations. Excluding food and energy, core prices jumped 0.4 percent, when investors had expected a much more muted 0.1 percent gain.
After paring some knee-jerk losses, benchmark 10-year notes (US10YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) lost 5/32 for a yield of 4.24 percent, with 4.25 percent proving solid support. Yields closed Tuesday's session at 4.21 percent, their lowest close in August.
The market's concern over the PPI surprise was alleviated somewhat by a contained reading on core consumer prices data reported Tuesday.
However most analysts agreed that rising prices at the wholesale level would, at the very least, keep the Federal Reserve on a steady path of higher interest rates.
"It raises the probability that the Fed will not pause this year," said Anthony Chan, senior economist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. "The Fed may play it safe and remain in play in 2006."
That likelihood helped push two-year notes (US2YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) 2/32 lower for a yield of 4.04 percent, up from 4.00 percent on Tuesday. Five-year notes (US5YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) fell 4/32 to yield 4.11 percent from 4.08 percent, while the 30-year bond (US30YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) dropped 12/32 for a yield of 4.44 percent.
Most forecasters now agree that the Fed will raise interest rates for at least another two meetings, and some are banking that it will not skip a meeting until next year.
The central bank raised its target federal funds rate for the tenth straight time last week, bringing it to 3.50 percent.
Treasury yields had spiked to four-month highs last week as signs that growth was picking up even as inflation stayed contained sparked talk of a "goldilocks" economic scenario.
But that picture has started to unravel in the last few sessions, with data from the retail sector falling short of expectations and many worrying that a heavily indebted U.S. consumer might be starting to falter.
One major obstacle to solid economic growth is the oil sector, where reaching new record highs have become an almost weekly occurrence.
The price on a barrel of crude touched $67 a barrel last week, and many analysts fear the economy cannot sustain such a drain on consumers' disposable income from energy costs.
Energy was certainly to blame for much of the outsized increase in the PPI.
Prices for finished energy goods rose 4.4 percent in July, the Labor Department said, while finished consumer food prices fell 0.3 percent.
"A big increase in gas prices could make the Fed worried about a slowing in the economy later," said Elisabeth Denison, economist at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein. "And now producers are starting to suffer from high oil prices and this will eat into corporate profits."
But even outside of those volatile areas, core producer prices climbed 0.4 percent.
The producer price report showed a 1.5 percent increase in car prices and a 1.4 percent rise in prices for light trucks and SUVs. Stripping out car and light truck prices, core PPI rose just 0.2 percent last month.
But further back in the production pipeline, intermediate goods prices climbed a steep 1.0 percent, while prices for crude goods jumped 6.7 percent.
© Reuters 2005. All Rights Reserved.
gastronomo
Forumer storico
Wholesale Inflation Jumps on Gas Prices
Wednesday August 17, 12:14 pm ET
By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer
Wholesale Inflation Jumps by Biggest Amount in 9 Months, Reflecting Hit Being Taken at Gas Pumps
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Inflation at the wholesale level increased by the largest amount in nine months in July, reflecting the hit consumers are taking at gas pumps.
The Labor Department reported that its Producer Price Index, which measures price pressures before they reach the consumer, jumped by 1 percent in July, the biggest advance since a 1.5 percent increase last October.
ADVERTISEMENT
The report on wholesale prices depicted many of the same price pressures shown in the 0.5 percent increase in consumer prices reported on Tuesday. However, the wholesale report showed that the core rate of inflation, excluding energy and food, rose by a worrisome 0.4 percent in July, the biggest increase since January.
Core inflation at the retail level rose by a much more modest 0.1 percent in July. The biggest difference in the two reports was in the measurement of new car prices.
Car prices fell by 1 percent in the report on inflation at the consumer level, the biggest one-month decline in 30 years, while car prices were up 1.5 percent in the wholesale price report.
Analysts said part of the difference could be explained by the fact that the wholesale report measures inflation pressures at a different stage of the supply chain. The wholesale price report caught the introduction of attractive incentive offers in June while the consumer report did not pick up those incentives until the July report.
The jump in car prices accounted for about half of the increase in core inflation in the July PPI report.
Economists said that intense competition, fueled by a flood of lower-priced imports, is still helping to keep a lid on inflation outside of energy at the consumer level although higher wholesale prices are having an impact on corporate profits.
"With productivity slowing, wage gains accelerating and now other input costs on the rise, the outlook for profits is becoming much more muddled," said Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors in Holland, Pa.
In late morning trading, the Dow Jones industrial average was up about 44 points as investors were heartened by a slight retreat in oil prices.
The wholesale price report showed that energy prices rose by 4.4 percent in July following a 2 percent increase in June.
Gasoline prices were up 10.9 percent, the biggest surge since a 12.8 percent rise last October. Analysts caution that motorists should be braced for another large increase in gasoline costs in August, reflecting the fact that gasoline prices have continued to rise in recent weeks as oil prices have surged above $66 per barrel.
The government reported Monday that the average nationwide price for gasoline rose to $2.55 per gallon in its latest survey, up 18 cents per gallon in just one week.
Analysts, however, believe that this year's oil shock will not push the country into a recession like the oil shocks of the 1970s and 1980s did because of different circumstances this time around. They contend that this year's oil shock is coming at a time of low inflation pressures outside of energy, which means that the Federal Reserve will not feel the need to aggressively raise interest rates to fight widespread inflation.
The PPI report showed that food costs at the wholesale level fell for a fourth consecutive month, dropping by 0.3 percent in July as the costs of fresh vegetables, fruits and beef all declined.
Over the past 12 months, wholesale prices have risen by 4.6 percent while the core inflation rate, excluding food and energy, has risen by a more modest 2.8 percent.
Computers were one area where prices continued to decline, falling 2.1 percent in July.
Wednesday August 17, 12:14 pm ET
By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer
Wholesale Inflation Jumps by Biggest Amount in 9 Months, Reflecting Hit Being Taken at Gas Pumps
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Inflation at the wholesale level increased by the largest amount in nine months in July, reflecting the hit consumers are taking at gas pumps.
The Labor Department reported that its Producer Price Index, which measures price pressures before they reach the consumer, jumped by 1 percent in July, the biggest advance since a 1.5 percent increase last October.
ADVERTISEMENT
The report on wholesale prices depicted many of the same price pressures shown in the 0.5 percent increase in consumer prices reported on Tuesday. However, the wholesale report showed that the core rate of inflation, excluding energy and food, rose by a worrisome 0.4 percent in July, the biggest increase since January.
Core inflation at the retail level rose by a much more modest 0.1 percent in July. The biggest difference in the two reports was in the measurement of new car prices.
Car prices fell by 1 percent in the report on inflation at the consumer level, the biggest one-month decline in 30 years, while car prices were up 1.5 percent in the wholesale price report.
Analysts said part of the difference could be explained by the fact that the wholesale report measures inflation pressures at a different stage of the supply chain. The wholesale price report caught the introduction of attractive incentive offers in June while the consumer report did not pick up those incentives until the July report.
The jump in car prices accounted for about half of the increase in core inflation in the July PPI report.
Economists said that intense competition, fueled by a flood of lower-priced imports, is still helping to keep a lid on inflation outside of energy at the consumer level although higher wholesale prices are having an impact on corporate profits.
"With productivity slowing, wage gains accelerating and now other input costs on the rise, the outlook for profits is becoming much more muddled," said Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors in Holland, Pa.
In late morning trading, the Dow Jones industrial average was up about 44 points as investors were heartened by a slight retreat in oil prices.
The wholesale price report showed that energy prices rose by 4.4 percent in July following a 2 percent increase in June.
Gasoline prices were up 10.9 percent, the biggest surge since a 12.8 percent rise last October. Analysts caution that motorists should be braced for another large increase in gasoline costs in August, reflecting the fact that gasoline prices have continued to rise in recent weeks as oil prices have surged above $66 per barrel.
The government reported Monday that the average nationwide price for gasoline rose to $2.55 per gallon in its latest survey, up 18 cents per gallon in just one week.
Analysts, however, believe that this year's oil shock will not push the country into a recession like the oil shocks of the 1970s and 1980s did because of different circumstances this time around. They contend that this year's oil shock is coming at a time of low inflation pressures outside of energy, which means that the Federal Reserve will not feel the need to aggressively raise interest rates to fight widespread inflation.
The PPI report showed that food costs at the wholesale level fell for a fourth consecutive month, dropping by 0.3 percent in July as the costs of fresh vegetables, fruits and beef all declined.
Over the past 12 months, wholesale prices have risen by 4.6 percent while the core inflation rate, excluding food and energy, has risen by a more modest 2.8 percent.
Computers were one area where prices continued to decline, falling 2.1 percent in July.
gastronomo
Forumer storico
Re: Per i moderatori !
US Treasuries nicked by crude oil tumble, PPI jump
Wed Aug 17, 2005 05:22 PM ET
(Updates prices, adds comments; changes dateline, previous NEW YORK)
NASHVILLE, Aug 17 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices fell on Wednesday, hit by an inflation scare from the July producer price index report and later by a sharp decline in energy prices.
Recent strength in bonds has been tied partly to worries that record high crude oil and gasoline prices would undermine consumer confidence and ultimately drag down economic growth over the next few quarters.
Those fears took a back seat on Wednesday as crude oil futures tumbled more than 4 percent and gasoline futures staged a technical reversal from a record high.
The 10-year Treasury note (US10YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) fell 16/32 for a yield of 4.27 percent, up from 4.21 percent on Tuesday and near the first band of resistance at 4.285 percent.
"Presuming it's true that higher oil prices really are disinflationary and good for bonds ... bonds look set to stumble a bit further," said Michael Cartine, senior Treasury analyst at IFR Markets.
Dealers said the surprisingly large jump in July producer prices, both headline and excluding food and energy, would harden the Federal Reserve's resolve to stay vigilant on inflation with more rate increases.
"It's not so much the inflation rate to date that is concerning the Fed, it's the underlying inflation pressures and what that might mean for future inflation," noted Josh Stiles, senior bond strategist at IDEAglobal.
The implied year-end federal funds rate rose marginally, to 4.115 percent from 4.10 percent. But bigger increases were logged for 2006 contracts as traders guessed that the Fed might prolong, rather than accelerate, its tightening.
"We continue to believe that inflation pressures will shift from the goods to the service sector in the next year. We also expect the FOMC to keep tightening policy in 25 bps steps for the foreseeable future," said economists at Goldman Sachs.
July's headline PPI spiked 1.0 percent on higher energy costs, car and truck prices and pharmaceuticals.
Core producer prices were up 0.4 percent against forecasts of a 0.1 percent increase. The year-on-year core increase climbed to 2.8 percent, the fastest rise in core prices since a matching increase for the 12 months ending November 1995.
Mortgage applications rose in the latest week for the first time in a month, the Mortgage Bankers Association said, as borrowers took advantage of a dip in rates to refinance home loans.
To the extent that some pundits think the Fed is trying to deflate the so-called housing bubble with higher interest rates, strong mortgage activity also helped tip yields higher on Wednesday.
Analysts this week have also noted that a relaxation in commercial lending standards -- shown in a Fed survey of major banks on Monday -- is diluting the impact of 10 Federal Open Market Committee rate hikes since June 2004.
The 30-year bond (US30YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) fell 31/32 to yield 4.47 percent, up from 4.42 percent on Tuesday.
Futures helped lead the way lower as Sept 30-year bonds stalled just below the 50-day moving average for a second straight day before tumbling.
Two-year note (US2YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) yields were at 4.05 percent, up from 4.01 percent, after making a stab at the key 4.0-percent level in after-hours trading on Tuesday. Five-year Treasury notes (US5YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) were down 8/32 at a yield of 4.14 percent, up from 4.08 percent.
© Reuters 2005. All Rights Reserved.
US Treasuries nicked by crude oil tumble, PPI jump
Wed Aug 17, 2005 05:22 PM ET
(Updates prices, adds comments; changes dateline, previous NEW YORK)
NASHVILLE, Aug 17 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices fell on Wednesday, hit by an inflation scare from the July producer price index report and later by a sharp decline in energy prices.
Recent strength in bonds has been tied partly to worries that record high crude oil and gasoline prices would undermine consumer confidence and ultimately drag down economic growth over the next few quarters.
Those fears took a back seat on Wednesday as crude oil futures tumbled more than 4 percent and gasoline futures staged a technical reversal from a record high.
The 10-year Treasury note (US10YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) fell 16/32 for a yield of 4.27 percent, up from 4.21 percent on Tuesday and near the first band of resistance at 4.285 percent.
"Presuming it's true that higher oil prices really are disinflationary and good for bonds ... bonds look set to stumble a bit further," said Michael Cartine, senior Treasury analyst at IFR Markets.
Dealers said the surprisingly large jump in July producer prices, both headline and excluding food and energy, would harden the Federal Reserve's resolve to stay vigilant on inflation with more rate increases.
"It's not so much the inflation rate to date that is concerning the Fed, it's the underlying inflation pressures and what that might mean for future inflation," noted Josh Stiles, senior bond strategist at IDEAglobal.
The implied year-end federal funds rate rose marginally, to 4.115 percent from 4.10 percent. But bigger increases were logged for 2006 contracts as traders guessed that the Fed might prolong, rather than accelerate, its tightening.
"We continue to believe that inflation pressures will shift from the goods to the service sector in the next year. We also expect the FOMC to keep tightening policy in 25 bps steps for the foreseeable future," said economists at Goldman Sachs.
July's headline PPI spiked 1.0 percent on higher energy costs, car and truck prices and pharmaceuticals.
Core producer prices were up 0.4 percent against forecasts of a 0.1 percent increase. The year-on-year core increase climbed to 2.8 percent, the fastest rise in core prices since a matching increase for the 12 months ending November 1995.
Mortgage applications rose in the latest week for the first time in a month, the Mortgage Bankers Association said, as borrowers took advantage of a dip in rates to refinance home loans.
To the extent that some pundits think the Fed is trying to deflate the so-called housing bubble with higher interest rates, strong mortgage activity also helped tip yields higher on Wednesday.
Analysts this week have also noted that a relaxation in commercial lending standards -- shown in a Fed survey of major banks on Monday -- is diluting the impact of 10 Federal Open Market Committee rate hikes since June 2004.
The 30-year bond (US30YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) fell 31/32 to yield 4.47 percent, up from 4.42 percent on Tuesday.
Futures helped lead the way lower as Sept 30-year bonds stalled just below the 50-day moving average for a second straight day before tumbling.
Two-year note (US2YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) yields were at 4.05 percent, up from 4.01 percent, after making a stab at the key 4.0-percent level in after-hours trading on Tuesday. Five-year Treasury notes (US5YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) were down 8/32 at a yield of 4.14 percent, up from 4.08 percent.
© Reuters 2005. All Rights Reserved.
fed52
Nuovo forumer
buongiorno, ripropongo questo messaggio..... forse in questo periodo poco frequentato può essere passato inosservato.....ma il contenuto sta tornando maledettamente attuale.....visto che il bund, nonostante i dati sull'unflazione non siano dei migliori, continua imperterrito la sua corsa
non sono riuscito ad allegare l'immagine per incompatibilità di sistema allora rimando tramite 2 link la lettura su un altro sito, dategli un'occhiata, potrebbe essere una spiegazione interessante:
http://www.finanzaonline.com/forum/showpost.php?p=8409073&postcount=474
http://www.finanzaonline.com/forum/showpost.php?p=8409075&postcount=475
non sono riuscito ad allegare l'immagine per incompatibilità di sistema allora rimando tramite 2 link la lettura su un altro sito, dategli un'occhiata, potrebbe essere una spiegazione interessante:
http://www.finanzaonline.com/forum/showpost.php?p=8409073&postcount=474
http://www.finanzaonline.com/forum/showpost.php?p=8409075&postcount=475
gastronomo
Forumer storico
Grazie, di sicuro anche questo contribuisce a spiegare - cmq oggi mi sa che son partite stop, troppi volumi a mio parere - una garanzia: non ci capisco niente 
gastronomo
Forumer storico
Philly Fed says factory activity jumps in August
Thu Aug 18, 2005 12:06 PM ET
NEW YORK, Aug 18 (Reuters) - Output at factories in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region improved this month as new orders surged, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank said on Thursday.
The Philadelphia Fed said its business activity index jumped to 17.5 in August from 9.6 in July, well above Wall Street analysts' forecasts of a rise to 12.3.
A reading above zero denotes growth in the region's manufacturing sector.
A key indicator of future growth, the new orders index, surged to 19.8 in August from 5.0 and the employment index rose to 6.3 from 3.4 in July. The six-month outlook for business conditions rebounded to 33.4 after dropping sharply in July to 15.3.
The regional survey is one of the first indicators of U.S. manufacturing every month and is often used to gauge the overall state of factories nationwide.
...e il bund è sopra 123 di nuovo
Thu Aug 18, 2005 12:06 PM ET
NEW YORK, Aug 18 (Reuters) - Output at factories in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region improved this month as new orders surged, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank said on Thursday.
The Philadelphia Fed said its business activity index jumped to 17.5 in August from 9.6 in July, well above Wall Street analysts' forecasts of a rise to 12.3.
A reading above zero denotes growth in the region's manufacturing sector.
A key indicator of future growth, the new orders index, surged to 19.8 in August from 5.0 and the employment index rose to 6.3 from 3.4 in July. The six-month outlook for business conditions rebounded to 33.4 after dropping sharply in July to 15.3.
The regional survey is one of the first indicators of U.S. manufacturing every month and is often used to gauge the overall state of factories nationwide.
...e il bund è sopra 123 di nuovo
gastronomo
Forumer storico
UPDATE 1-Philly Fed says factory activity jumps in August
Thu Aug 18, 2005 12:49 PM ET
(Adds analyst comment, market reaction)
By Victoria Thieberger
NEW YORK, Aug 18 (Reuters) - Output at factories in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region rose this month as new orders surged, but companies continue to be squeezed by higher production costs, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank said on Thursday.
The Philadelphia Fed said its business activity index jumped to 17.5 in August from 9.6 in July, well above Wall Street analysts' median forecast for a rise to 12.3 and the highest since April.
A reading above zero denotes growth in the region's manufacturing sector.
"It certainly beat the consensus forecast and shows that so far the manufacturing sector seems to be managing the high oil price environment," said Alex Beuzelin, a foreign exchange market analyst at Ruesch International.
The new orders index, a key indicator of future growth, surged to 19.8 in August from 5.0 and the employment index rose to 6.3 from 3.4 in July.
The regional survey is one of the first indicators of U.S. manufacturing every month and is often used to gauge the overall state of factories nationwide.
COSTS STILL ON THE RISE
The survey's inflation readings showed that although production costs remained high, the prices of manufacturers' own goods slipped.
U.S. Treasury debt prices clung to early gains after the report as investors shrugged off the jump in regional manufacturing and found solace in the subdued inflation readings.
Asked if factory managers were getting squeezed by higher costs, Michael Trebing, senior economic analyst at the Philly Fed, told reporters: "We get that comment frequently from respondents, especially with regard to energy prices."
Firms expect that will continue as input costs rise further, the survey found.
The Philadelphia Fed found 76 percent of manufacturers expect further increases in energy costs this year, 65 percent expect price increases for raw materials and 52 percent expect increases for intermediate goods.
Despite that prospect, producers became more upbeat about the future. The six-month outlook for business conditions rebounded to 33.4 after dropping sharply in July to 15.3.
The national manufacturing sector appears to be recovering from a difficult few months plagued by inventory adjustments.
Other factory indexes, notably the Institute for Supply Management's July national report, showed more strength in manufacturing, leading economists to predict further improvement in the Philadelphia report.
A factory survey from the neighboring New York Fed region released this week was stronger than expected, also led by a surge in new orders.
© Reuters 2005. All Rights Reserved.
Thu Aug 18, 2005 12:49 PM ET
(Adds analyst comment, market reaction)
By Victoria Thieberger
NEW YORK, Aug 18 (Reuters) - Output at factories in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region rose this month as new orders surged, but companies continue to be squeezed by higher production costs, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank said on Thursday.
The Philadelphia Fed said its business activity index jumped to 17.5 in August from 9.6 in July, well above Wall Street analysts' median forecast for a rise to 12.3 and the highest since April.
A reading above zero denotes growth in the region's manufacturing sector.
"It certainly beat the consensus forecast and shows that so far the manufacturing sector seems to be managing the high oil price environment," said Alex Beuzelin, a foreign exchange market analyst at Ruesch International.
The new orders index, a key indicator of future growth, surged to 19.8 in August from 5.0 and the employment index rose to 6.3 from 3.4 in July.
The regional survey is one of the first indicators of U.S. manufacturing every month and is often used to gauge the overall state of factories nationwide.
COSTS STILL ON THE RISE
The survey's inflation readings showed that although production costs remained high, the prices of manufacturers' own goods slipped.
U.S. Treasury debt prices clung to early gains after the report as investors shrugged off the jump in regional manufacturing and found solace in the subdued inflation readings.
Asked if factory managers were getting squeezed by higher costs, Michael Trebing, senior economic analyst at the Philly Fed, told reporters: "We get that comment frequently from respondents, especially with regard to energy prices."
Firms expect that will continue as input costs rise further, the survey found.
The Philadelphia Fed found 76 percent of manufacturers expect further increases in energy costs this year, 65 percent expect price increases for raw materials and 52 percent expect increases for intermediate goods.
Despite that prospect, producers became more upbeat about the future. The six-month outlook for business conditions rebounded to 33.4 after dropping sharply in July to 15.3.
The national manufacturing sector appears to be recovering from a difficult few months plagued by inventory adjustments.
Other factory indexes, notably the Institute for Supply Management's July national report, showed more strength in manufacturing, leading economists to predict further improvement in the Philadelphia report.
A factory survey from the neighboring New York Fed region released this week was stronger than expected, also led by a surge in new orders.
© Reuters 2005. All Rights Reserved.
Similar threads
