gastronomo
Forumer storico
Povero andrea, non bastavano i mercati, pure il temporale a far danni... 
bund, t-bond t-note ecc SOLO LONG FOR EVER
- Creatore Discussione dan24
- Data di Inizio
gastronomo
Forumer storico
Una giornata di presa per il naso come oggi non me la ricordavo da tempo sul maledetto crucco... 
- buona serata
U.S. Treasuries mixed as stocks turn lower
Mon Aug 22, 2005 12:56 PM ET
(Adds two-year auction, quote; updates prices)
NEW YORK, Aug 22 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices were mixed on Monday as investors left stocks and moved into the bond market at the beginning of a slow summer week that will culminate with much-anticipated comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan.
Traders said the bond market was reflecting flows into and out of the stock market, with the bond market retracing and then erasing early losses as the stock market gave back early gains.
"It's kind of the stocks thing, but there's really very little going on," said one Wall Street bond trader at a primary dealer.
Given a light schedule of economic data this week, the bond market will listen closely to Fed officials for clues on inflation at a time when spiking energy prices have heightened the focus on how price increases could affect the economy.
"There is some data, but nothing that is likely to change the foundation of anybody's outlook," said John Canavan, an analyst at Stone & McCarthy Research Associates in Princeton, New Jersey.
The week brings Wednesday's offering of two-year notes, data on durable goods orders and on new and existing home sales. Greenspan speaks on Friday, preceded on Wednesday by Michael Moskow, the president of the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank.
The Treasury Department said it planned to sell $20 billion at its two-year note auction on Wednesday -- the same amount as at its last two auctions of two-year notes.
Benchmark 10-year year notes (US10YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) were little changed, for a yield of 4.21 percent. Analysts put the near-term range of yields on the 10-year note between 4.18 percent and 4.28 percent.
Two-year Treasuries (US2YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) were also flat, yielding 4.02 percent.
Five-year notes (US5YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) were 1/32 higher and yielding 4.08 percent, but the 30-year bond (US30YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) fell 2/32 to yield 4.43 percent, up from 4.42 percent on Friday.
INFLATION ON THE RADAR
The market's concern about inflation has roared back to center stage in recent sessions with crude oil prices above $65 a barrel this month.
Comments from Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker published on Friday also raised worries about inflation. His concern centered on upward revisions to 2004 core inflation, a measure that excludes energy prices.
Both concerns have different implications for the interest rate outlook.
If oil prices continue to climb, the slowing effect on growth is likely to be roughly equivalent to interest rate increases and the Fed is likely to slow its campaign to raise rates.
On the other hand, if prices -- excluding the volatile energy and food components -- are heading higher due to factors like wage increases, the Fed is likely to raise rates to preclude any inflationary overheating of the economy.
Inflation erodes the value of bond investments, which is why inflation concerns are so deleterious to bond prices.
"(Lacker) pointed to continued tightening of the funds rate at a measured pace, but revealed that the Fed might go beyond neutral into restraint to control rising inflation expectations," a research note from BNP Paribas said.
The Fed has raised official short-term rates by a quarter-percentage point 10 consecutive times in the last 13 months, bringing the rate banks charge each other for overnight loans to 3.50 percent, a four-year high.
Economists widely expect the fed funds rate to reach 4.00 by the end of the year, and some believe it will reach 4.25 percent by then.
- buona serataU.S. Treasuries mixed as stocks turn lower
Mon Aug 22, 2005 12:56 PM ET
(Adds two-year auction, quote; updates prices)
NEW YORK, Aug 22 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices were mixed on Monday as investors left stocks and moved into the bond market at the beginning of a slow summer week that will culminate with much-anticipated comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan.
Traders said the bond market was reflecting flows into and out of the stock market, with the bond market retracing and then erasing early losses as the stock market gave back early gains.
"It's kind of the stocks thing, but there's really very little going on," said one Wall Street bond trader at a primary dealer.
Given a light schedule of economic data this week, the bond market will listen closely to Fed officials for clues on inflation at a time when spiking energy prices have heightened the focus on how price increases could affect the economy.
"There is some data, but nothing that is likely to change the foundation of anybody's outlook," said John Canavan, an analyst at Stone & McCarthy Research Associates in Princeton, New Jersey.
The week brings Wednesday's offering of two-year notes, data on durable goods orders and on new and existing home sales. Greenspan speaks on Friday, preceded on Wednesday by Michael Moskow, the president of the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank.
The Treasury Department said it planned to sell $20 billion at its two-year note auction on Wednesday -- the same amount as at its last two auctions of two-year notes.
Benchmark 10-year year notes (US10YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) were little changed, for a yield of 4.21 percent. Analysts put the near-term range of yields on the 10-year note between 4.18 percent and 4.28 percent.
Two-year Treasuries (US2YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) were also flat, yielding 4.02 percent.
Five-year notes (US5YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) were 1/32 higher and yielding 4.08 percent, but the 30-year bond (US30YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) fell 2/32 to yield 4.43 percent, up from 4.42 percent on Friday.
INFLATION ON THE RADAR
The market's concern about inflation has roared back to center stage in recent sessions with crude oil prices above $65 a barrel this month.
Comments from Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker published on Friday also raised worries about inflation. His concern centered on upward revisions to 2004 core inflation, a measure that excludes energy prices.
Both concerns have different implications for the interest rate outlook.
If oil prices continue to climb, the slowing effect on growth is likely to be roughly equivalent to interest rate increases and the Fed is likely to slow its campaign to raise rates.
On the other hand, if prices -- excluding the volatile energy and food components -- are heading higher due to factors like wage increases, the Fed is likely to raise rates to preclude any inflationary overheating of the economy.
Inflation erodes the value of bond investments, which is why inflation concerns are so deleterious to bond prices.
"(Lacker) pointed to continued tightening of the funds rate at a measured pace, but revealed that the Fed might go beyond neutral into restraint to control rising inflation expectations," a research note from BNP Paribas said.
The Fed has raised official short-term rates by a quarter-percentage point 10 consecutive times in the last 13 months, bringing the rate banks charge each other for overnight loans to 3.50 percent, a four-year high.
Economists widely expect the fed funds rate to reach 4.00 by the end of the year, and some believe it will reach 4.25 percent by then.
gastronomo
Forumer storico
Dello ZEW se ne son fregati...stessa storia di ieri..... che ciofeca
Treasuries rise on softer existing home sales data
Tue Aug 23, 2005 12:14 PM ET
(Update prices; adds details on oil worries)
NEW YORK, Aug 23 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices rose to a two-week high on Tuesday sparked by weaker-than-expected existing home sales data in light, late summer volume.
While the existing home sales reading was still the third highest on record, analysts said the data jolted the vacation-thinned market enough to drive yields below a two-week-old technical barrier of 4.20 percent.
Meanwhile, at the CBOT, 10- and 30-year Treasury debt futures hit buy-stops to reach one-month highs, helping trigger a second wave of buying in the cash market.
The National Association of Realtors said existing home sales came in at a 7.16 million annualized rate in July, a decline of 2.6 percent from June's 7.33 million units and below analysts' expectation of 7.25 million units.
"It's a very strong reading overall, (but) it still supports the still-tentative conclusion that the wave of home sales has crested," said Richard DeKaser, chief economist at National City Corp. in Cleveland.
U.S. benchmark 10-year Treasury notes (US10YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) rose 9/32 in price for a yield of 4.18 percent, compared with 4.21 percent late on Monday, breaking out of the 4.20 percent to 4.40 percent range which has held over the past two weeks.
Two-year notes (US2YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) were 2/32 higher for a yield of 3.98 percent, down from 4.02 percent on Monday.
Five-year notes (US5YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) were 5/32 higher and yielding 4.04 percent, compared with 4.08 percent on Monday. The 30-year bond (US30YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) rose 20/32 to yield 4.40 percent, down from 4.43 percent on Monday.
But restraining some of the initial gains related to the existing home sales data were strong results of Germany's ZEW investor survey. The influential report showed its third straight monthly increase in August to 50.0, the highest reading since March 2004.
Traders said the market was also looking ahead to a speech on the economy from Chicago Federal Reserve President Michael Moskow on Wednesday that could stir the relatively quiet market.
Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan speaks on Friday, though many traders reckon the subject, "Reflections on Central Banking," does not lend itself to market-moving commentary.
OIL CONCERNS
Gerald Lucas, the chief Treasury strategist at Banc of America Securities in New York, pegged the yield range for benchmark 10-year notes between 4.17 percent and 4.30 percent, and saw little in the coming sessions that might alter it.
"Until payrolls, I really don't see the market moving out of these ranges," Lucas said, referring to the Labor Department's report on the August employment situation, which is not due until Friday, Sept. 2. "Trading may be volatile, but I don't think it'll move out of these ranges," he added.
Other data early in the session showed U.S. chain store sales dipping in the latest week with one of two reports explicitly singling out higher oil prices as a key factor behind the softness.
By acting like a tax that eats up discretionary spending, higher oil prices raise the prospect of the Federal Reserve halting its campaign to hike short-term interest rates as it seeks to keep a growing economy from generating too much inflation.
Official short-term interest rates stand at 3.50 percent following 10 consecutive quarter-percentage-point increases by the Fed since June 2004.
Financial markets now fully expect the Fed's official short-term interest rate to hit 4 percent by the end of the year, while many expect a year-end level of 4.25 percent.
Asked about the possibility of the Fed altering its credit-tightening campaign due to rising oil prices, Banc of America's Lucas said: "Retail sales data are going to be really important."
The report on August retail sales is due on Sept. 14. (Additional reporting by Ros Krasny in Chicago)
Treasuries rise on softer existing home sales data
Tue Aug 23, 2005 12:14 PM ET
(Update prices; adds details on oil worries)
NEW YORK, Aug 23 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices rose to a two-week high on Tuesday sparked by weaker-than-expected existing home sales data in light, late summer volume.
While the existing home sales reading was still the third highest on record, analysts said the data jolted the vacation-thinned market enough to drive yields below a two-week-old technical barrier of 4.20 percent.
Meanwhile, at the CBOT, 10- and 30-year Treasury debt futures hit buy-stops to reach one-month highs, helping trigger a second wave of buying in the cash market.
The National Association of Realtors said existing home sales came in at a 7.16 million annualized rate in July, a decline of 2.6 percent from June's 7.33 million units and below analysts' expectation of 7.25 million units.
"It's a very strong reading overall, (but) it still supports the still-tentative conclusion that the wave of home sales has crested," said Richard DeKaser, chief economist at National City Corp. in Cleveland.
U.S. benchmark 10-year Treasury notes (US10YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) rose 9/32 in price for a yield of 4.18 percent, compared with 4.21 percent late on Monday, breaking out of the 4.20 percent to 4.40 percent range which has held over the past two weeks.
Two-year notes (US2YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) were 2/32 higher for a yield of 3.98 percent, down from 4.02 percent on Monday.
Five-year notes (US5YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) were 5/32 higher and yielding 4.04 percent, compared with 4.08 percent on Monday. The 30-year bond (US30YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) rose 20/32 to yield 4.40 percent, down from 4.43 percent on Monday.
But restraining some of the initial gains related to the existing home sales data were strong results of Germany's ZEW investor survey. The influential report showed its third straight monthly increase in August to 50.0, the highest reading since March 2004.
Traders said the market was also looking ahead to a speech on the economy from Chicago Federal Reserve President Michael Moskow on Wednesday that could stir the relatively quiet market.
Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan speaks on Friday, though many traders reckon the subject, "Reflections on Central Banking," does not lend itself to market-moving commentary.
OIL CONCERNS
Gerald Lucas, the chief Treasury strategist at Banc of America Securities in New York, pegged the yield range for benchmark 10-year notes between 4.17 percent and 4.30 percent, and saw little in the coming sessions that might alter it.
"Until payrolls, I really don't see the market moving out of these ranges," Lucas said, referring to the Labor Department's report on the August employment situation, which is not due until Friday, Sept. 2. "Trading may be volatile, but I don't think it'll move out of these ranges," he added.
Other data early in the session showed U.S. chain store sales dipping in the latest week with one of two reports explicitly singling out higher oil prices as a key factor behind the softness.
By acting like a tax that eats up discretionary spending, higher oil prices raise the prospect of the Federal Reserve halting its campaign to hike short-term interest rates as it seeks to keep a growing economy from generating too much inflation.
Official short-term interest rates stand at 3.50 percent following 10 consecutive quarter-percentage-point increases by the Fed since June 2004.
Financial markets now fully expect the Fed's official short-term interest rate to hit 4 percent by the end of the year, while many expect a year-end level of 4.25 percent.
Asked about the possibility of the Fed altering its credit-tightening campaign due to rising oil prices, Banc of America's Lucas said: "Retail sales data are going to be really important."
The report on August retail sales is due on Sept. 14. (Additional reporting by Ros Krasny in Chicago)
gastronomo
Forumer storico
f4f ha scritto:un saluto a tutta la bbbbanda
forsemaforse sto finendo le vacanse
a domani
Buongiorno a tutti, ben tornato caro Avvocato
- la mia incapacità di comprendere il bund tocca ogni giorno vette inesplorate, il film dell'orrore quindi si perpetua in maniera sempre più dolorosa ed insensata. I dati non li guardano (possiamo parlare di payrolls, di inflazione, di ZEW...): se la borsa sale salgono anche i bond perchè, a sto punto mi pare evidente, i leading di borsa sono i petroliferi, quindi se sale il petrolio... del petrolio si considera solo l'impatto recessivo e non quello inflattivo - se scende la borsa, i bond salgono per la correlazione negativa tra categorie di rischio, che viene tirata fuori dal cilindro con perfida memoria 
- lo dirò alla nausea, mia e vostra: non ho mai visto nulla di simile... spero di non dovermi stoppare per mancanza di margini, ma ogni giorno le mie certezze vacillano e scricchiolano pericolosamente.....pensare che sui payrolls di agosto volevo andare ancora più corto...ha fatto un rally che solo nel regno dei tarocchi più lisergici qualche mente malata avrebbe potuto concepire...o forse il gioco è proprio questo? Ahimè ragionare sui fondamentali è passato di moda, come il buonsenso...a più tardi 
f4f
翠鸟科
goood morning bbbanda
ci sono e non ci sono purtroppo
gastro quannè ke vieni nelle nebbie che ci vediamo ?
ps
lisergico? ma dove le trovi queste sapide espressioni?
cmq resta la questione.... 8)
stò quazz è bund non si è smollato di un minimo
la chiave per me , come dissi già a luglio, è la percezione della inflazione
quando le cose si muoveranno .... :smile:
ci sono e non ci sono purtroppo
gastro quannè ke vieni nelle nebbie che ci vediamo ?
ps
lisergico? ma dove le trovi queste sapide espressioni?
cmq resta la questione.... 8)
stò quazz è bund non si è smollato di un minimo
la chiave per me , come dissi già a luglio, è la percezione della inflazione
quando le cose si muoveranno .... :smile:
gastronomo
Forumer storico
stò quazz è bund non si è smollato di un minimo
la chiave per me , come dissi già a luglio, è la percezione della inflazione
quando le cose si muoveranno .... :smile:[/quote]
Uella caro Avv., se riesco ci vediamo presto, la prossima settimana dovrei essere all'ombra della madonnina - espressioni sapide? con le pene che sto soffrendo (e le penne che rischio di bruciarmi) mi diletto in svolazzamenti verbali che sanno di pindarico catastrofismo, sempre piangina insomma...vedi che quando torna il testina di cacioricotta mi dedicherà le sue imperiture strofe di funesto ottimismo ...già mi tocco 
..... la percezione dell'inflazione? quando alleggerisco la tasca percepisco un dolore non indifferente, e non perchè ho pelosi parenti liguri in kilt, ma perchè l'inflazione, che sia dichiarata, ufficiale, percepita, pagata cash, è una solenne presa per il naso... mettiamo l'inflazione reale al rendimento dei bond e i governi vanno tutti a carte 48.
Vado a prepararmi un cumulo di pasta, che sono nell'età della crescita
...
la chiave per me , come dissi già a luglio, è la percezione della inflazione
quando le cose si muoveranno .... :smile:[/quote]
Uella caro Avv., se riesco ci vediamo presto, la prossima settimana dovrei essere all'ombra della madonnina - espressioni sapide? con le pene che sto soffrendo (e le penne che rischio di bruciarmi) mi diletto in svolazzamenti verbali che sanno di pindarico catastrofismo, sempre piangina insomma...vedi che quando torna il testina di cacioricotta mi dedicherà le sue imperiture strofe di funesto ottimismo
...già mi tocco ..... la percezione dell'inflazione? quando alleggerisco la tasca percepisco un dolore non indifferente, e non perchè ho pelosi parenti liguri in kilt, ma perchè l'inflazione, che sia dichiarata, ufficiale, percepita, pagata cash, è una solenne presa per il naso... mettiamo l'inflazione reale al rendimento dei bond e i governi vanno tutti a carte 48.Vado a prepararmi un cumulo di pasta, che sono nell'età della crescita
...gastronomo
Forumer storico
M'è andata la carbonara di traverso con sti dati sui durable goods...così si spiega sia la forza dei bonds degli ultimi 2 giorni (guardare l'intraday per credere) che la "dimenticanza" sui prezzi all'importazione in germania che sono usciti stamattina (stratosferici, iperinflattivi, ma...non visti dal mercato ) - no comment
) - no comment
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