bund, t-bond t-note ecc SOLO LONG FOR EVER

[gastronomo]

...

Treasuries fall after stronger-than-forecast ISM
Mon Aug 1, 2005 10:55 AM ET
(Adds ISM data, analyst comments, updates prices)
NEW YORK, Aug 1 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices extended early losses on Monday after an influential survey on U.S. factories showed activity in July rose above analysts' expectations.

The Institute for Supply Management's survey came in at 56.6, above economists' expectations of a 54.5 reading and June's 53.8, offering more fuel to market views that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates.

"This may add to the arguments to keep raising rates because the economy is strong, which raises the risk of higher inflation," said Patrick Fearon, senior economist at A.G. Edwards and Sons in St. Louis.

Traders pushed benchmark 10-year notes (US10YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) 13/32 lower to yield 4.34 percent, compared with 4.28 percent on Friday.

The two-year note (US2YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) was off 1/32 and yielding 4.04 percent, near a four-year high, while the five-year note (US5YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) fell 5/32 for a yield of 4.17 percent, compared with 4.13 percent on Friday.

The 30-year bond (US30YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) fell 28/32 to yield 4.53 percent, compared with 4.47 percent on Friday.

Selling immediately following the report was muted. But it accelerated as the market, already expecting a strong number, began to digest some of the report's other components.

Traders said Treasury yields were catching up to the reality of higher rates, especially on the two-year note, the most sensitive to changes in the interest rate outlook.

"Data from the U.S. has been very strong and some reality is coming into the U.S. Treasury market," said Michael Straughan, economist at American Express Bank.

"Our forecast is for U.S. fed funds to rise to 4 percent by the end of the year, with 10-year Treasury yields between 4.75 and 5.0 percent."

The Fed has raised the fed funds rate nine times in the last year, to 3.25 percent. Each increase has been by a quarter-percentage-point, and the market widely expects any future rate hikes also to be a quarter-point.

 

[Fleursdumal]

mmm proiezione yield 10y tra 4,75 e 5% quindi 10yt-note sotto 108

 

[ditropan]

mmm proiezione yield 10y tra 4,75 e 5% quindi 10yt-note sotto 108

GIORNO MALEFICO !


... ed il t-bronx allora dove lo raccolgo ?

 

[ditropan]

tutti spariti ?

 

[Fleursdumal]

tutti spariti ?

ce sò ce siamo golosone

il bello è che a vedere i cot i funds sono ancora net long, se si girano

 

[gastronomo]

Quando il crucco scende
son sempre presente
e molto gaudente
bastan altre 4 figure
e son in pari


...

 

[f4f]

goooooooood morning bbanda

manco un giorno e subito mi danno per spacciato
Fleu .... teribbile si scrive, appunto, con 1 R e almeno 2 B
ekkequazzo

ditro ha dato una notevolissima aggiunta alla parte 'genio'
fleu una gustosa ricetta
gastro ......

me cunvegn stà via, insomma

 

[gastronomo]

me cunvegn stà via, insomma [/quote]

Non dire così, caro Avv., lo sai che ti vogliamo tutti bene, pure Fleur (non ci giurerei ), certo che se il crucco rimbalza ti vengo a cercare ...

 

[f4f]

ho colto la sottile allusione e ho scaramanticamente emendato il precedente post

vò a cuntrulà il mercato

Fleu sfaticone
me porto il liber in vacansa
ma mia tutto, ... solo ciò che mi par consono
il lavoro di Ditro è outstanding
temo di essere rimasto alcune lunghezze inditro

 

[gastronomo]

mumble mumble...queste sono cose importanti, se solo si pensa a quanti asset gestisce questa gente

UPDATE 3-Fukui upbeat on economy, guarded on policy shift
Tue Aug 2, 2005 05:30 AM ET
(Recasts, adds details)
By Tamawa Kadoya

TOKYO, Aug 2 (Reuters) - Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui reiterated a bullish view on the nation's economy on Tuesday, saying a soft patch could soon be over and consumer prices will likely turn positive by the year-end.

Markets bought into that view, helping to push bond yields to four-month highs and fuelling expectations the BOJ may start to scale back its ultra-loose monetary policy earlier than expected.
Fukui said there is a strong chance consumer prices in Japan would rise into positive territory around the end of this year or early next year.

"The trend (for consumer prices) will remain slightly negative for the time being," Fukui told a parliamentary committee reviewing a twice-yearly report by the central bank.

"But somewhere from the end of this year to the start of next year ... various one-off factors will fade, and there is a high likelihood that consumer prices will turn positive."

Earlier, Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki said the end of Japan's seven-year bout with deflation was not yet in sight, although some economic indicators had improved.

"A decline in land prices may bottom out in the near future. I want the economy to get out of deflation but I cannot see the end of deflation yet," Tanigaki told reporters.

Land prices nationally fell last year for the 13th straight year but at a slower pace, while land prices in Tokyo rose for the first time in 13 years, government data showed on Monday.

Fukui said he saw "no major conflict" at present between fiscal and monetary policy, and the central bank and the government shared a common goal in halting the persistent decline in prices.

Fukui reiterated that the BOJ was committed to keeping its hyper-easy monetary policy framework until year-on-year changes in the core consumer price index show positive, stable growth.

He said it may take time to decide a policy shift even after the economy fully recovers.

"We believe the economy will emerge from its soft patch relatively soon ... but we will need to make a more rigorous judgment" to decide any shift in policy, he said.

SPECULATION RISING

Market players said the BOJ's view on consumer prices, taken with recent upbeat economic data, suggests the central bank could end its super-easy policy sooner rather than later.

The yield on benchmark 10-year Japanese government bonds on Tuesday rose 3.5 basis points at one stage to 1.380 percent, its highest since early April.

Last week, the BOJ's Policy Board voted 7-2 in favour of making no change in the central bank's target for excess funds held by financial institutions at the BOJ.

The central bank said, however, that it would continue to allow temporary breaches in the 30-35 trillion yen ($267-312 billion) target when fund demand was weak.

Fukui said any breaches in the target over the next few weeks would likely be temporary. The target is seen likely to be breached due to an outflow of bank funds into the public sector.

He said there were various risk factors ahead for the economy, including high oil prices, that could push up inflation expectations in the United States. That could trigger a rise in U.S. long-term interest rates which could adversely affect financial markets, he said.

He also called on the government to maintain fiscal prudence, as markets could become volatile as the economy emerges from deflation.

"Market expectations may fluctuate depending on whether fiscal prudence is maintained ... we could see markets becoming highly volatile," he said, adding that that could hamper the effects of monetary policy.

Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi has focused on reining in new bond issues and cutting down government spending as Japan tries to manage its huge public debt accumulated through years of massive spending to revive the economy. ($1=112.24 Yen) (Additional reporting by Chisa Fujioka and Yoko Nishikawa)


© Reuters 2005. All Rights Reserved.