Bund, Tbond e la matrixiana allo yen vm18
- Creatore Discussione gipa69
- Data di Inizio
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
il delirio, eurostoxx -4% , non ci son più supporti
gold a -2%
gold a -2%
quicksilver
Forumer storico
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Fleursdumal ha scritto:bene procede panicamente beneil canguro mi ha finalmente perso una figura
mi son preso persino un long sul jap con stop però a vista, chissà perchè mi aspetto una esplosione see vabbè sogniamo
l'unica che mi lascia un pò di dubbi ( ci fosse una volta in cui non ce ne fosse mezzo all'americana) è l'oro a -1,5%
I supporti indicati da masgui sono li a supportare lo spoore e la doppia perforazione fallita potrebbe indicare un certo periodo di stabilizzazione.
Il catalizzatore delle liquidazioni "reale" è stato sicuramente la paura che il mercato di liquidità speculativa si stia velocemente contraendo anche se ad esso si sono aggiunti alcuni earnings medi (tranne Ford) e dati macro non positivi.
Ora alcuni earnings positivi ma non di big.
La mancata domanda per operazioni di LBO riguardanti Chrysler ha sicuramente penalizzato ulteriormente il mercato.
Sull'oro il suo calo è legato alla carriatura (chè esiste anche sul metallo giallo) e alla possibilità che parte delle liquidazioni favoriscano un rimpatrio di capitali USAe quindi alla forza del dollaro.
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
A long time ago, Willie Nelson sang "turn out the lights...the party's over." While the failure of the DOTW to step in immediately makes it tempting to conclude that the party really is over for equities and risk assets, it does of course remain premature to conclude that with any degree of conviction.
Neverthless, it's also important to respect the fact that markets are starting to seize up and that equities are rapidly approaching some very interesting levels. Interesting levels to buy? Perhaps. But, Rudyard Kipling's admonition notwithstanding, in times of financial distress keeping your head (or at least using value as a short term investment criterion) isn't always the right thing to do. The FTSE, for example, is already perched right on its uptrend line of the entire five year bull market.
A break could produce a fair amount of pain (and further asset allocation shifts from the UK pension fund industry.) It makes sense to position for the tail risk event, which would then provide a platform for selective purchases on weakness.
Neverthless, it's also important to respect the fact that markets are starting to seize up and that equities are rapidly approaching some very interesting levels. Interesting levels to buy? Perhaps. But, Rudyard Kipling's admonition notwithstanding, in times of financial distress keeping your head (or at least using value as a short term investment criterion) isn't always the right thing to do. The FTSE, for example, is already perched right on its uptrend line of the entire five year bull market.
A break could produce a fair amount of pain (and further asset allocation shifts from the UK pension fund industry.) It makes sense to position for the tail risk event, which would then provide a platform for selective purchases on weakness.
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
On the face of it yesterday’s drop of 312 points (2.3%) in the Dow Jones Industrial Index is scary stuff. The chart below tells the sorry tale.
But just how serious is this decline from a historical perspective?
Since the start of the Dow in 1896 we have seen a drop of more than 312 points on 15 occasions. This is really not a very meaningful statistic as one should rather look at the percentage decline to take cognizance of differing index values over the decades. On this basis last night’s decline rates as only the 698th largest in history. Put in another way, we have seen drops of this magnitude or worse on 2.5% of all trading days over the past 111 years.
And how does the sell-off stack up since the advent of the current bull phase on 9 October 2002? In short, pretty badly. It rates as the second-largest points decline and fifth-largest percentage decline since almost five years ago.
The following table summarizes the largest movements in the Dow Jones Industrial Index since the bear market low in 2002.
I have long maintained that a number of headwinds were arguing against anything more than mediocre returns for US equities over the medium term. These include: the lack of compelling value, the rising oil price, the problematic US housing situation and concomitant implications for the consumer and mean-reverting earnings growth.
And, importantly, it would appear that the yen carry trade, for long the financier of mega-billion deals, has started faltering. The following chart shows the strong inverse relationship between the yen index and the Dow Jones World Stock Index (as a proxy for global equities).
A meltdown, in the final analysis, comes down to a reassessment of risk. And no chart illustrates this more clearly than the next one showing the Dow Jones Industrial Index behaving almost as a mirror image of the (rising) Volatility Index (VIX).
It would appear that we may very well be in for a rough patch with the bear about to take centre stage for a while.
But just how serious is this decline from a historical perspective?
Since the start of the Dow in 1896 we have seen a drop of more than 312 points on 15 occasions. This is really not a very meaningful statistic as one should rather look at the percentage decline to take cognizance of differing index values over the decades. On this basis last night’s decline rates as only the 698th largest in history. Put in another way, we have seen drops of this magnitude or worse on 2.5% of all trading days over the past 111 years.
And how does the sell-off stack up since the advent of the current bull phase on 9 October 2002? In short, pretty badly. It rates as the second-largest points decline and fifth-largest percentage decline since almost five years ago.
The following table summarizes the largest movements in the Dow Jones Industrial Index since the bear market low in 2002.
I have long maintained that a number of headwinds were arguing against anything more than mediocre returns for US equities over the medium term. These include: the lack of compelling value, the rising oil price, the problematic US housing situation and concomitant implications for the consumer and mean-reverting earnings growth.
And, importantly, it would appear that the yen carry trade, for long the financier of mega-billion deals, has started faltering. The following chart shows the strong inverse relationship between the yen index and the Dow Jones World Stock Index (as a proxy for global equities).
A meltdown, in the final analysis, comes down to a reassessment of risk. And no chart illustrates this more clearly than the next one showing the Dow Jones Industrial Index behaving almost as a mirror image of the (rising) Volatility Index (VIX).
It would appear that we may very well be in for a rough patch with the bear about to take centre stage for a while.
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
In questicommenti ci sono più o meno tutte le opinioni/considerazioni sui mercati.
Barclays Capital - Global FX Daily
On the broader outlook for risk reduction and implications for the FX market:
Higher levels of risk premia have driven this risk reduction and could be associated with the possibility that risk was underpriced in the first place and is now correcting towards a more sustainable level. This is a more structural change that would imply a lower steady-state level of risky assets. But for the time being, the repricing of risk is more related to the short term uncertainty surrounding the spillover from the credit market turmoil. In this case, the resolution of this uncertainty will determine the eventual level of risky assets. In our view, this uncertainty is likely to persist over the next few months and continue to weigh on risky assets for the time being. Our central scenario remains that in the long term, the effect of credit problems on broader financial markets and the real economy will be contained. Risky assets should eventually recover but the next few months are not the best time to try and pick a bottom.
What are the trading opportunities within FX? High risk premia means investors are likely to differentiate more between risky and less-risky currencies. Investors are likely to demand a higher risk premium for currencies that are overvalued relative to fundamentals. In fact, in many cases, this overvaluation is related to the speculative carry trade. As such, we expect AUD/NZD and EUR/GBP to move higher from their recent lows against this backdrop. This would be an attractive, less volatile way to play the unwind of the carry in the short term. Liquidty matters as well, and currencies with less liquid markets such as SEK, NOK and some emerging market currencies will be vulnerable to a sell-off.
Dresdner Kleinwort - FX Compass
Noting the correlation between currencies and equities:
High and low yielding currencies (e.g. NZD/JPY) are likely to continue correlating well with movements in equity markets today. In particular, the correlation between EUR/JPY and DAX is worth monitoring.
On the potential for value-based money to prop the equity markets and a return to the carry trade:
In a special published on Wednesday (FX Strategy - From Subprime to Ridiculous? A Return visit) we mentioned the risk that the impact from the subprime crisis could change from being seen as USD-centric only to also threatening carry trades. Nevertheless we expected the impact on carry trades to be limited as credit risks are well spread in the financial markets contrary to the LTCM crisis. Eventually, therefore we may get some form of reversal back to a pro-carry environment, although this depends essentially on equity markets as they determine much of the willingness to take financial risks. One should note that much of the value-based money in equity markets does not react instantly to attractive valuations. Asset managers may need up to a few days between making their decision and actually investing into equities across multiple markets.
ABN - Global FX Daily
ABN analyst Greg Anderson looks at the sub-prime and housing market slowdown and believes the latter is the greater concern:
Despite the massive sell-off in risk assets this week, I remain of the opinion that the ‘sub-prime crisis’ is mostly a tempest in a teapot. Assuming a 50% loss rate on subprime CDOs and a 10% loss rate on CDOs that are non-guaranteed but rated single-A or higher, gives a total credit loss of $155bn. That is small change at just 0.53% of the $29tn US credit market. A hedge fund or two may fail, but just like the failure of Amaranth last year, such failures will soon be forgotten, while holders of diversified debt portfolios will easily absorb a 0.5% hit.
The bigger issue that markets should worry about is the broader problem of a housing glut. New home building dramatically outstripped new family formation from 2003 through 2005 as speculative ‘flippers’ snapped up both new and existing homes. As is inevitable in any market, participants finally got wise to the fundamental supply/demand imbalance in 2006. As is shown in Chart 1, new and existing home sales have been falling since. The latest data for June, the new home sales report issued yesterday, showed hew home sales volumes falling to the 2nd lowest level in 7 years. The median new home price fell 2.2%. Data released on existing homes the day prior was similar, with declining volumes and flat prices. A weak housing market is a much bigger issue for the US economy than a potential $155bn in credit losses.
Declining home prices, along with a flurry of variable rate mortgage resets and high energy prices could put a serious dent in to consumer spending. But is the drag on the US economy created by a weak housing sector something that financial markets didn’t know two weeks ago, when the Dow reached 14K for the first time ever and EUR-JPY reached 169?
For whatever reason, EUR-JPY seems to have had the tightest correlation with the US equity market of any G10 FX pair thus far in 2007. Local market pairs like USD-MXN and USD-BRL have had even tighter correlations with equities. I personally believe that a summer weekend will likely change the mood of the equity market and therefore the related FX pairs. Not that the housing situation isn’t discouraging—it’s just that the focus will shift to data that is likely to be pretty favourable, like Q2 GDP, June PCE deflator and July payrolls. If you’re with me on the premise, use today’s entry levels to buy EUR-JPY and sell USD-BRL, or if you want to get fancy, buy MXN-JPY.
ING - Daily FX Strategy
Looking for USD negative macro data, but expecting the fall-out of the carry trade unwind to be USD supportive in the near term:
The deterioration in credit conditions over the last month finally materialised in US equity markets yesterday with a 2.3% fall in the Dow. With appetite for junk debt seriously impaired, calling into question the viability of many high profile LBOs, equity markets should remain vulnerable. The highlight today will be Q2 GDP data. If we are right with our 2.5% call on the headline, driven by a soft 1.3% rise in real consumer spending, the carry trade unwind should continue. Ultimately, the macro data should be USD negative, with US two year yield now down at 4.55%, but for today the carry trade unwind should dominate, potentially seeing the USD slightly stronger versus Europe but a lot weaker against the JPY.
Barclays Capital - Global FX Daily
On the broader outlook for risk reduction and implications for the FX market:
Higher levels of risk premia have driven this risk reduction and could be associated with the possibility that risk was underpriced in the first place and is now correcting towards a more sustainable level. This is a more structural change that would imply a lower steady-state level of risky assets. But for the time being, the repricing of risk is more related to the short term uncertainty surrounding the spillover from the credit market turmoil. In this case, the resolution of this uncertainty will determine the eventual level of risky assets. In our view, this uncertainty is likely to persist over the next few months and continue to weigh on risky assets for the time being. Our central scenario remains that in the long term, the effect of credit problems on broader financial markets and the real economy will be contained. Risky assets should eventually recover but the next few months are not the best time to try and pick a bottom.
What are the trading opportunities within FX? High risk premia means investors are likely to differentiate more between risky and less-risky currencies. Investors are likely to demand a higher risk premium for currencies that are overvalued relative to fundamentals. In fact, in many cases, this overvaluation is related to the speculative carry trade. As such, we expect AUD/NZD and EUR/GBP to move higher from their recent lows against this backdrop. This would be an attractive, less volatile way to play the unwind of the carry in the short term. Liquidty matters as well, and currencies with less liquid markets such as SEK, NOK and some emerging market currencies will be vulnerable to a sell-off.
Dresdner Kleinwort - FX Compass
Noting the correlation between currencies and equities:
High and low yielding currencies (e.g. NZD/JPY) are likely to continue correlating well with movements in equity markets today. In particular, the correlation between EUR/JPY and DAX is worth monitoring.
On the potential for value-based money to prop the equity markets and a return to the carry trade:
In a special published on Wednesday (FX Strategy - From Subprime to Ridiculous? A Return visit) we mentioned the risk that the impact from the subprime crisis could change from being seen as USD-centric only to also threatening carry trades. Nevertheless we expected the impact on carry trades to be limited as credit risks are well spread in the financial markets contrary to the LTCM crisis. Eventually, therefore we may get some form of reversal back to a pro-carry environment, although this depends essentially on equity markets as they determine much of the willingness to take financial risks. One should note that much of the value-based money in equity markets does not react instantly to attractive valuations. Asset managers may need up to a few days between making their decision and actually investing into equities across multiple markets.
ABN - Global FX Daily
ABN analyst Greg Anderson looks at the sub-prime and housing market slowdown and believes the latter is the greater concern:
Despite the massive sell-off in risk assets this week, I remain of the opinion that the ‘sub-prime crisis’ is mostly a tempest in a teapot. Assuming a 50% loss rate on subprime CDOs and a 10% loss rate on CDOs that are non-guaranteed but rated single-A or higher, gives a total credit loss of $155bn. That is small change at just 0.53% of the $29tn US credit market. A hedge fund or two may fail, but just like the failure of Amaranth last year, such failures will soon be forgotten, while holders of diversified debt portfolios will easily absorb a 0.5% hit.
The bigger issue that markets should worry about is the broader problem of a housing glut. New home building dramatically outstripped new family formation from 2003 through 2005 as speculative ‘flippers’ snapped up both new and existing homes. As is inevitable in any market, participants finally got wise to the fundamental supply/demand imbalance in 2006. As is shown in Chart 1, new and existing home sales have been falling since. The latest data for June, the new home sales report issued yesterday, showed hew home sales volumes falling to the 2nd lowest level in 7 years. The median new home price fell 2.2%. Data released on existing homes the day prior was similar, with declining volumes and flat prices. A weak housing market is a much bigger issue for the US economy than a potential $155bn in credit losses.
Declining home prices, along with a flurry of variable rate mortgage resets and high energy prices could put a serious dent in to consumer spending. But is the drag on the US economy created by a weak housing sector something that financial markets didn’t know two weeks ago, when the Dow reached 14K for the first time ever and EUR-JPY reached 169?
For whatever reason, EUR-JPY seems to have had the tightest correlation with the US equity market of any G10 FX pair thus far in 2007. Local market pairs like USD-MXN and USD-BRL have had even tighter correlations with equities. I personally believe that a summer weekend will likely change the mood of the equity market and therefore the related FX pairs. Not that the housing situation isn’t discouraging—it’s just that the focus will shift to data that is likely to be pretty favourable, like Q2 GDP, June PCE deflator and July payrolls. If you’re with me on the premise, use today’s entry levels to buy EUR-JPY and sell USD-BRL, or if you want to get fancy, buy MXN-JPY.
ING - Daily FX Strategy
Looking for USD negative macro data, but expecting the fall-out of the carry trade unwind to be USD supportive in the near term:
The deterioration in credit conditions over the last month finally materialised in US equity markets yesterday with a 2.3% fall in the Dow. With appetite for junk debt seriously impaired, calling into question the viability of many high profile LBOs, equity markets should remain vulnerable. The highlight today will be Q2 GDP data. If we are right with our 2.5% call on the headline, driven by a soft 1.3% rise in real consumer spending, the carry trade unwind should continue. Ultimately, the macro data should be USD negative, with US two year yield now down at 4.55%, but for today the carry trade unwind should dominate, potentially seeing the USD slightly stronger versus Europe but a lot weaker against the JPY.
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Economy rebounds smartly By JEANNINE AVERSA, AP Economics Writer
4 minutes ago
WASHINGTON - The economy snapped out of a lethargic spell and grew at a 3.4 percent pace in the second quarter, the strongest showing in more than a year. A revival in business spending was a main force behind the energized performance.
The new reading on gross domestic product, released by the Commerce Department on Friday, marked a big improvement from the first three months of this year, when economic growth skidded to a near halt at just a 0.6 percent pace, the slowest in more than four years.
Stronger spending by businesses and government powered the rebound in the April-to-June quarter. Individuals, however, tightened their belts as they coped with high gasoline prices and the ill effects of the housing slump. The sour housing market continued to weigh on national economic activity in the spring but not nearly as much as it had in previous quarters.
Inflation — outside a burst in energy and food prices — moderated.
The second quarter's performance was better than the 3.2 percent growth rate economists were expecting. It was the strongest showing since the first quarter of 2006, when the economy expanded at a brisk 4.8 percent annual rate.
Gross domestic product measures the value of all goods and services produced in the United States. It is considered the best barometer of the country's economic fitness.
Even as the economy picked up speed in the spring, inflation managed to settle down.
An inflation gauge closely watched by the Federal Reserve showed "core" prices — excluding food and energy — rose at a rate of just 1.4 percent in the second quarter. That was down sharply from a 2.4 percent pace in the first quarter and was the smallest increase in four years.
That should help ease inflation concerns. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has said the biggest threat to the economy is if inflation doesn't recede as policymakers anticipate. Out-of-control prices are bad for the economy and the pocketbook. They eat into paychecks, erode purchasing power and reduce the value of investments.
The Fed has kept a key interest rate at 5.25 percent for more than a year. Economists predict that rate will stay where it is through the rest of 2007.
The economic rebound news comes one day after a market meltdown on Wall Street. Stocks plunged more than 300 points on Thursday, its second worst day of the year. The sell-off came amid investors' worries that troubles in the housing and home-mortgage markets could spread.
The ailing housing market is still crimping economic activity but not as much as it had.
Investment in home building was cut by 9.3 percent, on an annualized basis, in the second quarter. That wasn't nearly as deep as the 16.3 percent annualized drop in the first quarter. It was the smallest cut in just over a year.
4 minutes ago
WASHINGTON - The economy snapped out of a lethargic spell and grew at a 3.4 percent pace in the second quarter, the strongest showing in more than a year. A revival in business spending was a main force behind the energized performance.
The new reading on gross domestic product, released by the Commerce Department on Friday, marked a big improvement from the first three months of this year, when economic growth skidded to a near halt at just a 0.6 percent pace, the slowest in more than four years.
Stronger spending by businesses and government powered the rebound in the April-to-June quarter. Individuals, however, tightened their belts as they coped with high gasoline prices and the ill effects of the housing slump. The sour housing market continued to weigh on national economic activity in the spring but not nearly as much as it had in previous quarters.
Inflation — outside a burst in energy and food prices — moderated.
The second quarter's performance was better than the 3.2 percent growth rate economists were expecting. It was the strongest showing since the first quarter of 2006, when the economy expanded at a brisk 4.8 percent annual rate.
Gross domestic product measures the value of all goods and services produced in the United States. It is considered the best barometer of the country's economic fitness.
Even as the economy picked up speed in the spring, inflation managed to settle down.
An inflation gauge closely watched by the Federal Reserve showed "core" prices — excluding food and energy — rose at a rate of just 1.4 percent in the second quarter. That was down sharply from a 2.4 percent pace in the first quarter and was the smallest increase in four years.
That should help ease inflation concerns. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has said the biggest threat to the economy is if inflation doesn't recede as policymakers anticipate. Out-of-control prices are bad for the economy and the pocketbook. They eat into paychecks, erode purchasing power and reduce the value of investments.
The Fed has kept a key interest rate at 5.25 percent for more than a year. Economists predict that rate will stay where it is through the rest of 2007.
The economic rebound news comes one day after a market meltdown on Wall Street. Stocks plunged more than 300 points on Thursday, its second worst day of the year. The sell-off came amid investors' worries that troubles in the housing and home-mortgage markets could spread.
The ailing housing market is still crimping economic activity but not as much as it had.
Investment in home building was cut by 9.3 percent, on an annualized basis, in the second quarter. That wasn't nearly as deep as the 16.3 percent annualized drop in the first quarter. It was the smallest cut in just over a year.
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