BUND-TBOND-VM99-se trikeko è magicooo cicciolina è verginee (2 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione dan24
- Data di Inizio
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
dan24 ha scritto:
C'è una cosa sorprendente in questi ultimi mesi di analisi, e cioè attribuire a fenomeni strutturali caratteristiche cicliche ed a fenomeni ciclici caratteristiche strutturali, mi spiego.
Tutti pensiamo che gli Usa siano una potenza declinante, l'europa una potenza stabile emergente e la Cina la potenza emergente ma perdiamo di vista che queste considerazioni seppure in parte valide e abbastanza comprensibili (anche se sull'Europa ho i miei dubbi....) siano considerazioni di lungo periodo mentre invece le aspettative sembrano portarci a fenomeni che si concluderanno al massimo dopodomani.
La lettura di un interessante report macro sul potenziale sviluppo delle pressioni inflazionistiche mi fa anzi pensare che prossimamente (massimo 2 mesi a partire da ora) si avrà un movimento di medio in controtrend rispetto a queste reali considerazioni macro ma realmente ormai consumate dall'avidità degli speculatori.
Il sentiment degli investitori individuali sulle commodities è troppo positivo così come il sentiment negativo sul dollaro è troppo elevato.
le considerazioni negative sugli USA sono a livelli insostenibili per permettere ad un trend di avere ancora eccessiva forza e durata.
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
dan24 ha scritto:
hanno rivisto al rialzo quelli di dicembre
UPDATE: EU Business Lobby Says Euro Above $1.50 Is "Alarming"
Thu, Mar 6 2008, 11:19 GMT
http://www.djnewswires.com/eu
UPDATE: EU Business Lobby Says Euro Above $1.50 Is "Alarming"
(adds further details)
BRUSSELS -(Dow Jones)- The euro's new highs against the U.S. dollar signal more pain for European businesses, Europe's biggest business lobby said Thursday.
"We said when the euro was above $1.40 that we feel the pain. When the euro is above $1.50, it is alarming," Ernest-Antoine Seilliere, president of BusinessEurope, told a news briefing.
He added, however, that the weak dollar has some advantages, noting that raw materials such as oil and gas are priced in dollars and are relatively less expensive for European buyers.
With an eye on the European Central Bank's imminent interest rate decision, Seilliere said high interest rates are also a concern for business.
"If interest rates are lower, it would be positive, that's obvious," he said.
He noted, however, that businesses are still worried about inflation, which was running at 3.2% in February for the second successive month, which was why the ECB has held interest rates at 4% since last June.
The lobby group president called for more political pressure on the euro exchange rate."There is an imbalance between the power of the central bank and the political institutions of Europe," he complained.
European political leaders "must open a discussion between the major actors in the global economy... otherwise you will see the euro at $1.80," he warned.
Seilliere noted that recent meetings between the group of seven leading industrialised nation haven't dealt sufficiently with the euro's exchange rate against the dollar.
The comments echoed those by the head of International Monetary Fund on Monday, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, who said that the problem of an overvalued euro was compounded by the lack of a political counterweight at the ECB.
-By Adam Cohen and Carolyn Henson, Dow Jones Newswires; +32 2 741 1484; [email protected]
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 06, 2008 06:19 ET (11:19 GMT)
