Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
azz dopo che era tornato su da 116,11 mi ero allontanato seccato dimenticandomi l'ordine in macchina , meno male che son tornato qualche minuto prima della chiusura in tempo in tempo per chiudere a 116,12 pfui 
LONDON (Dow Jones)06/27--Euro-zone government bonds were down in late trade Friday
but off session lows as investors covered short positions into the weekend.
"It's been a rollercoaster ride this week and sellers are now squaring up,"
said a broker with a U.K. bank in London.
"But the near-term outlook is negative so any rallies will be fragile and
based on covering," he added.
At 1500 GMT, the September bund future on Eurex was down 0.14 at 116.51, but
off the day's low of 116.23. Analysts at Monument Securities peg support at
116.26 and resistance in the key 117.09 area.
The benchmark 10-year cash bund was trading at 105.27, down 0.25 to yield
3.82%.
"The markets are now taking a breather and reassessing the situation. Many
may feel yields don't need to go up any further," said John Davies,
fixed-income strategist at WestLB in London.
Bund futures were lagging Treasurys on "follow-through selling as they are
still playing catch-up" (with the U.S. sell-off), he added. But the 10-year
German/U.S. spread continues to move in Europe's favor, he noted, as it has
narrowed from 42 basis points just before the Fed's rate verdict to 28 basis
points now.
"Treasurys will only start outperforming if we get a run of poor U.S. data,"
Davies said.
Looking ahead to next week, events will be dominated by Friday's U.S.
employment report and the ISM survey on Tuesday.
Before that Monday, the markets will have German manufacturing orders,
euro-zone money supply, European Union confidence survey and Chicago purchasing
managers' index figures to digest.
On the supply front, analysts at Merrill Lynch note that euro-zone markets
will get an enormous liquidity injection in July. Redemptions and coupon
payments total EUR90 billion while Merrill estimates supply at just EUR50
billion, leaving a net injection of EUR40 billion.
Historically this is large, as the net monthly injection since January 2000
has amounted to a monthly drain of EUR4 billion.
One dealer said it's important to distinguish the source of the liquidity -
redemptions tend to get recycled back into the short end, while coupon payments
can be invested anywhere along the yield curve.
2.50% Schatz of '05: 100.59 dn 0.29 yld: 2.15% vs 2.11%
3.00% Bund of '08: 100.05 dn 0.12 yld: 2.99% vs 2.96%
4.50% Bund of '13: 105.27 dn 0.25 yld: 3.82% vs 3.64%
4.75% Bund of '34: 100.31 dn 0.54 yld: 4.72% vs 4.58%
2-30 Year spread: 257 BPs Vs 258 BPs
10-Yr Yield Spread To U.S.: +28 vs +31
Eurex June Bund future: 116.51 dn 0.14
Eurex June Bobl future: 113.07 dn 0.08
10-Yr Yield spreads to Germany:
France - 0.05 vs 0.05 Italy - 0.17 vs 0.17
Belgium - 0.10 vs 0.10 Spain - 0.07 vs 0.07
Netherlands - 0.07 vs 0.07
Thursday June 26th 2003, 3:32 PM
ODJ Debt Futures Review: Tumbles As 25-BP Cut Prompts Tech Selling
-- Liquidation Continues In Wake of Wednesday's 25-BP Fed Cut
-- Declines Accelerate As Sell Stops Triggered During Descent
By Allen Sykora
Chicago, June 26 (OsterDowJones) - Debt futures took it on the chin as many traders concluded that the Federal Reserve may not be cutting rates any more, and therefore the bull market may have run its course, sources said.
A round of sell stops was triggered in the bonds early Thursday, then another smaller round was triggered late in the morning. Stops were also touched in 10-year notes.
Sep 10-year notes settled down 1 8/32 at 117 6/32, while Sep Treasury bonds fell 1 24/32 to 117 3/32. Dec eurodollars lost 7 basis points to 98.82.
The market continued a sell-off that began late Wednesday when policy- makers opted to cut interest rates by just 25 basis points rather than the 50 some market participants had been hoping for. The federal-funds rate now stands at 1%, its lowest level since 1958.
The market is starting to factor in an expectation that there may be no more rate cuts coming from policy-makers, although any hikes may likewise be a ways away, said Bill O'Grady, director of futures research with A.G. Edwards.
He pointed out that the more deferred eurodollar contracts have fallen harder than the nearby contracts as the market takes back some of the potential easing that had been priced in. For instance, while the Dec eurodollars lost 7 basis points, the Dec 2005 contract fell 18 basis points.
"The bull run is probably over," said O'Grady. "Not only did the Fed not cut as much as the market wanted, but the market has come to the conclusion that this is probably it. And, history shows that in most cases, the last easing is bearish."
Part of the dilemma for the bulls is that as prices rose so much lately, yields tumbled so far that interest-rate products became a less desirable asset class, sources explained.
"The only rationale for buying bonds at this point is you think the wheels are going to come off (of the economy) and we go into a depression," said O'Grady. "It could happen, but the odds are pretty small."
A trader commented that selling was coming not only from disappointed longs who had been looking for a 50 basis-point cut, but also from those who had guessed a 25 basis-point cut and are now capturing profits on buy-the- rumor, sell-the-fact activity. This in turn has led to technically inspired selling as prices continued to fall, he said.
Going forward, if the declines continue, the long end of the yield curve likely will get hit worse than the front end, said O'Grady. Typically, he explained, the really big blow to the front end tends to not come until the Federal Reserve actually does start to hike rates.
"There is an anchor down there for the short end of the curve," he continued, referring to the federal-funds rate.
Craig Ross, president of ApexFutures.com, noted that sell stops initially were touched when the Sep bonds fell through the 118 handle. That was the low on June 20, before the market had rallied by roughly three full points into Wednesday's high.
Around mid-morning, the bonds stopped heading to the downside at a low of 117-04. That held for around 1 1/2 hours, but when this level finally fell not long before noon CT (1700 GMT), more stops were touched, sources said.
"There weren't near as many as at the 118 level, but that seemed to propel it down," Ross said. The Sep bonds bottomed at 116-30.
Ross put initial support at the session low, with further support at 116 even and then a gap left on a chart for open-outcry trade only between the May 7 low of 113-30 and the May 6 high of 113-14.
In fact, sources noted that gaps were left Thursday in day-session charts for the bonds and 10-year notes. On an open-outcry chart for Sep bonds, a gap now lies between today's high of 118-09 and Wednesday's low of 118-11. On an open-outcry chart for Sep 10-year notes, a gap now lies between the session high of 118-01 and Wednesday's low of 118-05.
Economic data were mixed, but the market was already sharply lower before the two main reports of the day hit the news wires. Weekly first-time jobless claims fell 22,000 to 404,000, while growth in first-quarter gross domestic product was revised downward to 1.4% from the previously reported 1.9%.
Friday's data begins with the release of May personal income and spending data at 0730 CT (1230 GMT). Expectations are for a 0.3% rise in income and 0.2% increase in spending.
The University of Michigan's end-of-June consumer-sentiment index is due out around 0845 CT (1345 GMT). The forecast is for a reading of around 87, compared to 87.2 in the middle of the month and 92.1 at the end of May.
LONDON (Dow Jones)06/27--Euro-zone government bonds were down in late trade Friday
but off session lows as investors covered short positions into the weekend.
"It's been a rollercoaster ride this week and sellers are now squaring up,"
said a broker with a U.K. bank in London.
"But the near-term outlook is negative so any rallies will be fragile and
based on covering," he added.
At 1500 GMT, the September bund future on Eurex was down 0.14 at 116.51, but
off the day's low of 116.23. Analysts at Monument Securities peg support at
116.26 and resistance in the key 117.09 area.
The benchmark 10-year cash bund was trading at 105.27, down 0.25 to yield
3.82%.
"The markets are now taking a breather and reassessing the situation. Many
may feel yields don't need to go up any further," said John Davies,
fixed-income strategist at WestLB in London.
Bund futures were lagging Treasurys on "follow-through selling as they are
still playing catch-up" (with the U.S. sell-off), he added. But the 10-year
German/U.S. spread continues to move in Europe's favor, he noted, as it has
narrowed from 42 basis points just before the Fed's rate verdict to 28 basis
points now.
"Treasurys will only start outperforming if we get a run of poor U.S. data,"
Davies said.
Looking ahead to next week, events will be dominated by Friday's U.S.
employment report and the ISM survey on Tuesday.
Before that Monday, the markets will have German manufacturing orders,
euro-zone money supply, European Union confidence survey and Chicago purchasing
managers' index figures to digest.
On the supply front, analysts at Merrill Lynch note that euro-zone markets
will get an enormous liquidity injection in July. Redemptions and coupon
payments total EUR90 billion while Merrill estimates supply at just EUR50
billion, leaving a net injection of EUR40 billion.
Historically this is large, as the net monthly injection since January 2000
has amounted to a monthly drain of EUR4 billion.
One dealer said it's important to distinguish the source of the liquidity -
redemptions tend to get recycled back into the short end, while coupon payments
can be invested anywhere along the yield curve.
2.50% Schatz of '05: 100.59 dn 0.29 yld: 2.15% vs 2.11%
3.00% Bund of '08: 100.05 dn 0.12 yld: 2.99% vs 2.96%
4.50% Bund of '13: 105.27 dn 0.25 yld: 3.82% vs 3.64%
4.75% Bund of '34: 100.31 dn 0.54 yld: 4.72% vs 4.58%
2-30 Year spread: 257 BPs Vs 258 BPs
10-Yr Yield Spread To U.S.: +28 vs +31
Eurex June Bund future: 116.51 dn 0.14
Eurex June Bobl future: 113.07 dn 0.08
10-Yr Yield spreads to Germany:
France - 0.05 vs 0.05 Italy - 0.17 vs 0.17
Belgium - 0.10 vs 0.10 Spain - 0.07 vs 0.07
Netherlands - 0.07 vs 0.07
Thursday June 26th 2003, 3:32 PM
ODJ Debt Futures Review: Tumbles As 25-BP Cut Prompts Tech Selling
-- Liquidation Continues In Wake of Wednesday's 25-BP Fed Cut
-- Declines Accelerate As Sell Stops Triggered During Descent
By Allen Sykora
Chicago, June 26 (OsterDowJones) - Debt futures took it on the chin as many traders concluded that the Federal Reserve may not be cutting rates any more, and therefore the bull market may have run its course, sources said.
A round of sell stops was triggered in the bonds early Thursday, then another smaller round was triggered late in the morning. Stops were also touched in 10-year notes.
Sep 10-year notes settled down 1 8/32 at 117 6/32, while Sep Treasury bonds fell 1 24/32 to 117 3/32. Dec eurodollars lost 7 basis points to 98.82.
The market continued a sell-off that began late Wednesday when policy- makers opted to cut interest rates by just 25 basis points rather than the 50 some market participants had been hoping for. The federal-funds rate now stands at 1%, its lowest level since 1958.
The market is starting to factor in an expectation that there may be no more rate cuts coming from policy-makers, although any hikes may likewise be a ways away, said Bill O'Grady, director of futures research with A.G. Edwards.
He pointed out that the more deferred eurodollar contracts have fallen harder than the nearby contracts as the market takes back some of the potential easing that had been priced in. For instance, while the Dec eurodollars lost 7 basis points, the Dec 2005 contract fell 18 basis points.
"The bull run is probably over," said O'Grady. "Not only did the Fed not cut as much as the market wanted, but the market has come to the conclusion that this is probably it. And, history shows that in most cases, the last easing is bearish."
Part of the dilemma for the bulls is that as prices rose so much lately, yields tumbled so far that interest-rate products became a less desirable asset class, sources explained.
"The only rationale for buying bonds at this point is you think the wheels are going to come off (of the economy) and we go into a depression," said O'Grady. "It could happen, but the odds are pretty small."
A trader commented that selling was coming not only from disappointed longs who had been looking for a 50 basis-point cut, but also from those who had guessed a 25 basis-point cut and are now capturing profits on buy-the- rumor, sell-the-fact activity. This in turn has led to technically inspired selling as prices continued to fall, he said.
Going forward, if the declines continue, the long end of the yield curve likely will get hit worse than the front end, said O'Grady. Typically, he explained, the really big blow to the front end tends to not come until the Federal Reserve actually does start to hike rates.
"There is an anchor down there for the short end of the curve," he continued, referring to the federal-funds rate.
Craig Ross, president of ApexFutures.com, noted that sell stops initially were touched when the Sep bonds fell through the 118 handle. That was the low on June 20, before the market had rallied by roughly three full points into Wednesday's high.
Around mid-morning, the bonds stopped heading to the downside at a low of 117-04. That held for around 1 1/2 hours, but when this level finally fell not long before noon CT (1700 GMT), more stops were touched, sources said.
"There weren't near as many as at the 118 level, but that seemed to propel it down," Ross said. The Sep bonds bottomed at 116-30.
Ross put initial support at the session low, with further support at 116 even and then a gap left on a chart for open-outcry trade only between the May 7 low of 113-30 and the May 6 high of 113-14.
In fact, sources noted that gaps were left Thursday in day-session charts for the bonds and 10-year notes. On an open-outcry chart for Sep bonds, a gap now lies between today's high of 118-09 and Wednesday's low of 118-11. On an open-outcry chart for Sep 10-year notes, a gap now lies between the session high of 118-01 and Wednesday's low of 118-05.
Economic data were mixed, but the market was already sharply lower before the two main reports of the day hit the news wires. Weekly first-time jobless claims fell 22,000 to 404,000, while growth in first-quarter gross domestic product was revised downward to 1.4% from the previously reported 1.9%.
Friday's data begins with the release of May personal income and spending data at 0730 CT (1230 GMT). Expectations are for a 0.3% rise in income and 0.2% increase in spending.
The University of Michigan's end-of-June consumer-sentiment index is due out around 0845 CT (1345 GMT). The forecast is for a reading of around 87, compared to 87.2 in the middle of the month and 92.1 at the end of May.
compreso il bombey index . ciao a lunedi'
), 
.
)
