Fed's Waller: If the current 25% average tariff rate stays for some time, inflation could peak near 5%.
In this large-tariff scenario, the drag on output and employment could be longer-lasting, unemployment could rise to 5%
Fed's Waller: In the scenario where tariffs drop down to 10%, inflation could peak at 3%.
Fed's Waller: If small tariff inflation effect, could cut later this year