COMMODITIES ... solo per pochi pazzi !!!

[ditropan]

... dato molto interessante ... grazie a $ailor che mi ha gentilmente dornito i dati sono riuscito a ricavare il grafico del corn corretto dall'inflazione .... otare come i prezzi attuali pur non avendo toccato i minimi trentennali, dal punto di vista reale siamo al di sotto dei minimi del 1987 (275,14) e alla pari con i minimi 1988 (199,16).

allego file excel zippato .....

[file:079d3a1660]http://www.investireoggi.it/phpBB2/allegati/1099766825corn.zip[/file:079d3a1660]

 

[ditropan]

stesso discorso per il wheat ....


rimango sbigottito per il grano a 1200 ... ma i freddi dati questo dicono.

 

[ditropan]

Aggiornamento COT ...

 

[ditropan]

questa l'ho rubata a Fernando's .... spero mi perdoni.
l'ho fatto perchè penso che meriti esere letta, riassume bene il quadro e le contraddizioni.
Anche se la mia idea è che in realtà siamo già in rallentamento del ciclo economico e che quindi ceti rialzi come quello del petrolio, rame, ecc... siano arrivati in ritardo rispetto alla attuale condizione economica. (onda 5 ?)

... riporto qui il commento di un amico:
-----------------------------------------------
Fernà, da quello che ne capisco (e che ho scritto ultimamente) il quadro intermarket presenta vistose anomalie che metto in relazione al particolare momento storico che, a mio avviso, è unico e non ha riferimenti storici cui appigliarsi (la sbolla internet, il mutamento indotto da internet nei processi produttivi, la fine dei blocchi intorno alle due superpotenze, lo sviluppo di Cina e India, ecc.)

Il CRB comprende 17 futures, materie prime industriali, alimentari ma anche energetici e metalli preziosi. Poichè le materie servono a fare i prodotti finiti, la relazione storica che ha sempre funzionato è il collegamento tra il CRB Index e l'inflazione.
Un CRB in forte rialzo prelude a forte inflazione: e qui sta la prima anomalia poichè il CRB sta ai massimi da 20 anni ma l'inflazione è sotto controllo dappertutto.

L'inflazione è il peggior nemico dei bond: alta inflazione porta ad alti tassi e quindi calo dei bond. E qui sta la seconda anomalia: l'attuale quotazione dei titoli di stato a lungo termine è tipica di un periodo che precede recessione mentre invece l'indice CRB si è situato ai livelli che precedono lo stadio più avanzato della crescita economica, quindi quello più forte e tumultuoso.

Le Borse reagiscono in ritardo rispetto all'indice CRB tant'è che il rame, per esempio, uno dei componenti del CRB, è definito come un anticipatore dei futuri andamenti di borsa.

In una situazione normale, cioè quella che ripeterebbe i cicli del passato, a questo punto dovremmo avere l'inizio della caduta dei bond e contemporanente un ultimo allungo delle Borse la cui durata potrebbe stimarsi in qualche trimestre o anno al massimo.

Da questo punto di vista quindi concordo con il tuo ragionamento.

Che poi è avvalorato da una ricerca fatta da liquidity.com: storicamente le migliori performance di borsa si sono avute con una inflazione media (attorno al 3,5%).

L'interpretazione alternativa, meno benevola, porterebbe invece a concludere che la fase espansiva dell'economia sia terminata. L'indice CRB si appresta a scendere, gli operatori quindi stanno comprando bond e vendendo azioni.

Questa seconda interpretazione però soffre un limite e cioè il fatto che nel CRB ci sono energetici e metalli preziosi che sono cresciuti sia per la domanda ma anche e soprattutto per il contesto geo-politico. In sostanza, se depurassimo dal CRB l'aspetto speculativo su oro e petrolio (che a loro volta trascinano gasolio, argento ecc.) potremmo concludere che la fase di rialzo delle commodities è lungi dal terminare.
Quale delle due? Il cuore dice la prima.......speriamo che Bush perda le elezioni sennò la vedo nera.

 

[Fleursdumal]

I disordini violenti in Costa d'Avorio stanno facendo schizzare il cacao, non mi perdonerò mai di non averne comprato uno venerdì, orcolo se si vanno a perdere ste occasioni...
Oggi apertura a +10%

 

[Fleursdumal]

UPDATE 4-Cocoa soars in London on Ivory Coast turmoil

(Adds NY react in para 4, details, trader comment in para 14)

By Eleanor Wason

LONDON, Nov 10 (Reuters) - Cocoa prices in London soared on Wednesday but later eased as the international community moved to quell violence in top cocoa producer Ivory Coast.

The French government called on Ivorian authorities to restore order after four days of unrest in France's former West African colony and said the situation was calm in the commercial capital of Abidjan on Wednesday.

London's benchmark cocoa contract for December delivery rose as much as 3.3 percent to 1,021 pounds, the highest price since August 3 and up 22 percent since Ivory Coast's fragile ceasefire collapsed last week.

The gains were later erased in relatively heavy trading and New York cocoa futures opened steady.

"The political temperature is extremely high but it might look better as time goes on. San Pedro is open -- that is a step in the right direction," said Calyon analyst Jonathan Parkman, referring to Ivory Coast's second port.

"(The situation) doesn't make me confident in the long-term prospects for Ivory Coast but I expect cocoa to come out of the country this season in similar volumes to what was expected prior to this round of violence -- even if not at the same speed," he added.

The United Nations is threatening to impose sanctions on Ivory Coast and the African Union may send more peacekeepers to help U.N. and French troops already stationed in the country, which is split between the rebel-held north and government forces in the south.

French citizens were being evacuated to escape violence that broke out in response to the destruction of most of the Ivorian airforce by the French military.

Gunfire killed at least 10 and wounded hundreds in a clash involving French troops, protesters and local security forces on Tuesday.

The crisis is blocking the flow of cocoa during the main crop season in Ivory Coast, which grows 45 percent of the world's cocoa, at a time when demand is ramping up for the holidays.

The collapse of the country's ceasefire has also sparked ethnic tension between local residents and farmers originating from the north of the country in the major cocoa town of Gagnoa, where Ivorian military and police were patrolling the streets on Wednesday after two days of clashes and looting.

Cocoa futures in London surged last Thursday when the Ivorian army attacked rebel bases in the north in the first major outbreak of conflict in 18 months.

London extended gains Friday and Monday before easing on Tuesday as a brief lull in the unrest sparked hopes exports would resume. They then closed almost unchanged on reports of renewed violence and a virtual standstill at the ports.

Work resumed at San Pedro on Wednesday but many leading shippers remained closed, exporters and port officials said. Exporters also stayed away from Abidjan's port.

"The ability of speculators to buy in the U.S. is still with us so it is not game over but the opportunity for more headline reactions is diminishing," a trader said. "The port of San Pedro is opening and it's probably only an amount of time before Abidjan gets going. That might open things up for hedging."

In 2002 world cocoa prices rocketed to a 17-year high amid concern a civil war between north and south would disrupt supplies but Ivory Coast still managed to produce a record crop.

Meanwhile, Barry Callebaut <BARN.SW>, the world's biggest industrial chocolate maker, said it shut its three factories in Ivory Coast and plans to use cocoa from Ghana and Indonesia instead to fulfil contracts.

 

[Fleursdumal]

Oggi le esplosioni al rialzo sul caffè e sui grains su voci di asian rust nei campi in Louisiana

 

[Fleursdumal]

a 10 minuti dalla chiusura il cacao NY è entrato nel gap a 1725 si chiude a 1640, Londra ancora non ma ci manca poco 960---940 , entrato short a 975 su foratura di s2 e chiudiamo gli occhi in sto ottovolante impazzito, chiudo cmq entro la fine sessione

 

[Fleursdumal]

ero appollaiato a 941 su s3 e chiusura gap ma non c'è stato il sell-off finale sperato , chiuso a 956 .

 

[Fleursdumal]

il porto di Abidjan è ora aperto
Il cacao trattato al Liffe ha quasi chiuso il gap, su NY invece c'è ancora molta luce nel grafico


UPDATE 2-Ivorian cocoa ports of San Pedro, Abidjan open

(Recasts with exporters re-opening in Abidjan)

By Ange Aboa

ABIDJAN, Nov 11 (Reuters) - Trucks carrying cocoa beans unloaded on Thursday at Ivory Coast's two main ports of Abidjan and San Pedro as leading exporters started to re-open after days of mob violence in the world's top grower.

"We're open. We've received 10 trucks since this morning and they are continuing to arrive now that the roadblocks have been lifted," said an official at French exporter Touton in the commercial capital Abidjan.

Barry Callebaut, the world's biggest chocolate maker, said its three factories in Abidjan and San Pedro were back in operation after closing earlier in the week as violent anti-French riots threatened the safety of its employees. But port workers said no ships had yet been loaded.

"We've come to work this morning but the warehouses are closed. No ships have docked -- they are all outside the port," said a loading agent from the Coffee and Cocoa Bourse (BCC) marketing body in Abidjan.

London cocoa futures shot up to fresh three-month highs early on Wednesday as the market feared prolonged instability would continue to block beans during the main crop season just as demand ramps up for the holiday period.

World prices eased as the violence subsided, but traders in London said the market remained edgy on Thursday.

"Work has started again and exporters who were closed yesterday have all opened this morning," said Ali Lakiss, manager of Saf-Cacao in San Pedro, a port that exports about half the West African country's crucial cocoa crop.

"The volume of arrivals for this morning is between 7,000 and 8,000 (tonnes) and the cocoa lorries are still arriving at the port," he said, adding that facilities had been clogged with trucks waiting to unload their beans since Wednesday.

Long-standing ethnic tensions between northern cocoa farmers and residents in and around Gagnoa, a major growing area in the centre west, erupted into clashes on Monday and Tuesday before the army restored order.

"I was stuck since Sunday. I had 17 tonnes of cocoa to deliver to our warehouse but because of the situation everything was left in the store," said Alain Leplegnon, chairman of Coopaf in Gagnoa.

"This morning I will be able to deliver it all because there is a bit more order," he said.

At least four exporters re-opened in Abidjan on Thursday, although some said it was not yet business as usual and others remained shut to see whether a lull in the violence would hold.

"We are in the office this morning but we are not really working. Only our buying warehouses upcountry are bringing in cocoa," said the manager of a European exporter in Abidjan.

The American manager of a leading European exporter said he could not open for business as the U.S. embassy had asked its citizens to get ready to leave the former French colony.

"I am not planning to open the factory today because the situation is unstable and the embassy has asked us to get ready to evacuate the country," he told Reuters.

"We have cocoa upcountry and at San Pedro port but we can't transport any of it because everyone is scared," he said.

"Two of my French executives are now at the (French army base in Abidjan) and want to go back to France. That will be a big problem for us for the rest of this season."