JOACKIN
joakin
La si sta complicando troppo. Ho solo notato che se un grafico importante tipo il dollaro rompe dei livelli o ha un inversione improvvisa di direzione in coincidenza di un eclisse poi rotola in quella direzione per parecchio e dato che di eclissi ce ne sono 4-5 l'anno al massimo non è difficile da guardare. L'anno scorso l'eclisse del 1 agosto è stata clamorosa e non l'ho ANTICIPATA solo io (vedi sotto un post scritto il 17 luglio 2008 prima dell'eclisse che appunto prevedeva una frana dei mercati...). Peter Eliades ad esempio che è uno dei top analisti tecnici le cita senza problemi
Non ci trovo niente di irrazionale, il mercato è mosso dalla psicologia collettiva che come noto a volte cambia di colpo senza una relazione evidente coi fatti correnti, gli esseri umani in quanto animali sentono forse a qualche livello campo gravitazionale, la distanza della luna, non so
Mi sembra più logico dell'influenza della "media mobile a 200 giorni" (e perchè non a 100 o 300 o 144 giorni ?), ci sono studi fatti da università sull'influenza della luna (vedi quello citato sotto su 100 anni di borsa americana che trova rendimenti medi doppi intorno alla luna nuova che intorno alla luna piena, cioè i mercati tendono a fare massimi intorno alla luna nuova)
Steve Puetz ha fatto degli studi per cui otto dei maggiori crash della storia del mercati sono avvenuti dopo una eclisse di luna (luna piena) che seguiva immediatamente un eclisse di sole (luna nuova).
Il 5 agosto hai un eclisse di luna (luna piena) che segue immediatamente un eclisse di sole (luna nuova)per cui sono curioso di vedere se funziona come la stessa sequenza dell'anno scorso il 1 agosto (che avevo discusso in anticipo). Non è magia, se vedi che parte un movimento in coincidenza con l'eclissi forse è di quelli grossi, gli dai più peso
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7/17/2008 2:32 PM
THE AUGUST 1ST TOTAL SOLAR ECLIPSE
...findings discussed by Puetz. He emphasized that he is not contending that full moons close to solar eclipses cause market crashes. But he does conclude that a full moon in general and a lunar (eclipse) full moon close to solar eclipses, in particular, seem to be the triggering device that allows for the rapid transformation of investor psychology from manic greed to paranoia. He asks what the odds are that eight of the greatest market crashes in history would accidentally fall within a time period of six days before to three days after a full moon that occurred within six weeks of a solar eclipse? His answer is that for all eight crashes to accidentally fall within the required intervals would be .23 raised to the eighth power less than one chance in 127,000."
". . .Puetz) used eight previous crashes in various markets from the Holland Tulip Mania in 1637 through the Tokyo crash in 1990. He noted that market crashes tend to be lumped near the full moons that are also lunar eclipses. In fact, he states, the greatest number of crashes start after the first full moon after a solar eclipse when that full moon is also a lunar eclipse . . Once the panic starts, Puetz notes, it generally lasts from two to four weeks. The tendency has been for the markets to peak a few days ahead of the full moon, move flat to slightly lower --waiting for the full moon to pass. Then on the day of the full moon or slightly after, the brunt of the crash hits the marketplace."
A total solar eclipse will take place on August 1st that will be followed by a lunar eclipse on August 16th. Puetz highlights the likely crash window as being from six days before to three days after a full moon that occurs within six weeks before or after a solar eclipse, particularly if this full moon is a lunar eclipse. This week's full moon (7/18) falls two weeks before the August 1st solar eclipse which means that a stock market crash window has opened that will close early next week. Are we about to enter a panic of some sort here?:
It's possible, but one should note, according to Puetz observation, the greater likelihood for a crash will be around the full moon/lunar eclipse on August 16th that follows the solar eclipse, i.e., between August 10th and August 19th. Furthermore, stock market seasonality is most conducive to panics in the "fall", i.e., September/October.
While the idea that the moon influences mass mood might seem like lunacy, it is nonetheless true.
Consider, for instance, a University of Michigan Business School study by Ilia Dichev and Troy Janes. This study examined 100 years of the stock market trends as they relate to the lunar phases. According to it, “Returns in the 15 days around New Moon dates are about double the returns in the 15 days around full moon dates. This pattern of returns is pervasive: We find it for all major U.S stock indexes over the past 100 years and for nearly all major stock indexes of 24 other countries over the last 30 years.”...
Non ci trovo niente di irrazionale, il mercato è mosso dalla psicologia collettiva che come noto a volte cambia di colpo senza una relazione evidente coi fatti correnti, gli esseri umani in quanto animali sentono forse a qualche livello campo gravitazionale, la distanza della luna, non so
Mi sembra più logico dell'influenza della "media mobile a 200 giorni" (e perchè non a 100 o 300 o 144 giorni ?), ci sono studi fatti da università sull'influenza della luna (vedi quello citato sotto su 100 anni di borsa americana che trova rendimenti medi doppi intorno alla luna nuova che intorno alla luna piena, cioè i mercati tendono a fare massimi intorno alla luna nuova)
Steve Puetz ha fatto degli studi per cui otto dei maggiori crash della storia del mercati sono avvenuti dopo una eclisse di luna (luna piena) che seguiva immediatamente un eclisse di sole (luna nuova).
Il 5 agosto hai un eclisse di luna (luna piena) che segue immediatamente un eclisse di sole (luna nuova)per cui sono curioso di vedere se funziona come la stessa sequenza dell'anno scorso il 1 agosto (che avevo discusso in anticipo). Non è magia, se vedi che parte un movimento in coincidenza con l'eclissi forse è di quelli grossi, gli dai più peso
----------
7/17/2008 2:32 PM
THE AUGUST 1ST TOTAL SOLAR ECLIPSE
...findings discussed by Puetz. He emphasized that he is not contending that full moons close to solar eclipses cause market crashes. But he does conclude that a full moon in general and a lunar (eclipse) full moon close to solar eclipses, in particular, seem to be the triggering device that allows for the rapid transformation of investor psychology from manic greed to paranoia. He asks what the odds are that eight of the greatest market crashes in history would accidentally fall within a time period of six days before to three days after a full moon that occurred within six weeks of a solar eclipse? His answer is that for all eight crashes to accidentally fall within the required intervals would be .23 raised to the eighth power less than one chance in 127,000."
". . .Puetz) used eight previous crashes in various markets from the Holland Tulip Mania in 1637 through the Tokyo crash in 1990. He noted that market crashes tend to be lumped near the full moons that are also lunar eclipses. In fact, he states, the greatest number of crashes start after the first full moon after a solar eclipse when that full moon is also a lunar eclipse . . Once the panic starts, Puetz notes, it generally lasts from two to four weeks. The tendency has been for the markets to peak a few days ahead of the full moon, move flat to slightly lower --waiting for the full moon to pass. Then on the day of the full moon or slightly after, the brunt of the crash hits the marketplace."
A total solar eclipse will take place on August 1st that will be followed by a lunar eclipse on August 16th. Puetz highlights the likely crash window as being from six days before to three days after a full moon that occurs within six weeks before or after a solar eclipse, particularly if this full moon is a lunar eclipse. This week's full moon (7/18) falls two weeks before the August 1st solar eclipse which means that a stock market crash window has opened that will close early next week. Are we about to enter a panic of some sort here?:
It's possible, but one should note, according to Puetz observation, the greater likelihood for a crash will be around the full moon/lunar eclipse on August 16th that follows the solar eclipse, i.e., between August 10th and August 19th. Furthermore, stock market seasonality is most conducive to panics in the "fall", i.e., September/October.
While the idea that the moon influences mass mood might seem like lunacy, it is nonetheless true.
Consider, for instance, a University of Michigan Business School study by Ilia Dichev and Troy Janes. This study examined 100 years of the stock market trends as they relate to the lunar phases. According to it, “Returns in the 15 days around New Moon dates are about double the returns in the 15 days around full moon dates. This pattern of returns is pervasive: We find it for all major U.S stock indexes over the past 100 years and for nearly all major stock indexes of 24 other countries over the last 30 years.”...
