Gloria ai Bastardi - Cap. 2
- Creatore Discussione gipa69
- Data di Inizio
Dogtown
Forever Ultras Ghetto
Considerazioni sull'attuale prezzo del petrolio:
The highest oil price ever was $147/bbl in 2008.
BUT.
Oil is denominated in fiat currency, and there has been a lot of spendable money printing over the last 15y.
Notice: I am not referring to Central Bank balance sheet as you can't use bank reserves to buy oil.
I am talking about the amount of ''spendable'' money, which in today's monetary system mostly means bank deposits sitting outside the financial industry (households bank deposits first and foremost).
If you think the market gets as tight as 2008, the equivalent oil price in today's USD considering the incremental amount of spendable money since then would be above $250/bbl.
Obviously, real wages haven’t increased as quickly as the amount of spendable money.
Which means that consumers and the private sector are going to feel the heat way below $250, and they are unlikely to be able to support oil prices north of $200 easily.
Nevertheless, the main point remains: commodities are real goods priced in fiat currency (mostly USD in this case), and there's much more spendable fiat currency today than in 2008 as we keep boosting its creation via government deficits and credit creation.
Hence, when comparing oil prices in 2008 against today you should adjust for the amount of spendable money in circulation.
And that means a market as tight as 2008 might lead to much higher prices than $130-140/bbl.
P.S. If you like this macro content, feel free to check out my free newsletter The Macro Compass for more detailed macro insights and actionable investment ideas
The highest oil price ever was $147/bbl in 2008.
BUT.
Oil is denominated in fiat currency, and there has been a lot of spendable money printing over the last 15y.
Notice: I am not referring to Central Bank balance sheet as you can't use bank reserves to buy oil.
I am talking about the amount of ''spendable'' money, which in today's monetary system mostly means bank deposits sitting outside the financial industry (households bank deposits first and foremost).
If you think the market gets as tight as 2008, the equivalent oil price in today's USD considering the incremental amount of spendable money since then would be above $250/bbl.
Obviously, real wages haven’t increased as quickly as the amount of spendable money.
Which means that consumers and the private sector are going to feel the heat way below $250, and they are unlikely to be able to support oil prices north of $200 easily.
Nevertheless, the main point remains: commodities are real goods priced in fiat currency (mostly USD in this case), and there's much more spendable fiat currency today than in 2008 as we keep boosting its creation via government deficits and credit creation.
Hence, when comparing oil prices in 2008 against today you should adjust for the amount of spendable money in circulation.
And that means a market as tight as 2008 might lead to much higher prices than $130-140/bbl.
P.S. If you like this macro content, feel free to check out my free newsletter The Macro Compass for more detailed macro insights and actionable investment ideas
snapo
the greater the truth, the greater the libel
un mondo governato e popolato da una maggioranza di buzzurri
la cui massima aspirazione è un happy meal
quel mondo crederà a tutto quello che gli racconti...
anche che sia giusto ciò...
www.theguardian.com
per i non buzzurri invece c'è questo...
la cui massima aspirazione è un happy meal
quel mondo crederà a tutto quello che gli racconti...
anche che sia giusto ciò...
Cardiff Philharmonic removes Tchaikovsky performance over Ukraine conflict
Orchestra faces ridicule over decision to remove Tchaikovsky’s 1812 overture
per i non buzzurri invece c'è questo...
Dogtown
Forever Ultras Ghetto
un mondo governato e popolato da una maggioranza di buzzurri
la cui massima aspirazione è un happy meal
quel mondo crederà a tutto quello che gli racconti...
anche che sia giusto ciò...
Vedi l'allegato 646509
Cardiff Philharmonic removes Tchaikovsky performance over Ukraine conflict
Orchestra faces ridicule over decision to remove Tchaikovsky’s 1812 overture
per i non buzzurri invece c'è questo...
Un mix letale di ignoranza, ipocrisia e odio ingiustificato da quelli che in teoria dovrebbe "insegnare" e "acculturare" le persone.
Ma si sa che vivere nella teoria, in un mondo parallelo, fatto di dogmi e non di realtà, porta a questi comportamenti.
snapo
the greater the truth, the greater the libel
snapo
the greater the truth, the greater the libel
Costi dell’energia alle stelle, anche la Corrà costretta a fermarsi: «Costi insostenibili»
Dopo Pro-Gest e Grigolin, un’altra azienda si arrende in provincia di Treviso. «O i clienti accettano pesanti rincari, o è meglio lo stop»
#DRAGHIFACOSE
