paologorgo
Chapter 11
non ho capito...
Obbligazioni societarie GM, Ford, Chrysler: il 3D dell'automotive USA (2 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione Imark
- Data di Inizio
non ho capito...
visualapproach
aka VictorGolf
Ti premetto che non sono in Gm (anche se la questione non mi lascia indifferente ...), tuttavia non capisco la linea di Obama: sostiene fino a ieri Gm a suon di bigliettoni e poi solo dopo mesi e mesi di tracheggiamento scopre che il piano presentato é un colabrodo, che Wagoner va silurato, che occorre affrontare la crisi con altre soluzioni, anche forse con il ricorso al Ch. 11 .
Sarà che ormai nemmeno loro sanno che pesci pigliare, però non mi sembra che quanto visto fino ad oggi sia stato il miglior modello di aiuto alle tre sorelle dell'auto.
Non entro nel merito, poi, del Ch.11, visto che l'utilizzo di tale sistema come rimedio selettivo per tirare fuori dal pantano oggi GM e le altre malate é veramente fuori dalle regole del mercato: Obama é entrato in campo, ha sostenuto le realtà in difficoltà, chi più e chi meno, rompendo la sacrale autonomia del mercato e la sua capacità di autoregolamentazione.
Non giudico l'intervento, però, ora, non trovo giusto riportare la questione entro i binari propri: l'intervento statale deve essere compiuto fino in fondo, cercando, di salvare, con altri strumenti, la situazione, evitando di pregiudicare qualsiasi soggetto coinvolto nella situazione.
Sarà che ormai nemmeno loro sanno che pesci pigliare, però non mi sembra che quanto visto fino ad oggi sia stato il miglior modello di aiuto alle tre sorelle dell'auto.
Non entro nel merito, poi, del Ch.11, visto che l'utilizzo di tale sistema come rimedio selettivo per tirare fuori dal pantano oggi GM e le altre malate é veramente fuori dalle regole del mercato: Obama é entrato in campo, ha sostenuto le realtà in difficoltà, chi più e chi meno, rompendo la sacrale autonomia del mercato e la sua capacità di autoregolamentazione.
Non giudico l'intervento, però, ora, non trovo giusto riportare la questione entro i binari propri: l'intervento statale deve essere compiuto fino in fondo, cercando, di salvare, con altri strumenti, la situazione, evitando di pregiudicare qualsiasi soggetto coinvolto nella situazione.
paologorgo
Chapter 11
rispetto l'opinione, ma io a volte tendo a semplificare: Gm si è rivolta allo Stato come ultima fonte di finanziamento, non essendo in grado di proseguire l'attività. E' ovvio che questo avrebbe causato problemi sociali ad una zona già severamente colpita dalla disoccupazione e dipendente dall'industria automobilistica.
In un momento politico particolare, di passaggio di poteri, è stato concesso un prestito (decisione politica...), legato alla presentazione di un piano di ristrutturazione, ed al rispetto di alcune condizioni (ristrutturazione debito e accordi sindacali sul costo orario del lavoro, principalmente). Nessuna condizione è stata rispettata ed il piano non è stato giudicato sufficiente. Vengono però concessi altri 30 e 60 giorni, e soldi aggiuntivi, poi è bancarotta (preferibilmente "prepackaged", è un istituto che esiste nella procedura, non una invenzione di adesso).
Il resto per me è commento, ed è possibile da tante angolazioni...
visualapproach
aka VictorGolf
Io la chiudo così: per un malato che si trascina da anni, con oltre 80 miliardi di dollari di perdite solo dal 2005, le regole del gioco sono saltate da tempo immemorabile.
Forse il Ch.11, o quella del caso, sarebbe stato più coerente alcuni anni fa, non oggi ...
Ultima modifica:
Onoff
Forumer attivo
Ecco fatto:
Attesa per General Motors (GM.N): il nuovo amministratore delegato, Fritz Henderson, ha detto ieri sera in una conferenza stampa che la bancarotta assistita e guidata dalla Casa Bianca è in questo momento una proceduta meno rischiosa del fallimento attraverso la tradizionale amministrazione controllata.
www.websim.it
Attesa per General Motors (GM.N): il nuovo amministratore delegato, Fritz Henderson, ha detto ieri sera in una conferenza stampa che la bancarotta assistita e guidata dalla Casa Bianca è in questo momento una proceduta meno rischiosa del fallimento attraverso la tradizionale amministrazione controllata.
www.websim.it
paologorgo
Chapter 11
The real poker game started today. President Obama upped the ante by claiming that he was prepared to see GM go into bankruptcy. Now the unions and the creditors have to figure out if it's a bluff or not. It’s not an easy call when you consider that the guy you’re playing cards with has a bunch of backers that might make him change his strategy in mid-stream. In other words, he has to talk to Congress before he can respond to any bets that up the ante.
For the unions it’s probably a little easier game to play. Whether true or not I suspect that they figure that what they give up now can be taken back later. After all, some of Obama’s chips were purchased for him by them. Basically, cave to the extent necessary and live to fight another day. Chances are your friends will make sure you don’t suffer too much.
The real action will be with the creditors. Whatever they give up is gone forever. Trading debt for equity in a company with a badly fractured business model is bad enough. Layer on the fact that the company operates in an industry that has far too much capacity and you’re rolling the dice (sorry about mixing metaphors here).
They have a couple things going for them. The government blinked the last time it tried to force a debt for equity swap. Recall that was part of the GMAC (GKM) bailout and when the debt holders didn’t step up as required the government looked the other way. They also have time. Obama set a sixty day or else time limit. The problem with that is if there is no agreement at the deadline his 'or else option' isn’t so inviting.
If the feds want to take GM into bankruptcy without some prearranged agreement with the creditors, you are not talking about a clean, quick rinse. That would mark the beginning of a war. It could take years to sort everything out and while a lot of people think the company could survive a prepackaged Chapter ll, few think it would make it through a protracted battle.
A lot is going to depend on how hard the Obama administration wants to play this game. They can exert substantial pressure on the creditors, particularly if the bondholders end up being the only sticking point. Given the unprecedented involvement of the government in the financial affairs of the country at this point in time, they can probably exert not too subtle pressure behind the scene as well.
It’s going to be interesting to see who folds first. It shouldn’t be a surprise if this goes down to the wire or that the finish line gets pushed out a bit. Just a guess but I think that this will go right up to the brink before anyone blinks and I think that one will be the government.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/128715-the-gm-poker-game-is-obama-bluffing?source=wl_sidebar
For the unions it’s probably a little easier game to play. Whether true or not I suspect that they figure that what they give up now can be taken back later. After all, some of Obama’s chips were purchased for him by them. Basically, cave to the extent necessary and live to fight another day. Chances are your friends will make sure you don’t suffer too much.
The real action will be with the creditors. Whatever they give up is gone forever. Trading debt for equity in a company with a badly fractured business model is bad enough. Layer on the fact that the company operates in an industry that has far too much capacity and you’re rolling the dice (sorry about mixing metaphors here).
They have a couple things going for them. The government blinked the last time it tried to force a debt for equity swap. Recall that was part of the GMAC (GKM) bailout and when the debt holders didn’t step up as required the government looked the other way. They also have time. Obama set a sixty day or else time limit. The problem with that is if there is no agreement at the deadline his 'or else option' isn’t so inviting.
If the feds want to take GM into bankruptcy without some prearranged agreement with the creditors, you are not talking about a clean, quick rinse. That would mark the beginning of a war. It could take years to sort everything out and while a lot of people think the company could survive a prepackaged Chapter ll, few think it would make it through a protracted battle.
A lot is going to depend on how hard the Obama administration wants to play this game. They can exert substantial pressure on the creditors, particularly if the bondholders end up being the only sticking point. Given the unprecedented involvement of the government in the financial affairs of the country at this point in time, they can probably exert not too subtle pressure behind the scene as well.
It’s going to be interesting to see who folds first. It shouldn’t be a surprise if this goes down to the wire or that the finish line gets pushed out a bit. Just a guess but I think that this will go right up to the brink before anyone blinks and I think that one will be the government.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/128715-the-gm-poker-game-is-obama-bluffing?source=wl_sidebar
paologorgo
Chapter 11
a memoria c'è anche un bilioncino di debentures in scadenza per giugno... 
GM's (GM) new CEO, Fritz Henderson, concedes it's June 1 or bust. "More time isn't going to help the process," he says, admitting a failure to deliver on Task Force goals by the deadline would force a Chapter 11 filing.
GM's (GM) new CEO, Fritz Henderson, concedes it's June 1 or bust. "More time isn't going to help the process," he says, admitting a failure to deliver on Task Force goals by the deadline would force a Chapter 11 filing.
paologorgo
Chapter 11
GM Chief Financial Officer Ray Young told me in a phone discussion Tuesday that the previous offers extended to the company’s union and bondholders are no longer valid. They are going to get new offers, and they will be harsher, per order of the White House.He went on to say that the White House did not give the company a new specific set of terms, but that the administration’s new goal is a “maximum conversion of debt to equity.”
In other words, instead of giving the UAW and bondholders cash or new debt, they should be forced to take as much stock as possible.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/29975321/site/14081545?__source=yahoo|headline|quote|text|&par=yahoo
In other words, instead of giving the UAW and bondholders cash or new debt, they should be forced to take as much stock as possible.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/29975321/site/14081545?__source=yahoo|headline|quote|text|&par=yahoo
paologorgo
Chapter 11
This is not the way to avoid bankruptcy. GM, which will announce March car sales Wednesday, has told its dealers the company has achieved less than two-thirds of its retail sales goal for this month. GM, which had a March sales target of 143,800 Azteks (I jest, I jest), has only sold 91,400 through Monday - a number which will disappoint even the worst case scenarios, which project the soon-to-be-bankrupt automaker as declining by 48%.
Together with comparable ugly numbers from Ford (F) and Chrysler, the March SAAR will likely be below the 8.8 million consensus - a number last seen in December 1981. This compares with a 9.6 million January and 9.1 million February SAAR. Other consensus estimates are for drops of 46% at Ford and 45% at Chrysler, together with 41% for Toyota (TM) and 42% for Nissan (NSANY).
http://seekingalpha.com/article/128...t-even-worst-case-scenarios?source=wl_sidebar
Together with comparable ugly numbers from Ford (F) and Chrysler, the March SAAR will likely be below the 8.8 million consensus - a number last seen in December 1981. This compares with a 9.6 million January and 9.1 million February SAAR. Other consensus estimates are for drops of 46% at Ford and 45% at Chrysler, together with 41% for Toyota (TM) and 42% for Nissan (NSANY).
http://seekingalpha.com/article/128...t-even-worst-case-scenarios?source=wl_sidebar
Jessica.
out of time...
Io le ho vendute in perdita grazie a qui farabutti di I98mark e Gaudente.
......che si sono messi a saltare e ballare sul tasto sinistro del tuo mouse..??
Perdere soldi......fa' sangue..
...li recupererai.........forse.