Researcher
Stop Loss? No, Thanks!!!
Raga.........intanto Ford, zitta zitta, non ha quasi battuto giglio: in leggero calo bond e azioni......
Obbligazioni societarie GM, Ford, Chrysler: il 3D dell'automotive USA (2 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione Imark
- Data di Inizio
paologorgo
Chapter 11
Raga.........intanto Ford, zitta zitta, non ha quasi battuto giglio: in leggero calo bond e azioni......
As GM (GM) and Chrysler falter, Ford's bonds rise 38%. "If you are inclined to bet on auto, you bet on Ford (F)."
March 30 (Bloomberg) -- Ford Motor Co. bonds gained 38 percent this month on average as the second-biggest U.S. automaker asked investors to swap debt at a premium to trading prices to help it avoid bankruptcy or a government bailout.
The debt rally contributed to a 3.6 percent return for the Merrill Lynch & Co. U.S. High Yield Master II index as the Dearborn, Michigan-based automaker boosted its plan to reduce debt by as much as $11.3 billion.
Ford, the only major U.S. car company to reject government aid, is relying on $23.4 billion of debt arranged in 2006 before credit markets seized up. Chrysler LLC and General Motors Corp. have received $17.4 billion in federal loans and are seeking as much as $21.6 billion more. President Barack Obama today gave them deadlines to “fundamentally restructure” or lose that assistance.
“If you are inclined to bet on auto, you bet on Ford,” Shelly Lombard, an analyst at bond research firm Gimme Credit LLC in Montclair, New Jersey, said today in a telephone interview. “They’re the least likely to file. Their liquidity is stronger than GM and Chrysler and that’s made the difference.”
Ford offered to pay bondholders $1.3 billion for a portion of their $8.9 billion in unsecured debt on March 4. The company also asked to buy back $500 million of its $7 billion bank loan maturing in 2013 at a range of 38 cents to 47 cents on the dollar.
Investor Demand
The bank loan rose 18 cents from March 2 to 49 cents of face value on March 27, according to London-based pricing service Markit. On March 23, Ford’s finance arm said it would double to $1 billion the amount it will spend to repurchase the automaker’s term-loan debt.
Ford said it now expects to buy $2.2 billion of the principal amount at 47 percent of face value.
The offer to buy the unsecured debt was “nearly fully subscribed,” Kip Penniman Jr., an analyst at fixed-income research firm KDP Investment Advisors Inc., wrote in a report March 23.
Ford’s 7.45 percent notes due in 2031 rose 13.4 cents since March 2 to 31.6 cents on the dollar today, the highest level since October, after the company offered to pay 30 cents on the dollar for the notes, according to Trace, the bond-price reporting system of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority.
Ford’s 7.25 percent notes maturing in 2011 fell 1.25 cents to 73.25 cents on the dollar today, according to Trace. Ford shares fell 8 cents, or 2.8 percent, to $2.76 in New York Stock Exchange composite trading.
Last Year’s Loss
“Ford has delivered again,” Penniman wrote. “In a climate where positive news is a rarity.”
The company has avoided government loans even after losing $14.7 billion in 2008 amid the worst auto market in 16 years.
In late 2006, Ford arranged $23.4 billion of debt, including a five-year $11.5 billion bank line, giving it more cash than GM or Chrysler. To obtain the financing, Ford had to put up all major assets including its blue oval logo as collateral. Ford borrowed on the credit line in February, asking lenders for the total unused amount, according to a regulatory filing.
“The most important thing Ford did in the past five years was having the liquidity to go through the downturn,” Lombard said. “A lot still depends on how bad the recession gets, but they’re restructuring the balance sheet so they can make money on lower sales levels.”
Final Opportunity
Obama said today that Detroit-based GM, the biggest U.S. automaker, and No. 3 Chrysler must survive without becoming “wards of the state,” and the companies have one last chance to restructure.
The administration forced GM Chief Executive Officer Rick Wagoner out after the company received $13.4 billion in aid since December and requested an additional $16.6 billion.
Chrysler, based in Auburn Hills, Michigan has 30 days to form a partnership with Fiat SpA to get as much as $6 billion in government help after receiving $4 billion, Obama said. Chrysler and parent Cerberus Capital Management LP have a “framework” for an alliance with Fiat, Chrysler said today in an e-mail.
GM and Chrysler’s best chance at success may include a “quick and surgical” bankruptcy, according to a summary given to reporters by the administration.
“Ford is in a different position and is not seeking emergency taxpayer assistance,” Ford spokesman Mark Truby said in an e-mailed statement. “However, we are taking decisive action to transform our business.”
To contact the reporters on this story: Pierre Paulden in New York at [email protected]; Keith Naughton in Southfield, Michigan, at [email protected]
Last Updated: March 30, 2009 17:32 EDT
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ax6kIFkARljM
paologorgo
Chapter 11
In all of the discussions on the U.S. auto industry, GM, Ford (F), and Chrysler, etc., we shouldn't forget about the biggest beneficiaries of the intense global competition in the car industry: American consumers. The top chart above shows the CPI for new cars, which increased annually between 1973 and 1996 at the compounded rate of about 4% before leveling off and falling at a rate of -.50% per year for the last 12 years.
The bottom chart shows the CPI for All Items (4.6% annual inflation rate) vs. the CPI for New Cars (2.6% annual inflation). Since 1973, the CPI has increased by 5 times, compared to only a 2.5 increase in the CPI for new cars. If new cars had increased at the same rate as the CPI for all goods and services, new cars would be twice as expensive today (adjusted for quality). American car consumers have never had it so good - new cars are better and cheaper than at any time in history.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/128563-the-falling-real-price-of-new-cars?source=wl_sidebar
stockuccio
Guest
mi auguro non andrete ad infierire di là, si tratta sempre di gente che si è data la zappa sui piedi e soffre ... anche se bisogna dire che opera meritoria di avvertimento, specialmente Gaudente, l'avevate fatta ...
paologorgo
Chapter 11
che detto da uno che infierisce su tutti i 3d con previsioni catastrofiste...
- scherzo... 
inizio già a leggere post in cui ci si autogiustifica dicendo che "sono state cambiate le carte in tavola" (in realtà Obama sta minacciando di usare strumenti che esistono da sempre e le cui regole sono chiare, mentre la "teoria del salvataggio a tutti i costi e dell'hold out vincente" era proprio un sovvertimento delle regole...): ottimo modo per poi andare a prenderne un'altra, di scoppole... ma tranquillo, non vado a dirglielo...
troppidebiti
Forumer storico
che detto da uno che infierisce su tutti i 3d con previsioni catastrofiste...
inizio già a leggere post in cui ci si autogiustifica dicendo che "sono state cambiate le carte in tavola" (in realtà Obama sta minacciando di usare strumenti che esistono da sempre e le cui regole sono chiare, mentre la "teoria del salvataggio a tutti i costi e dell'hold out vincente" era proprio un sovvertimento delle regole...): ottimo modo per poi andare a prenderne un'altra, di scoppole... ma tranquillo, non vado a dirglielo...
io non capisco perchè chi era in gain non ha venduto, questa mi sembra pura follia
Tom Hanks
Nuovo forumer
io non capisco perchè chi era in gain non ha venduto, questa mi sembra pura follia
Io le ho vendute in perdita grazie a qui farabutti di I98mark e Gaudente.
reef
...
io non capisco perchè chi era in gain non ha venduto, questa mi sembra pura follia
Ho chiuso tutto con un modesto gain i primi della scorsa settimana, quando la puzza stava aumentando. Mi sono chiesto anch'io perchè altri non l'hanno fatto. L'ho anche annunciato in modo da "sollecitare" chi aveva la possibilità di farlo.
La cosa ridicola(tragica) è che qualcuno addirittura entra in questa fase...
PS Oggi rapidissimo trade su GMAC (che droga, mannaggia!)
paologorgo
Chapter 11
Despite progress on an alliance 'framework' between Chrysler and Fiat, 'substantial hurdles' remain, and a tentative cost-cutting deal with union workers doesn't go far enough. As one analyst puts it, Obama's 30-day agenda may be an 'impossible goal.'
If a tie-up is agreed upon, Fiat would initially take a 20% stake in Chrysler, and ultimately be limited to a 49% stake. In the process, Cerberus Capital Management will likely lose its entire stake in Chrysler.
S.A.
If a tie-up is agreed upon, Fiat would initially take a 20% stake in Chrysler, and ultimately be limited to a 49% stake. In the process, Cerberus Capital Management will likely lose its entire stake in Chrysler.
S.A.
visualapproach
aka VictorGolf
Le regole saranno anche chiare (anche in Italia spesso lo sono ... ma non é questo il problema ... ), tuttavia l'utilizzo di tali strumenti non mi sembra così trasparente.