paologorgo
Chapter 11
non tutto condivisibile, ma interssante, soprattutto nelle previsioni di market share per il 2014:
The Newest Model From Detroit
By JAY PALMER | MORE ARTICLES BY AUTHOR
Asian auto makers and Ford are likely to achieve pole position in the industry shakeout. But dump Chrysler at the nearest junkyard.
WHEN THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION RULED LAST WEEK that the latest recovery plans submitted by Chrysler and General Motors were unrealistic, and gave both new deadlines to shape up, it set the stage for a reordering of the U.S. auto market that will hand Asian auto makers the biggest share and make Toyota No. 1.
It now looks as if Chrysler will soon be part of Italy's Fiat (ticker: FIATY), which will hold onto only some of the U.S. company's assets. By the end of June, General Motors (GM) will most likely be in government-protected bankruptcy, where it can slim down and reorganize.
The administration's aim is to foster a viable and prosperous -- if smaller -- Detroit and, with that in mind, it last week held out the hope of tax incentives for buyers of North American-made vehicles who trade in clunkers (see D.C. Current).
"IT'S AMAZING," ARGUES AUTO-INDUSTRY consultant Maryann Keller, a former Wall Street analyst. "For the first time in 30 years, Washington has finally got it where Detroit is concerned. This administration is really telling it like it is, not how the auto industry would like it to be. We now have a plan, a realistic plan that will be based on realistic numbers and realistic expectations."
Ironically, the government's move came just days ahead of new-vehicle sales for March -- numbers that, even as they fell for the 17th straight month, seemed to hint the worst might be over. While GM, Chrysler and Ford reported monthly sales that were down 45%, 39% and 41%, respectively, over year-ago numbers, these declines weren't as bad as expected. (Toyota's sales fell 39%, and Honda's dropped 36%.) Several auto makers reported increased showroom traffic, in part thanks to incentives, some of which top $5,000 a vehicle. And March sales beat February's, although they almost always do because buying rises as warmer weather approaches.
For Chrysler, 80%-owned by the private-equity group Cerberus Capital -- which seems eager to give away its share, to disengage from what has turned into a nightmarish investment -- the immediate outlook is grim. (The rest of Chrysler is still owned by Germany's Daimler , which has written down its stake's value to zero.) Having exhausted $4 billion from Uncle Sam and now denied a further $5 billion, its only option seems to be to accept Washington's idea that it form some kind of "partnership" with Fiat, perhaps under which the Italian company would provide smaller, fuel-efficient models that could be built here and maybe sold under the Chrysler name, through the U.S. outfit's dealers. Chrysler would simply become a Fiat unit. (For more on this, see European Trader.)
That's the positive view. There's a negative one, too.
"The basic problem is that Chrysler just isn't making product that people really want to buy," says John Murphy, the senior auto analyst at Merrill Lynch. "A Fiat-Chrysler deal is just crazy and stands no chance of working. Since it is unlikely that Chrysler, unlike GM, could survive even a short-term bankruptcy, I think that for all intents and purposes Chrysler will cease to exist." In that case, Chrysler would go into Chapter 7, lay off its more than 50,000 workers and liquidate its assets.
Under what he calls his "Big Bang" scenario, Murpphy figures Volkswagen might want to buy Chrysler's minivan business. Other foreign firms, including perhaps a Chinese auto maker, could be interested in Dodge and Jeep, while Chrysler Financial could be sold to a private-equity group. The core Chrysler car business would fold.
GM, which has received $13.4 billion of government aid, wants a further $16.6 billion. To get it, it must convince the United Auto Workers to make additional wage and health-care concessions, and persuade its bondholders to accept pennies on the dollar -- all of which seems unlikely without a judge's help. Both Keller and Murpphy see GM giving up at least a third of its existing volume, while halving its production capability, workforce and dealer network. GM would most probably keep Chevrolet, Cadillac and perhaps Saturn. Saab would be unloaded. Hummer would be sold or folded, and Buick, Pontiac and GMC might be history (although Buick might exist abroad; it's very big in China).
Based on 2008 total sales of 13.2 million (down from 2007's 16.1 million), the cuts and closures could remove brands that sold nearly 2.5 million units, close to 20% of the U.S. total. That leaves a nice chunk of market share up for grabs.
WHO WOULD PICK UP SHARE? One winner would be Toyota, but Ford (F) would gain, too. It is likely to win whatever labor concessions GM gets in bankruptcy and probably will refocus itself around the Ford and Lincoln brands, sell Volvo and its Mazda stake, and kill Mercury. Another winner could be South Korea's Hyundai (012630.Korea), which mainly makes small cars and enjoys cheap labor at home. Honda (HMC) and Nissan (NSANY) should pick up share, too.
The big losers in the U.S. could be the European car makers. The ones here already are unlikely to gain share, and the ones that aren't (even including Fiat) have little chance of making inroads. "On balance," says Keller, "the European car companies like Peugeot, Renault, Fiat and VW are all relatively high-cost producers with limited opportunity to grow over here." But if GM closes its European Opel and Vauxhall operations, that could free up market share for them over there.
The Newest Model From Detroit
By JAY PALMER | MORE ARTICLES BY AUTHOR
Asian auto makers and Ford are likely to achieve pole position in the industry shakeout. But dump Chrysler at the nearest junkyard.
WHEN THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION RULED LAST WEEK that the latest recovery plans submitted by Chrysler and General Motors were unrealistic, and gave both new deadlines to shape up, it set the stage for a reordering of the U.S. auto market that will hand Asian auto makers the biggest share and make Toyota No. 1.
It now looks as if Chrysler will soon be part of Italy's Fiat (ticker: FIATY), which will hold onto only some of the U.S. company's assets. By the end of June, General Motors (GM) will most likely be in government-protected bankruptcy, where it can slim down and reorganize.
The administration's aim is to foster a viable and prosperous -- if smaller -- Detroit and, with that in mind, it last week held out the hope of tax incentives for buyers of North American-made vehicles who trade in clunkers (see D.C. Current).
"IT'S AMAZING," ARGUES AUTO-INDUSTRY consultant Maryann Keller, a former Wall Street analyst. "For the first time in 30 years, Washington has finally got it where Detroit is concerned. This administration is really telling it like it is, not how the auto industry would like it to be. We now have a plan, a realistic plan that will be based on realistic numbers and realistic expectations."
Ironically, the government's move came just days ahead of new-vehicle sales for March -- numbers that, even as they fell for the 17th straight month, seemed to hint the worst might be over. While GM, Chrysler and Ford reported monthly sales that were down 45%, 39% and 41%, respectively, over year-ago numbers, these declines weren't as bad as expected. (Toyota's sales fell 39%, and Honda's dropped 36%.) Several auto makers reported increased showroom traffic, in part thanks to incentives, some of which top $5,000 a vehicle. And March sales beat February's, although they almost always do because buying rises as warmer weather approaches.
For Chrysler, 80%-owned by the private-equity group Cerberus Capital -- which seems eager to give away its share, to disengage from what has turned into a nightmarish investment -- the immediate outlook is grim. (The rest of Chrysler is still owned by Germany's Daimler , which has written down its stake's value to zero.) Having exhausted $4 billion from Uncle Sam and now denied a further $5 billion, its only option seems to be to accept Washington's idea that it form some kind of "partnership" with Fiat, perhaps under which the Italian company would provide smaller, fuel-efficient models that could be built here and maybe sold under the Chrysler name, through the U.S. outfit's dealers. Chrysler would simply become a Fiat unit. (For more on this, see European Trader.)
That's the positive view. There's a negative one, too.
"The basic problem is that Chrysler just isn't making product that people really want to buy," says John Murphy, the senior auto analyst at Merrill Lynch. "A Fiat-Chrysler deal is just crazy and stands no chance of working. Since it is unlikely that Chrysler, unlike GM, could survive even a short-term bankruptcy, I think that for all intents and purposes Chrysler will cease to exist." In that case, Chrysler would go into Chapter 7, lay off its more than 50,000 workers and liquidate its assets.
Under what he calls his "Big Bang" scenario, Murpphy figures Volkswagen might want to buy Chrysler's minivan business. Other foreign firms, including perhaps a Chinese auto maker, could be interested in Dodge and Jeep, while Chrysler Financial could be sold to a private-equity group. The core Chrysler car business would fold.
GM, which has received $13.4 billion of government aid, wants a further $16.6 billion. To get it, it must convince the United Auto Workers to make additional wage and health-care concessions, and persuade its bondholders to accept pennies on the dollar -- all of which seems unlikely without a judge's help. Both Keller and Murpphy see GM giving up at least a third of its existing volume, while halving its production capability, workforce and dealer network. GM would most probably keep Chevrolet, Cadillac and perhaps Saturn. Saab would be unloaded. Hummer would be sold or folded, and Buick, Pontiac and GMC might be history (although Buick might exist abroad; it's very big in China).
Based on 2008 total sales of 13.2 million (down from 2007's 16.1 million), the cuts and closures could remove brands that sold nearly 2.5 million units, close to 20% of the U.S. total. That leaves a nice chunk of market share up for grabs.
WHO WOULD PICK UP SHARE? One winner would be Toyota, but Ford (F) would gain, too. It is likely to win whatever labor concessions GM gets in bankruptcy and probably will refocus itself around the Ford and Lincoln brands, sell Volvo and its Mazda stake, and kill Mercury. Another winner could be South Korea's Hyundai (012630.Korea), which mainly makes small cars and enjoys cheap labor at home. Honda (HMC) and Nissan (NSANY) should pick up share, too.
The big losers in the U.S. could be the European car makers. The ones here already are unlikely to gain share, and the ones that aren't (even including Fiat) have little chance of making inroads. "On balance," says Keller, "the European car companies like Peugeot, Renault, Fiat and VW are all relatively high-cost producers with limited opportunity to grow over here." But if GM closes its European Opel and Vauxhall operations, that could free up market share for them over there.
