Obbligazioni societarie GM, Ford, Chrysler: il 3D dell'automotive USA
- Creatore Discussione Imark
- Data di Inizio
Giontra
Forumer storico
Auto Detroit, Chrysler quella più a rischio bancarotta - Moody's
DETROIT, 7 aprile (Reuters) - Moody's Investors Service stima, per i produttori di auto di Detroit, un rischio bancarotta del 70% e ritiene che Chrysler sia quella che corre i maggiori rischi su questo fronte.
Chrysler ha un'intesa per un'alleanza con Fiat
Anche se l'amministrazione del presidente Obama preferirebbe che General Motors Corp e Chrysler LLC ristrutturassero senza far ricorso alla procedura per bancarotta, questa ipotesi sta diventando una possibilità, secondo l'agenzia di rating.
"A causa della mancanza di progressi e a causa dei progressi che sarebbe necessario fare per rispettare il nuovo piano, questa minaccia deve essere considerata credibile", dice Moody's in una nota.
Moody's ha detto che Chrysler ha maggiori difficoltà nel dimostrare la sua capacità di sopravvivere rispetto a GM.
Il rischio bancarotta di Ford Motor è sotto il 70%.
DETROIT, 7 aprile (Reuters) - Moody's Investors Service stima, per i produttori di auto di Detroit, un rischio bancarotta del 70% e ritiene che Chrysler sia quella che corre i maggiori rischi su questo fronte.
Chrysler ha un'intesa per un'alleanza con Fiat
Anche se l'amministrazione del presidente Obama preferirebbe che General Motors Corp e Chrysler LLC ristrutturassero senza far ricorso alla procedura per bancarotta, questa ipotesi sta diventando una possibilità, secondo l'agenzia di rating.
"A causa della mancanza di progressi e a causa dei progressi che sarebbe necessario fare per rispettare il nuovo piano, questa minaccia deve essere considerata credibile", dice Moody's in una nota.
Moody's ha detto che Chrysler ha maggiori difficoltà nel dimostrare la sua capacità di sopravvivere rispetto a GM.
Il rischio bancarotta di Ford Motor è sotto il 70%.
frankiemachine
Mr. Tentenna
paologorgo
Chapter 11
A recent Bloomberg article discussed how GM and Chrysler have been using government aid to "open-up lending" and mitigate the slide in automotive sales:
Halting the Slide: turning in abysmal results that are slightly better than the analysts expectations does not a positive trend make, anecdotal evidence aside it's far too early to call this a positive trend just yet. Especially when it's quite likely that the economy will continue to worsen through the end of the year, especially with respect to unemployment.
Lending: I have to admit that I cringed when I read the passage about GMAC ending its prior moratorium on lending to consumers with FICO scores below 621, call me crazy increasing your loan originations to those with bad credit (especially in a weakening economy) sounds like a recipe for future disaster. This is especially true when you factor in GM's new "payment protection plan", which will cover the loans of people who lose their jobs for a period of nine months. Just think about it: lending to people with FICO scores below 621 (let alone 650 or 675) + a worsening employment situation = GM taking it on the chin with this one.
If you're going to cover people's payments if they lose their jobs you need to start lending to higher quality customers, not lower.
Overall while this is undoubtedly good news for the dealers, I'm not sure that it's truly good news for GM in turns of contributing to the company's turnaround. Just think about it: GM was losing money per car sold during the credit boom when sales volumes were much higher, and the company wasn't offering the same level of incentives. How do you think GM's profit potential per car looks now, in the era of greater sales incentives, low interest rate financing, payment protection and the new program that protects your car's resale value? The company isn't exactly giving cars away right now, but it's getting closer and closer by the minute.
While the company's various cost cutting initiatives will mitigate the financial impact of the above, the fact remains that no company ever turned things around by selling their products/services for a loss. Detroit needs to understand that it's better to sell fewer cars for a profit, than a greater number of cars for a loss. "Making it up with volume" isn't going to work in an environment where volume is rapidly decreasing.
You can read more here.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/130...ding-not-necessarily-good-for-gm?source=yahoo
(From Bloomberg): "April 6 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. sales are “starting to open up” as $7.5 billion in aid to the lending arms of General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC eases a loan logjam for buyers that helped drag the industry to its worst slump since 1981.
The automakers’ sales declined less than analysts expected in March after GM affiliate GMAC LLC received $6 billion from the U.S. Treasury in December, allowing it to loosen lending standards, and Chrysler Financial Corp. got $1.5 billion in January to foster borrowing for retail transactions.
Tight credit had combined with low consumer confidence to slash new-vehicle purchases. While it’s too soon to expect a robust recovery, dealers and others say, the federal support is helping stabilize the industry.
“It’s starting to open up,” said Alan Helfman, vice president of River Oaks Chrysler Jeep in Houston, who estimates he lost a quarter of his November and December sales to rejected loan requests. “We’re starting to be able to sell more cars. It’s not like it used to be yet, but it’s getting better.”
U.S. auto sales tumbled 37 percent in March as record incentive spending and the availability of credit to higher-risk buyers helped mitigate the effect of the highest unemployment since 1983 and consumer confidence near a 42-year low…
...Late in March, GMAC began lending again to buyers with credit scores of less than 621, after stopping in October.
Helfman, the Houston dealer, said about 25 percent of buyers had loans rejected last month, a decline from roughly 40 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008. The usual rate is about 10 percent to 15 percent, he said.
‘Perfect Paperwork’
“You still have to have perfect paperwork: All the facts had better match up,” he said. “At least they’re lending.”
Auto sales last month ran at an annualized rate of 9.86 million, an improvement from the 9.1 million rate in February that was the worst since December 1981. The March total also beat the 8.8 million estimate of 8 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. U.S. sales were 13.2 million in 2008 after averaging about 16 million this decade."
A couple of things about this:The automakers’ sales declined less than analysts expected in March after GM affiliate GMAC LLC received $6 billion from the U.S. Treasury in December, allowing it to loosen lending standards, and Chrysler Financial Corp. got $1.5 billion in January to foster borrowing for retail transactions.
Tight credit had combined with low consumer confidence to slash new-vehicle purchases. While it’s too soon to expect a robust recovery, dealers and others say, the federal support is helping stabilize the industry.
“It’s starting to open up,” said Alan Helfman, vice president of River Oaks Chrysler Jeep in Houston, who estimates he lost a quarter of his November and December sales to rejected loan requests. “We’re starting to be able to sell more cars. It’s not like it used to be yet, but it’s getting better.”
U.S. auto sales tumbled 37 percent in March as record incentive spending and the availability of credit to higher-risk buyers helped mitigate the effect of the highest unemployment since 1983 and consumer confidence near a 42-year low…
...Late in March, GMAC began lending again to buyers with credit scores of less than 621, after stopping in October.
Helfman, the Houston dealer, said about 25 percent of buyers had loans rejected last month, a decline from roughly 40 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008. The usual rate is about 10 percent to 15 percent, he said.
‘Perfect Paperwork’
“You still have to have perfect paperwork: All the facts had better match up,” he said. “At least they’re lending.”
Auto sales last month ran at an annualized rate of 9.86 million, an improvement from the 9.1 million rate in February that was the worst since December 1981. The March total also beat the 8.8 million estimate of 8 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. U.S. sales were 13.2 million in 2008 after averaging about 16 million this decade."
Halting the Slide: turning in abysmal results that are slightly better than the analysts expectations does not a positive trend make, anecdotal evidence aside it's far too early to call this a positive trend just yet. Especially when it's quite likely that the economy will continue to worsen through the end of the year, especially with respect to unemployment.
Lending: I have to admit that I cringed when I read the passage about GMAC ending its prior moratorium on lending to consumers with FICO scores below 621, call me crazy increasing your loan originations to those with bad credit (especially in a weakening economy) sounds like a recipe for future disaster. This is especially true when you factor in GM's new "payment protection plan", which will cover the loans of people who lose their jobs for a period of nine months. Just think about it: lending to people with FICO scores below 621 (let alone 650 or 675) + a worsening employment situation = GM taking it on the chin with this one.
If you're going to cover people's payments if they lose their jobs you need to start lending to higher quality customers, not lower.
Overall while this is undoubtedly good news for the dealers, I'm not sure that it's truly good news for GM in turns of contributing to the company's turnaround. Just think about it: GM was losing money per car sold during the credit boom when sales volumes were much higher, and the company wasn't offering the same level of incentives. How do you think GM's profit potential per car looks now, in the era of greater sales incentives, low interest rate financing, payment protection and the new program that protects your car's resale value? The company isn't exactly giving cars away right now, but it's getting closer and closer by the minute.
While the company's various cost cutting initiatives will mitigate the financial impact of the above, the fact remains that no company ever turned things around by selling their products/services for a loss. Detroit needs to understand that it's better to sell fewer cars for a profit, than a greater number of cars for a loss. "Making it up with volume" isn't going to work in an environment where volume is rapidly decreasing.
You can read more here.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/130...ding-not-necessarily-good-for-gm?source=yahoo
paologorgo
Chapter 11
WASHINGTON, April 8 (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury said on Wednesday that Chrysler LLC [CBS.UL] and General Motors Corp (GM.N) have launched supplier support programs backed by up to $5 billion in U.S. government funds.
The programs will guarantee receivables owed to the auto parts suppliers for any good shipped after March 19.
"The U.S. Treasury Department is pleased that both GM and Chrysler have moved quickly to launch supplier support programs," Treasury spokeswoman Jenni Engebretsen said in a statement. "These efforts, backed by U.S. Treasury resources, will help stabilize the auto supply base and restore credit flows in a critical sector that employs more than 500,000 American workers across the country." (Reporting by David Lawder; Editing by James Dalgleish)
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idAFWEQ00086420090408?rpc=44
The programs will guarantee receivables owed to the auto parts suppliers for any good shipped after March 19.
"The U.S. Treasury Department is pleased that both GM and Chrysler have moved quickly to launch supplier support programs," Treasury spokeswoman Jenni Engebretsen said in a statement. "These efforts, backed by U.S. Treasury resources, will help stabilize the auto supply base and restore credit flows in a critical sector that employs more than 500,000 American workers across the country." (Reporting by David Lawder; Editing by James Dalgleish)
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idAFWEQ00086420090408?rpc=44
Imark
Forumer storico
Facciamo 4 conti: il programma l'hanno varato il 19 .... i produttori pare paghino a 30 gg e a questo giro saranno ligi ... ergo, se tutto va bene da fine aprile ogni giorno è buono per il default...
paologorgo
Chapter 11
Facciamo 4 conti: il programma l'hanno varato il 19 .... i produttori pare paghino a 30 gg e a questo giro saranno ligi ... ergo, se tutto va bene da fine aprile ogni giorno è buono per il default...
anche prima.
In linea puramente teorica, contestualmente alla presentazione del ch 11, si può chiedere l'autorizzazione a pagare i fornitori ad esempio per la merce spedita fino al 18 Aprile. Tanto chi concede il DIP (lo stato...) è sicuramente d'accordo... sta facendo di tutto per salvare l'indotto...
Certo è meno sporca, se passa qualche giorno... ma sono già salvi, i fornitori. JMHO.
paologorgo
Chapter 11
Già è vero...peraltro per i suppliers, bastava pagare una commissione aggiuntiva dell'1% sul valore delle fatture per avere la copertura assicurativa istantanea, girando il rischio allo Stato...
avevo dimenticato...
Supponendo l'abbiano fatto tutti, allora sono solo i tempi tecnici, ogni momento è buono dopo le festività pasquali, altrimenti mi si deprime troppo il mood dei consumatori, anche se in un'ottica USA la Pasqua non è una festività particolarmente rilevante... dal w.e. successivo a questo, sono buoni tutti...
mi pare si potessero "scontare" solo le consegne post 19 Marzo... ma non è importante... comunque è evidente che c'è un deciso cambiamento di passo post-licenziamento di Wagoner.
Non sul fronte accordo UAW o BH, paradossalmente, ma sui fronti che interessano veramente alla task force - è chiaro che le energie sono andate a fare partire questo piano fornitori, e Chrysler e GM hanno ubbidito e fatto la loro parte, e subito. Loro non ne hanno vantaggi, anzi, si spunta una loro arma di ricatto... il crollo dell'indotto... 500.000 persone senza lavoro...
Io continuo a sperare in un out of court, anche perchè ci sarebbero diverse complicazioni tecniche in questo ch 11 in cui evito di addentrarmi, e che potrebbero complicare i piani del Governo, ma i pezzettini del puzzle li stanno mettendo tutti in fila... chi non lo vede o è cieco o non vuole vedere. Poi l'azzardo è sempre possibile e forse alla fine vincente, ma il buco è sempre più stretto...
Imark
Forumer storico
mi pare si potessero "scontare" solo le consegne post 19 Marzo... ma non è importante... comunque è evidente che c'è un deciso cambiamento di passo post-licenziamento di Wagoner.
Non sul fronte accordo UAW o BH, paradossalmente, ma sui fronti che interessano veramente alla task force - è chiaro che le energie sono andate a fare partire questo piano fornitori, e Chrysler e GM hanno ubbidito e fatto la loro parte, e subito. Loro non ne hanno vantaggi, anzi, si spunta una loro arma di ricatto... il crollo dell'indotto... 500.000 persone senza lavoro...
Io continuo a sperare in un out of court, anche perchè ci sarebbero diverse complicazioni tecniche in questo ch 11 in cui evito di addentrarmi, e che potrebbero complicare i piani del Governo, ma i pezzettini del puzzle li stanno mettendo tutti in fila... chi non lo vede o è cieco o non vuole vedere. Poi l'azzardo è sempre possibile e forse alla fine vincente, ma il buco è sempre più stretto...
E' per quello che ho cancellato il messaggio ...
Su tutto il discorso sono d'accordo...
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