Obbligazioni societarie GM, Ford, Chrysler: il 3D dell'automotive USA (1 Viewer)

[paologorgo]

e casualmente, la ricerca di mercato...

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Americans are fed up with the Detroit drama.
Three out of four Americans would rather see General Motors (GM, Fortune 500) and Chrysler face bankruptcy than watch the government pour yet another round of bailout cash into the big U.S. automakers, according to a CNN/Opinion Research poll released Thursday.
While 76% of survey respondents want to see the automakers face bankruptcy, 22% are willing to prop them up with more bailout cash, according to the poll, which surveyed 1,000 Americans from April 3-5.
While GM still hopes to avoid going bankrupt, preparations for a bankruptcy filing have become "intense and earnest" at the Detroit giant, according to a source familiar with the company's plans.
Americans are more divided on the Obama administration's increased involvement in the way businesses and financial institutions are run. According to the survey, which has margin of error of plus or minus 3%, 42% of Americans think the Obama administration has done what it should, while 23% think the government ought to have even more oversight powers. But 35% of respondents say the government has gone too far.
One of the reasons Americans are willing to let the Big Three head into bankruptcy is that many don't see Detroit's woes significantly affecting the national economy.
Of those surveyed, 44% said auto bankruptcies would only cause "minor problems" for the U.S. economy. That's an increase from December's poll results, when 28% of those questioned said the bankruptcy effects would be minor. (For more on Detroit's ripple effects, see "Auto bankruptcy: What it means")
But only 37% of those surveyed in April thought a Detroit bankruptcy would cause "major problems" for the U.S. economy, down from 51% of those polled in December. More than half of Americans think that a Detroit bankruptcy would have no impact on their personal financial situation.

If a major manufacturer does fall into bankruptcy, government guarantees on their warranties could prove critical to maintaining consumer demand for their inventory of cars. The CNN/Opinion pollsters divided their respondent pool in half, asking one group about their willingness to buy a car from a bankrupt auto company. Almost half of those asked - 47% - said they were "not likely at all" to do so, and only 12% said they were "very likely" to buy from a bankrupt company.
But when researchers asked the other half of their survey pool about buying a car from a bankrupt auto maker, they asked how likely the respondent would be to buy if they knew the government would stand behind the warranty on the car. Among those respondents, the "very likely" buy response rate doubled, to 24%, while the "not likely at all" response declined to 27%.
President Barack Obama said late last month that the federal government would stand behind the warranties on all purchases of GM and Chrysler vehicles going forward. Analysts are waiting to see how much the moves pump up sales.


http://money.cnn.com/2009/04/09/autos/opinion_poll/index.htm?source=yahoo_quote

 

[paologorgo]

direi il quadretto sia chiaro, per chi vuole vedere. Ieri il sondaggio che i taxpayers non sono contrari alla bancarotta, oggi questo:

>>Mr. Obama's auto task force has made it "crystal clear" that its members think a managed, or "prepackaged," bankruptcy is GM's best option, said to people familiar with the matter, but it is letting GM pursue the out-of-court option for now.

E' interessante il pezzo relativo al debito dello Stato, che in effetti rischia di non prendere una lira al termine della procedura (sì e no il rimborso del DIP financing...).

Come dice Shark, è ora di guardare al meraviglioso potenziale delle azioni GM?!?

By JOHN D. STOLL, JEFFREY MCCRACKEN and SHARON TERLEP

General Motors Corp., reacting to pressure from the Obama administration, is preparing a new deal for its unsecured bondholders that is much tougher than one it offered just a few weeks ago.
The struggling car maker is considering offering only GM shares to investors who turn in their bonds under its reorganization plan. The original offer included both cash and new GM debt securities as well as 90% of the company's stock.
The Treasury Department, which is essentially crafting GM's restructuring after pumping billions into the company, believed the earlier plan was too generous to bondholders, said people familiar with the matter.
The new bond-exchange offer, which could be presented as soon as next week, is sure to face strong resistance from bondholders. If they reject it, GM could move closer to filing for bankruptcy protection, said people familiar with the situation.
The new plan comes as GM pursues two paths for its overhaul: one outside bankruptcy court, where it receives major concessions from bondholders and its union, and a more likely restructuring inside Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, said people familiar with the matter.
A Treasury spokeswoman declined to comment on current dealings with GM bondholders.
Many of GM's bigger bondholders prefer to negotiate outside of court, said people involved, but have been frustrated by a lack of engagement by the government and GM.
These bondholders also are raising concerns that the bankruptcy revamp GM is considering may be unfair to investors and unions, said these people. The plan would split the company into a "New GM," with its desirable assets such as Chevrolet and Cadillac, and an "Old GM" holding brands such as Saturn and the auto giant's union health-care liabilities.
Treasury officials, many of whom are now working on GM's restructuring from an office in Detroit, plan to meet in coming days with a committee representing GM's bondholders.
In late March, GM offered to give bondholders 90% of the company's equity, and about $8.5 billion in new debt and cash, in exchange for their bonds. Shortly after that, the Obama administration told GM the offer didn't come close to demanding deep enough concessions from bondholders.
Bondholders will likely struggle to know how to value the latest offer, said a person familiar with the matter, because it is not clear what the government will do with the $13.4 billion it has lent GM. In a bankruptcy scenario, the government could reduce its debt in the company by transferring some or all of it to the Old GM, said this person.
If the government agreed to reduce its debt outside bankruptcy, that likely would make GM shares worth more. That could lessen the need to sweeten the bond exchange offer by including cash and new debt. Such a move also could make the United Auto Workers union more favorable to a new health-care deal with GM.
The UAW has been largely unwilling to negotiate with GM until it sees what concessions will be made by bondholders and others. GM realizes it needs to offer the UAW more equity in exchange for wage and benefit concessions if the company is restructured out of court, one person familiar with the matter said.
The standoff between bondholders and the UAW underscores the difficulty surrounding GM's attempt to reorganize without the coercion of bankruptcy. Key players in the Obama administration are pointing to the lack of progress as a reason that bankruptcy could be unavoidable.
Mr. Obama's auto task force has made it "crystal clear" that its members think a managed, or "prepackaged," bankruptcy is GM's best option, said to people familiar with the matter, but it is letting GM pursue the out-of-court option for now.


http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123930165601405901.html?ru=yahoo&mod=yahoo_hs

 

[Jessica.]

.....si conosce l'esposizione delle maggiori banche Americane verso GM ??

 

[paologorgo]

.....si conosce l'esposizione delle maggiori banche Americane verso GM ??

No, a parte il debito secured di Gm detenuto dalle banche (ed a rischio di non rimborso in caso di chapter 11...), relativamente piccolo, non si hanno dati esatti sulla esposizione bancaria in altre forme. Forbes parlava genericamente di grosso impatto potenziale, ma non credo fornisse dati.

 

[stockuccio]

magari il resto del mondo rendesse 'crystal clear' che non si da più un cent agli yankees ....

 

[Imark]

http://www.finanzaonline.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1050369

Sto anche aspettando che venga fuori qualche forumista di là che dica: ma come, un'azienda così florida ed in buona salute, e adesso è andata in default ?

Così davvero poi non ci facciamo mancare nulla: tutto il resto si è già visto...

Intanto, un bell'articolo del WSJ Online fa il punto sulla situazione: cose completamente nuove rispetto a quanto postato da Paolo non ne leggo, ma mi sembra efficace la sintesi ... qui si dà per scontato che le sola reale negoziazione verta sulla possibilità che il Governo lasci in una bad GM una parte o tutto il finanziamento da 13,4 mld euro, così da alleggerire la zavorra con cui partirà la nuova GM ed addolcire la pillola a chi, fra BH e UAW, sarà costretto a scegliere fra minestra e finestra...

Una negoziazione al ribasso, ancor più in una situazione in cui la tua controparte negoziale ha dichiarato a chiare lettere che la tua posizione è priva di ogni valore...

APRIL 10, 2009 GM Plans to Offer Tougher Terms to Bondholders

New Deal, Spurred by Treasury, Could Make Bankruptcy More Likely; Investors Would Receive Only Stock, No Cash


By JOHN D. STOLL, JEFFREY MCCRACKEN and SHARON TERLEP

General Motors Corp., reacting to pressure from the Obama administration, is preparing a new deal for its unsecured bondholders that is much tougher than one it offered just a few weeks ago.

The struggling car maker is considering offering only GM shares to investors who turn in their bonds under its reorganization plan. The original offer included both cash and new GM debt securities as well as 90% of the company's stock.

The Treasury Department, which is essentially crafting GM's restructuring after pumping billions into the company, believed the earlier plan was too generous to bondholders, said people familiar with the matter.

The new bond-exchange offer, which could be presented as soon as next week, is sure to face strong resistance from bondholders. If they reject it, GM could move closer to filing for bankruptcy protection, said people familiar with the situation.

The new plan comes as GM pursues two paths for its overhaul: one outside bankruptcy court, where it receives major concessions from bondholders and its union, and a more likely restructuring inside Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, said people familiar with the matter.
A Treasury spokeswoman declined to comment on current dealings with GM bondholders.

Many of GM's bigger bondholders prefer to negotiate outside of court, said people involved, but have been frustrated by a lack of engagement by the government and GM.

These bondholders also are raising concerns that the bankruptcy revamp GM is considering may be unfair to investors and unions, said these people. The plan would split the company into a "New GM," with its desirable assets such as Chevrolet and Cadillac, and an "Old GM" holding brands such as Saturn and the auto giant's union health-care liabilities.
Treasury officials, many of whom are now working on GM's restructuring from an office in Detroit, plan to meet in coming days with a committee representing GM's bondholders.

In late March, GM offered to give bondholders 90% of the company's equity, and about $8.5 billion in new debt and cash, in exchange for their bonds. Shortly after that, the Obama administration told GM the offer didn't come close to demanding deep enough concessions from bondholders.

Bondholders will likely struggle to know how to value the latest offer, said a person familiar with the matter, because it is not clear what the government will do with the $13.4 billion it has lent GM. In a bankruptcy scenario, the government could reduce its debt in the company by transferring some or all of it to the Old GM, said this person.

If the government agreed to reduce its debt outside bankruptcy, that likely would make GM shares worth more. That could lessen the need to sweeten the bond exchange offer by including cash and new debt. Such a move also could make the United Auto Workers union more favorable to a new health-care deal with GM.

The UAW has been largely unwilling to negotiate with GM until it sees what concessions will be made by bondholders and others. GM realizes it needs to offer the UAW more equity in exchange for wage and benefit concessions if the company is restructured out of court, one person familiar with the matter said.

The standoff between bondholders and the UAW underscores the difficulty surrounding GM's attempt to reorganize without the coercion of bankruptcy. Key players in the Obama administration are pointing to the lack of progress as a reason that bankruptcy could be unavoidable.

Mr. Obama's auto task force has made it "crystal clear" that its members think a managed, or "prepackaged," bankruptcy is GM's best option, said to people familiar with the matter, but it is letting GM pursue the out-of-court option for now

 

[paologorgo]

FRANKFURT, April 10 (Reuters) - Abu Dhabi's government-linked investment fund Aabar AABAR.AD does not plan to buy either further shares in Daimler (DAIGn.DE) or a stake in Opel, a spokesman for Aabar said.
Asked by Reuters about a report on Friday that Aabar was raising its stake in Daimler, the spokesman said: "We are not."
Germany's Focus magazine said Abu Dhabi was in talks to raise its Daimler stake from 9.1 percent now to more than 20 percent. It also said Aabar had no plans to invest in Opel, brushing off speculation the fund could make a white-knight appearance.
Earlier in the week the Aabar spokesman had already denied reports that the investment fund planned to take a stake in Opel, which is frantically seeking an investor.
General Motors' (GM.N) German unit Opel has said it needs 3.3 billion euros ($4.38 billion) in state aid from European governments to save jobs and keep plants open.
But it also said it needs an outside investor to push through its restructuring plan, and so far no one has publicly declared interest in Opel.
The ailing carmaker's rescue has become a political hot potato ahead of German elections in September as pressure mounts to help Opel, which traces its roots to the 19th century and was once a symbol of the country's post-war recovery.
On Monday, Economy Minister Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg had said he could not rule out talks with the emirate over Opel, but he later rejected reports there were concrete plans to travel to Abu Dhabi next week to talk to potential investors.
A German labour leader at the cash-strapped carmaker has confirmed the government of German state of North Rhine-Westphalia held talks with Abu Dhabi about Opel last week, but without naming the possible investors there.
Last month, Abu Dhabi's state-controlled International Petroleum Investment Company (IPIC) bought a 9.1 percent stake in Daimler for almost 2 billion euros. It had at the time already said it was satisfied with its holding for now. ($1=.7530 Euro) (Reporting by Maria Sheahan in Frankfurt. Additional reporting by Stanley Carvalho in Abu Dhabi; Editing by Jon Loades-Carter)

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idAFLA54508520090410?rpc=44

 

[paologorgo]

GM CEO: We Haven't Gone Deep Enough

New General Motors (GM: 2.01, 0.081, 4.2%) CEO Fritz Henderson said his company is working with the government’s task force to repair its hemorrhaging balance sheet and more compromises are needed from the United Auto Workers union.
“All of us have to pull together, there has to be further shared sacrifice in order to make sure General Motors gets the job done,” Henderson said in an exclusive interview with FOX Business's Neil Cavuto.
“We haven’t done enough, we haven’t gone fast enough, we haven’t gone deep enough and that’s exactly what we plan to do.”
He also reaffirmed that bankruptcy could be an option. “If we aren’t able to get the job done out of court, we will do it in court,” he said. The company has received $13.4 billion in government aid over the past few months.
Recently, reports have been swirling that the struggling auto maker is entertaining the idea of bankruptcy and forming a new company from its best assets.
When asked why the idea of bankruptcy wasn’t on the table earlier on, Henderson said that without government support, there wouldn’t be private capital available.
“In the end, bankruptcy is not our preferred option -- it’s still not our preferred option -- but in order to achieve our goals it might be necessary. But in order to have a bankruptcy that is actually successful, one needs to do it quickly so therefore you needs some enablers to get that done.”
Henderson said that Ron Gettelfinger, head of the UAW, shouldn’t be pushed out. Legacy costs for retired union workers, as well as the costs of current union workers, have been a source of contention in the industry.
"We reached a preliminary agreement in February this year on a number of operating measures, that agreement hasn’t been submitted for ratification yet, he said. “We need to make sure that the operations of our business are very, very lean, very competitive and the second thing we need to do is reach a common ground on the funding for example of our VEBA or post-retirement health care. All of that needs to be address in the near term.
Henderson was appointed CEO of GM on March 30 when the White House asked Rick Wagoner, who served as CEO since 2000, to step down.
In late March, the President’s auto task force rejected both GM and Chrysler’s restructuring plans, saying more needed to be done to keep them afloat. GM got assurances of 60 days' worth of federal aid while revising its turnaround plan.
To help boost consumer confidence in the battered auto industry, President Obama announced the government will back new car warranties for domestic auto makers that choose to participate in the program.

http://www.foxbusiness.com/story/markets/business-leaders/gm-ceo-havent-gone-deep/

 

[paologorgo]

NEW YORK, April 10 (Reuters) - Standard & Poor's cut its rating on General Motors Corp's (GM.N) $4.5 billion senior secured revolving credit facility deeper into junk, due to a shrinking pool of assets available to repay lenders and weak demand for its light vehicles.
"Basically GM is shrinking in terms of the assets they secure," Standard & Poor's recovery analyst Greg Maddock said. "The debt stays the same."
S&P lowered the rating on the revolver to CCC-minus from CCC and revised its recovery rating to 2 from 1, reflecting S&P's view that lenders should expect less recovery in the event of a payment default.
Should the automaker default or file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, holders of its senior secured revolver should expect a 70 percent to 90 percent recovery of what they are owed instead of the previous expectation of 90 percent to 100 percent, S&P said.
"The lowering of the rating on the revolving credit facility reflects our view of persistently weaker demand for light vehicles in North America, as well as declining pools of assets securing the revolving credit facility," Maddock said in a statement.
GM is operating under emergency U.S. government loans and is seeking additional support. It has been told by the Obama administration's task force overseeing its bailout that it must cut deeper and faster to continue to receive aid.
The automaker must reach agreements to slash some $28 billion of unsecured debt and restructure funding of a trust for union retirees by June 1. The alternative raised by the task force could be a bankruptcy filing.
News reports have said GM may only offer bondholders a small equity stake in the company, with no cash or new debt. GM has declined to comment on the status of discussions with bondholders.
Maddock said GM, unlike Chrysler Holding LLC [CCMLPD.UL], likely would survive bankruptcy.
S&P kept the GM's corporate credit rating at CC, reflecting S&P's view of the likelihood that GM will default -- through either a bankruptcy or a distressed debt exchange.
The ratings agency also left its rating on GM's $1.5 billion senior secured term loan unchanged, at CCC, two notches above the corporate credit rating. It also left the recovery rating on that debt at 1, indicating that S&P believes those lenders can expect a 90 percent to 100 percent recovery in the event of a payment default. The rating on GM's unsecured debt remains at C, below the corporate credit rating.
"The corporate credit rating reflects our view of the prospects for a distressed debt exchange (which we would consider tantamount to a default under our criteria) or a bankruptcy filing," S&P said. The recovery rating on those bonds remains at 6, indicating S&P believes lenders can expect from no recovery to a 10 percent recovery in the event of a payment default. (Reporting by Ilaina Jonas; Editing by Tim Dobbyn)

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINN1032734220090410?rpc=44

 

[stockuccio]

mi auguro non andrete ad infierire di là, si tratta sempre di gente che si è data la zappa sui piedi e soffre ... anche se bisogna dire che opera meritoria di avvertimento, specialmente Gaudente, l'avevate fatta ...

da tanti post che vedo mi sa tanto che non avete resistito ... secondo me avete fatto male