Obbligazioni societarie GM, Ford, Chrysler: il 3D dell'automotive USA (2 lettori)

paologorgo

Chapter 11
Five years ago, Marjorie Holden paid about $40,000 for some General Motors Corp. bonds, which generate tidy interest ranging from 7.4% to 8.4%. Now the bonds are worth just under $10,000.
The 81-year-old New York widow is watching the negotiations among big, powerful bondholders, the government and the auto unions, which could end up in a settlement leaving her worse off.
"The bondholders are not all rich," says the retired teacher. "I need to conserve my assets."
Thousands of mom-and-pop investors like Ms. Holden own GM bonds, but have seen their value fall along with the fortunes of the auto maker. Just this week GM brought a much tougher offer to bondholders -- to swap their bonds for a small slice of the company's stock.
In talks with GM, a committee of big institutional bond investors has been resisting a settlement. Previously, the company offered a sweeter package that included cash, new bonds and a lot more equity. The latest offer has small bondholders fuming and adds to their feeling of helplessness because the outcome is beyond their control.
e-tenth of that.

About 20% of the GM bondholders are individual investors. Some like Ms. Holden or Mr. Pandolfi bought GM bonds when the auto maker's prospects were much better. This icon of corporate America defined safety to many of them. The bulk of the unsecured bonds, which have a face value of $29 billion, are worth about 15 cents on the dollar.
Other individual GM bond investors are playing the vulture game with the Wall Street pros, trying to benefit from temporary increases in bond prices. That is easier to do with GM because the company has "retail bonds," which have a face value of only $25, and thus are more affordable and liquid than regular bonds, whose face value is $1,000. The GM retail bonds now trade for $2 to $4 each.
David Berger, 36, a Manhattan commercial real-estate broker, says he has made money over the past few months trading in and out of these securities. In March, he had a stake totaling $500,000. Because he has bought so low, they offer a 80% yield. "It's nice to ride the wave," he says.
The situation is grimmer for individual investors who own GM common stock. GM's shares closed at $2.04 Thursday, down from $83 a decade ago and its recent high of $42 in October 2007. If GM ends up in Chapter 11 bankruptcy-court protection, odds are the common stock will be wiped out. But if it can reorganize out of court, lightening its debt load via some kind of exchange offer, the stock likely will rise.
Some small stockholders stay with their shares, but others got in lately and hope to make a profit from even a small bounce in GM's stock. Amid relative optimism about GM, the stock rose from $1.45 a share on March 6 to $3.62 on March 27. It then dipped after the ouster of GM's chief executive, Rick Wagoner.
Dorothy Donovan, 77, who owns a catering business in Farmingdale, Mich., last year bought 200 shares, and is standing pat, thinking that "eventually, GM will turn around."
Many bondholders also are hanging on in hopes that -- some way, somehow -- their losses will eventually be eased via an exchange offer for their bonds.


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But in the political and economic maelstrom swirling around the car company, they may be disappointed. The bondholders could be forced to swallow deeper losses than the market has delivered. Moreover, if GM files for bankruptcy protection, it almost surely will cease paying interest. Plus, in a bankruptcy, bondholders will have to wait a long time for a settlement. The typical bankruptcy lasts 18 months.
In a few bankruptcies, bondholders emerge ahead. One example is Mirant Corp., a power-generating firm whose fortunes improved while it was in Chapter 11. Mirant gave bondholders a settlement worth more than the bonds had been worth.
However, that's the exception. GM's fortunes are dwindling. The unsecured bondholders -- their paper isn't backed by collateral -- rank lower on the food chain than do other creditors.
"They'll get what's left over, and the pie is shrinking along with GM's sales," says Peter Chapman, president of Bankruptcy Creditors Service Inc., a research house.
Harley VanDeloo, 69, a retired high-tech marketing representative in Thousand Oaks, Calif., bought $20,000 in GM bonds a year ago, now valued at less than $3,000. Says Mr. VanDeloo, "I thought GM was too big to fail."
Write to Larry Light at [email protected]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123940497568709785.html?ru=yahoo&mod=yahoo_hs
 

Imark

Forumer storico
da tanti post che vedo mi sa tanto che non avete resistito ... secondo me avete fatto male

Magari facciamo ancora in tempo a tenerne fuori qualcuno convinto di fare l'affare della vita per non aver capito come va a parare... personalmente sono contento di aver usato tutti i mezzi che potevo per convincere i forumisti ad uscire da GM (ed anche da GMAC) o a non entrarci nanche quanto quotava a 50 o a 40....

In privato ogni tanto un paio di quelli usciti a 70-80, magari con qualche perdita, ma insomma, tollerabile, ancora mi ringrazia... ;) :)
 

Imark

Forumer storico
i98mark, dato che io non riesco a resistere a Ford, pensi che sia nelle stesse condizioni di Gm ?

Chiedo il conforto di Paolo, di Gaudente, di Researcher perché la mia uscita definitiva dai bond Ford è avvenuta nel 2006 e da allora la seguo con la coda dell'occhio, a causa delle troppe incognite nell'investire nei titoli di questa società.

Certamente la sua posizione è migliore di quella di GM: ha rinegoziato i propri accordi con i creditori e lo UAW, così da alleggerire il fardello del debito e da ridurre costo del lavoro e oneri aggiuntivi.

Non ha poi dovuto chiedere soccorso allo Stato USA: spesso si dimentica che se qualcuno presta soldi, occorre poi restituirglieli...

Basterà a guadare le crisi senza dover subire ulteriori ristrutturazioni ? Sinceramente, non te lo so dire...

Certo, se decidi di farlo, considera che si tratta di un investimento altamente speculativo, e dunque regolati di conseguenza... ;)
 

Imark

Forumer storico
Interessante la prospettazione che S&P fa della situazione di Chrysler... direi che anche loro si sono portati avanti con il lavoro con l'ultima rating action, che sostanzialmente assume a presupposto il fallimento del negoziato di Chrysler con Fiat e/o con creditori e sindacato e il conseguente default del produttore, al quale farebbe seguito il suo smembramento.

Chrysler LLC Sr. Secured Term Loan Rtgs Cut On Our View That Company Would Not Emerge Intact From A Bankruptcy

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NEW YORK (Standard & Poor's) April 10, 2009--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services today said it has lowered its issue-level ratings on Chrysler LLC's senior secured first-lien term loan due 2013 to 'CC' (the same as the 'CC' corporate credit rating on Chrysler) from 'CCC'.

The recovery rating was revised to '4' from '1', indicating our view that lenders can expect average (30% to 50%) recovery in the event of a payment default.

The corporate credit rating is unchanged, at 'CC', which reflects our view of the likelihood of default--from either a bankruptcy or a distressed debt exchange.

At the same time, we also lowered the issue rating on Chrysler's senior secured second-lien term loan due 2014 to 'C' (below the corporate credit rating) from 'CC', and the recovery rating on this debt was revised to '6' from '4', indicating our view that lenders can expect negligible (0 to 10%) recovery in the event of a payment default.

"The lowering of our issue ratings reflects lower recovery estimates, given our current view that Chrysler would be unlikely to emerge from bankruptcy as one reorganized entity," said Standard & Poor's recovery analyst Greg Maddock.

"We believe that if the company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, many of its assets and operations would be sold in discrete transactions over time, while other segments may be closed," he continued. (For the complete recovery analysis, please see the recovery report on Chrysler, to be published immediately following the release of this report on RatingsDirect.)

We expect a bankruptcy filing to occur around the end of April or soon thereafter if the company is not successful in reaching an agreement on a partnership with Fiat SpA and concessions with its main labor union and secured lenders, or otherwise satisfying the U.S. Treasury that it has an acceptable viability plan.

Our recovery ratings do not reflect any debtor-in-possession (DIP) financing that could supersede the liens of existing secured lenders and result in a lower recovery value. We did not assume any further government funding in our analysis on either a pre- or post-petition basis.

Additional pre-petition funding does not change the analysis because the senior lenders are secured by essentially all assets. We believe post-petition lending in the form of DIP financing would be more problematic for recoveries because the company has no available assets to secure a DIP facility.

In our view, this suggests that the existing lenders could be superseded in a bankruptcy proceeding and, given the expectation of a liquidation, implies that recovery values would be further impaired as the estate is wound down.

For example, we estimate that recoveries on the $7 billion of secured debt could be 40% (the midpoint of the 30% to 50% range), but a $3 billion superseding DIP could cause the recovery on secured pre-petition debt to be negligible.

The corporate credit rating reflects the prospects for a distressed debt exchange (which we would consider tantamount to a default under our criteria) or a bankruptcy filing. The U.S. Treasury recently extended the deadline for these two possible outcomes until April 30, 2009, while Chrysler and interested parties negotiate
 

paologorgo

Chapter 11
For example, we estimate that recoveries on the $7 billion of secured debt could be 40% (the midpoint of the 30% to 50% range), but a $3 billion superseding DIP could cause the recovery on secured pre-petition debt to be negligible.

E' un modo molto elegante per dire che probabilmente il recovery sarà vicino a 0.

E' impossibile, in caso di bancarotta, che l'azienda possa affrontare l'eventuale ch 11 senza un DIP financing. I soli costi della procedura, di cui non si parla, sarebbero elevatissimi.

Vedremo.
 

paologorgo

Chapter 11
At General Motors (GM), they call it “the 60 days.” That's the window of time President Obama has given America’s biggest automaker to chart a bold new future - or declare bankruptcy.
Obama has set tough conditions that GM must meet by the end of May in order to get up to $25 billion in additional government aid. To show he means business, Obama also fired eight-year CEO Rick Wagoner. The new CEO, Fritz Henderson, must wring unprecedented concessions from unions and creditors, rapidly shrink the company, and convince buyers to stick with GM products. I spoke recently with Susan Docherty, North American Vice President responsible for the Buick, Pontiac, and GMC divisions, about what it’s like working for GM at the most precarious moment in its history. Excerpts:
You’re responsible for some of the “good” brands that GM plans to keep. How are you going about your job these days? Is it a crisis atmosphere, or does it somehow feel like business as usual? There isn’t anyone in our company treating this as business as usual. All of our employees listened to the president’s press conference [on March 30]. If Fritz says he’s giving a press conference, we all stop work and put on the TVs. Then we do a debrief and make sure everybody understands what the message is. We get it: We need to have a restructuring plan that goes faster and deeper.
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How is this affecting your division?
Even though the entire company is restructuring, we still need to be selling Buick, GMC and Pontiac vehicles. My job is to generate revenue for this company. I need to figure out how we get consumers back into showrooms and get rid of what I call the FUD factor: fear, uncertainty, and doubt. Companies going through restructuring can fall off a cliff if they don’t continue to focus on generating revenue.
The irony is, as we’re going through all this, our products have never been better.
Can you tell if the all the negative news has damaged your brands and driven away buyers? It’s too early to see if interest in our brands has dropped off completely from all the news. Obviously the economy is also keeping buyers away. The buyer behavior data come out quarterly, and we don’t have the first quarter’s data yet. But I don’t need to see any data to know that I need to get people back into the showrooms. We know that people need to know us, like us, trust us, and buy us.
Is there an acronym for that? K, L, T, B…. Geez, I don’t know. I’ll have to have a glass of wine and think about that one.
The real wake-up call for us was the Congressional hearings in December. It was very clear from the questions they asked, and also from the questions the press asked, that the perception of our company and our brands was at least a decade old. People don’t know the vehicles we are building today. Before this crisis, we’d talk about the improvements we were making and a lot of people wouldn’t hear us. We have a chance for potential buyers to hear us now. For as difficult as this is, shame on us if we don’t find opportunity in this crisis. It wouldn’t hurt if the general press gave us credit for the great products we’re building.
Well here’s a personal opinion. GM has made a lot of predictions in the past that haven’t come true. Market share gains, profit levels, there are all kinds of examples. As recently as a year ago GM was saying, ‘we need all 8 of our brands,’ while critics were saying you only need 4, and now GM has finally said, ‘okay, we only need 4, or 4.5.’ So in the press we don’t know what to believe. Is 4 brands the right number? A year from now will it only be 3 brands? Well let me say this. Fewer, better, faster, always wins against a multi-brand strategy. In 2005 we had eight Buicks. Now we have three. We got it.
Do you really need GMC and Pontiac if Chevrolet and Cadillac are such strong core brands? Aren’t GMC trucks mostly just copies of Chevy trucks? Chevy and Cadillac are global brands, and there are some consumers in the middle who are not interested in a volume brand like Chevrolet. It’s not for them. There are also customers who can afford a Cadillac but wouldn’t choose a luxury brand either. There is clearly a need for premium offerings above a volume brand but below luxury. So with Buick and GMC, we have products that can meet that consumer need. The architecture of good – better – best works.
As for GMC, all of our GMC products are profitable. Pontiac has nowhere near the margins of GMC. That’s why we need to refocus Pontiac. Fritz has said that every vehicle in our lineup needs to pay its own way and that’s what we intend to do.
Are you doing any contingency planning for a bankruptcy scenario? On March 31 we launched the Total Confidence promotion, which we tested with consumers. We told them, if you lose your job, we’ll cover 9 months of payments [up to $500 per month], and by the way we’ll cover your warranty. And instead of saying ‘what’s the catch,’ like they usually do, they said, ‘oh really?’ They loved that.
But that’s the government covering the warranty, right? Right, but we’ve added it to Total Confidence. So it says, you have a “fully backed” 5-year/100,000 mile powertrain warranty. “Fully backed” means backed by the government.
Are you involved at all in the dealings with the government? I had tickets for my husband and I to go the Final Four. We have a 7 am meeting with [marketing chief] Mark LaNeve every other morning, and on the day we were supposed to leave for the Final Four, we got a request from the team in Washington that we needed to pull together a bunch of information for the President’s task force. By 8 am, I called my husband and said, ‘you need to find a friend to go with you.’ We worked for about 24 hours pulling all that together. That was one of several sleepless nights for my whole team.
This event is more than life-changing. There’s not anybody in the company who’s unaffected by this. We all know how serious this is.
What was your reaction when Rick Wagoner resigned? I was at the Detroit opera with my daughter and husband that Sunday afternoon, and I got a message on my handheld from Mark LaNeve saying the news is reporting that Rick is leaving the company. And I looked at my daughter and my husband and said, ‘I have to go.’ For many people at the company, the only CEO they’ve ever known is Rick Wagoner. It was a very emotional moment for the entire team.
The next communication came the next morning from President Obama at 11:00 in the morning on March 30. He clearly articulated what he wanted from us. We heard him when he said we need to go deeper and faster and we need a new report in 60 days. Then Fritz Henderson held his press conference, and he said that what we’ve provided is not good enough. We got together and made sure we communicated all this to everybody on our team. Then right after that we launched Total Confidence. I don’t think it even sunk in until later in the week that Rick was no longer with the company.
That week at GM was one of the weeks everybody who works here will remember. You know how certain things happen, and you always remember where you were when you first learned about it? That’s how it felt. Everybody at GM is going to remember where they were when they learned that Rick Wagoner was asked to resign.


http://seekingalpha.com/article/130504-gm-an-inside-look
 

paologorgo

Chapter 11
Chiedo il conforto di Paolo, di Gaudente, di Researcher perché la mia uscita definitiva dai bond Ford è avvenuta nel 2006 e da allora la seguo con la coda dell'occhio, a causa delle troppe incognite nell'investire nei titoli di questa società.

Credo che l'opinione più interessante potrebbe essere quella di Gaudente, che i bilanci li sa leggere davvero bene. Io non ho fatto grandi analisi, se non quella che è la messa meglio delle 3 di Detroit, dovrebbe guadagnare in futuro in termini di market share negli USA (comunque vada la GM che ne uscirà sarà ridimensionata nei volumi...) e a questo punto, disinnescato il problema fallimento fornitori dall'operazione di supporto del Governo, non so se lo scenario del fallimento a catena delle 3 sia realistico, anche se è sempre presente come possibilità...

Io sono alla finestra, per il momento... per quello che può valere...
 

Researcher

Stop Loss? No, Thanks!!!
Posso aggiungere qualche numero sul profilo delle scadenze dei crediti e dei debiti di Ford Motor Credit, che è quella che ha il maggior numero di bond in giro, rispetto a Ford Motor....anche acquistabili da retail.

Interessante vedere come il volume delle scadene dei debiti, in valore assoluto, eccede sempre quello dei crediti, ma fino al 2010 la differenza è contenuta....dal 2011 la forbice si amplia decisamente....

Con i 15 billion di liquidità, possono superare il 2009, anche bruciando cassa a ritmi sostenuti, ma dal 2010, se nn cambia musica e non riprendono ad essere redditizi, non faranno una bella fine.......

Interessante la decisione di rinegoziare le lunghe scadenze di Ford Motor

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