Obbligazioni societarie GM, Ford, Chrysler: il 3D dell'automotive USA

[paologorgo]

Sources say Chrysler's bondholders are now willing to reduce the principal on their loans by 46%, to $3.75B, in exchange for a 40% stake in the new company. (previously I, II)

Some of GM's (GM) $28B bondholders - specifically those who own credit-default swaps - aren't likely to be scared into cutting a deal with the threat of bankruptcy. In fact, they relish the possibility.

S.A.

 

[paologorgo]

questo post può sembrare OT, nel 3d dei produttori automobilistici USA, e forse lo è, ma secondo me introduce una riflessione importante: gli "operai", in Nord America, stanno scomparendo da anni... da un posto di lavoro ogni quattro, ad uno ogni undici oggi..


Industrial production is also one of the main variables used by the NBER to determine recessions:

A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.
​

MP: But is industrial production still as relevant as an economic indicator as it used to be? Probably not, since industrial production is a measure of manufacturing output. Manufacturing jobs as a percent of total payroll employment have declined significantly from 26.5% in 1969 (more than 1 out of every 4 jobs was in manufacturing) to the lowest-ever level of only 9.25% (about 1 in 11 jobs is in manufacturing) in March 2009 (see chart above).
Since fewer than 10% of all U.S. jobs are now in the manufacturing sector, should we continue to rely on industrial production as a key economic variable, when the manufacturing share of overall employment continues to decline to record low levels?Probably not. While it might have made sense to rely on industrial production as a key economic indicator in the 1960s and the 1970s during the Machine Age, it probably doesn't make sense any longer in the Information Age.

To replace or supplement industrial production, what about some alternative Information Age measure of economic activity that might include web traffic, web pages, internet connections, software sales, online retailing activity, etc.?

http://seekingalpha.com/article/133...ate-economic-indicator-in-the-information-age

 

[paologorgo]

In an 8-K released on Friday, GM announced that it has liquidated two key employee benefit plans (the Savings-Stock Purchase Program and the Personal Savings Plan). The plan custodian State Street started selling the plan assets, consisting entirely of GM stock, on March 31 and reinvesting proceeds into fixed-income investments and money market funds. The plan liquidation is permitted if State Street determines one (or both) of the following:

"(A) there is a serious question concerning General Motors Corporation’s (“GM” or the “Company”) short–term viability as a going concern without resorting to bankruptcy proceedings; OR (B) there is no possibility in the short-term of recouping any substantial proceeds from the sale of stock in bankruptcy proceedings."
​

The liquidation is expected to have been completed by the end of business day on Friday, which likely explains the 8-K hitting SEC after market close. Looks like yet another slap in the face of GM employees, not to mention a glowing endorsement of the automaker's viability.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/133179-gm-liquidates-two-employee-benefit-plans

 

[Imark]

E' come con lo sciame sismico ... sono notizie che oramai segnalano che l'evento atteso sarà un fatto di pochi giorni, forse una o due settimane...

 

[stockuccio]

non ce la faccio più, sono sfinito ... forse oggi si vede la luce in fondo al tunnel ... un lumino funebre ? http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/04/gm-to-announce-new-restructuring-plan.html

 

[paologorgo]

un punto di vista diverso, riporto solo la parte relativa a GM e Chrysler:

Similarly, I am skeptical of the wisdom of helping Fiat buy Chrysler when it is also looking to buy Opel. Sergio Marchionne, Fiat’s CEO, has openly stated that the company is looking to increase production volume and break into the US market. In fact, given Chrysler’s persistent inability to make cars profitably (it has failed to do so as a standalone public company, a unit of DaimlerChrysler, and a privately owned entity), the company’s main value lies in its U.S. dealer network. At the same time, Opel has designed several automobiles that had potential with the American public, such as the Sky roadster and Aura sedan. According to GM’s 10K, Opel (which accounts for the bulk of the company’s European operations) actually had an increase in both total sales and revenue from 2006 to 2007. Basically, the unit seems to be quite capable of functioning as a stand-alone, profitable car company. There is thus a real possibility that if Fiat goes through with both the Chrysler and Opel acquisitions, it will end up selling Opels at Chrysler dealerships across America, where they would compete with whatever remains of the GM portfolio.
I don’t support protectionist trade policies, but having US government pay for the above outcome seems like an unambiguously bad idea for everyone on this side of the Atlantic. To avoid the wealth transfer, Treasury could condition the promised $6 billion loan on Fiat’s promise to avoid certain follow-on acquisitions, but then the Chrysler sale may fall through altogether, exposing the fundamental instability of the Obama auto rescue plan.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/133...pproach-to-its-industrial-sector?source=yahoo

 

[paologorgo]

At 9:00am, GM (GM) will announce its third business plan of the last four months. GM will likely discuss eliminating its Pontiac brand, plans to reduce employees and plants, and efforts to accelerate cuts by as much as four years. GM +6.5% premarket.


The briefing this morning will include Henderson, Chief Financial Officer Ray Young and other executives, the company said. GM will also hold a conference call with analysts at 12:30 p.m. New York time.

 

[Imark]

At 9:00am, GM (GM) will announce its third business plan of the last four months. GM will likely discuss eliminating its Pontiac brand, plans to reduce employees and plants, and efforts to accelerate cuts by as much as four years. GM +6.5% premarket.


The briefing this morning will include Henderson, Chief Financial Officer Ray Young and other executives, the company said. GM will also hold a conference call with analysts at 12:30 p.m. New York time.

E' appena iniziata la press conference... scusate, non mi ero accorto , mi è partita l'ultima con Rick...

http://gmtv.feedroom.com/?fr_story=FRdamp354355

 

[paologorgo]

Dear GM Noteholder:
GM has developed a restructuring plan that we believe offers the best path for the future success of our company. As a key component of this plan, we are making an offer to you to exchange GM notes you own today for GM common stock.
We are soliciting your support for our exchange offers, which will allow GM to restructure out of bankruptcy court. The exchange offers are described in detail in the enclosed prospectus, which we encourage you to read fully.
The Exchange Offers
We are offering to issue 225 shares of GM common stock for each $1,000 principal amount of GM notes that you own and to pay to you in cash for all accrued but unpaid interest on your GM notes to the settlement date of the exchange offers.
We believe there are advantages to restructuring GM out of court through the exchange offers. We believe that the successful consummation of the exchange offers would, among other things:

•

enable us to continue operating our business without the negative impact that a bankruptcy could have on our relationships with our customers, employees, suppliers, dealers and others; ​

•

reduce the risk of a potentially precipitous decline in our revenues in a bankruptcy; and ​

•

allow us to complete our restructuring in less time and with less risk than any bankruptcy alternatives. ​

FOR THE EXCHANGE OFFERS TO BE SUCCESSFUL, WE NEED TO SATISFY SEVERAL CONDITIONS INCLUDING RECEIVING THE APPROVAL OF THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY, WHICH WE BELIEVE WILL REQUIRE, AMONG OTHER THINGS, TENDERS FROM APPROXIMATELY 90% OF THE OUTSTANDING GM NOTES ACROSS ALL SERIES.

 

[Imark]

Dear GM Noteholder:
GM has developed a restructuring plan that we believe offers the best path for the future success of our company. As a key component of this plan, we are making an offer to you to exchange GM notes you own today for GM common stock.
We are soliciting your support for our exchange offers, which will allow GM to restructure out of bankruptcy court. The exchange offers are described in detail in the enclosed prospectus, which we encourage you to read fully.
The Exchange Offers
We are offering to issue 225 shares of GM common stock for each $1,000 principal amount of GM notes that you own and to pay to you in cash for all accrued but unpaid interest on your GM notes to the settlement date of the exchange offers.
We believe there are advantages to restructuring GM out of court through the exchange offers. We believe that the successful consummation of the exchange offers would, among other things:

​

....


FOR THE EXCHANGE OFFERS TO BE SUCCESSFUL, WE NEED TO SATISFY SEVERAL CONDITIONS INCLUDING RECEIVING THE APPROVAL OF THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY, WHICH WE BELIEVE WILL REQUIRE, AMONG OTHER THINGS, TENDERS FROM APPROXIMATELY 90% OF THE OUTSTANDING GM NOTES ACROSS ALL SERIES.

Ci vogliono anche i bond di Shark, di Lodovan e del Generale Max... altrimenti si rischia di non centrare l'obiettivo...