Portafogli e Strategie (investimento) Goodbye, Great Bond Bull Market?

[darkog]

Tassi ancora in discesa vedo.. Lo strumento che ho acquistato ieri perde ancora quasi 2 punti percentuali..

Sempre più sui minimi di periodo..

Sto pensando un secondo ingresso, anche se ho paura di farmi male..

 

[ALTOPDELGLAM]

Giro di boa

 

[darkog]

U.S. 10-Year Bond Yield.. 2,48

 

[apaci2]

Giro di boa

Qualcosa di pesante sta accadendo...

Per non parlare della tassa retroattiva Greca

P.S. scialuppe in mare

 

[9/15]

Caporetto!
GML spara prima che mi uccidano, pls!

 

[9/15]

La rottura dei livelli grafici ha portato tanti professional che erano short (ed erano tanti) a ricoprirsi, quindi la reazione è amplificata...vediamo dove si ferma il coltello.
Per ora è nella mia grassa pancia, vi saprò dire.

 

[apaci2]

L'idea mi sembra parecchio intelligente

Draghi Urged to Stop Being Shy and Purchase Bailout Bonds - Bloomberg

 

[negusneg]

La rottura dei livelli grafici ha portato tanti professional che erano short (ed erano tanti) a ricoprirsi, quindi la reazione è amplificata...vediamo dove si ferma il coltello.
Per ora è nella mia grassa pancia, vi saprò dire.

A quanto pare non sei solo...

Stubborn Bond Bears Double Down on Money-Losing Wager

By Lisa Abramowicz - May 15, 2014

These bond bears just won’t go away.
Some even appear to be doubling down as their losses mount.
Exhibit A: As the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) fund plunged 21.6 percent this year, investors have responded by plowing $525.3 million into the exchange-traded fund, which uses leverage and derivatives.
Exhibit B: Investors have boosted short wagers on Treasuries using futures contracts trading on the Chicago Board of Trade to 56 percent more than their five-year average. A few weeks ago, there were the most since March 2008.
Bears are sticking to their call that bond prices are going to collapse even as recent evidence points to the opposite: long-dated U.S. Treasuries have gained 11.9 percent this year, outperforming stocks and junk bonds. The short trade remains popular with individuals and professional speculators determined they will profit as the Federal Reserve pulls back on monetary stimulus.
“The bond bear ‘tourists’ have proven remarkably resilient in recent weeks,” Peter Tchir, head of macro strategy at Brean Capital LLC wrote in a note today.“I had expected to see bonds bears flushed out of the market on the last move, but they seemed stubborn, and I am not convinced that will change.”

Staying Solvent

There’s no one obvious reason why Treasury bonds keep rallying. Some analysts blame the weather. Others point out that Americans are getting old, risk-averse and more wed to the safety of bonds. It also could be unrest in Ukraine or China’s slowing economy or even speculation that the European Central Bank will start its own version of quantitative easing -- take your pick.
Whatever the reason, yields on 10-year Treasuries have plunged to 2.48 percent, the lowest since July, as their prices have soared. Yields on 30-year Treasuries have dropped to 3.32 percent from 3.97 percent at the end of December, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader prices.
The consensus remains that the rally can’t possibly go on, and that bond yields have to go up. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg still expect 10-year Treasury yields to rise 0.75 percentage point during the next seven months, to 3.23 percent at year-end.
There were 1.114 million short contracts using Treasury futures that were trading on the Chicago Board of Trade on May 2, compared with a five-year average of 713,000. There were 1.194 million such contracts on April 18, the most in six years, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.
The question for all you bears is whether John Maynard Keynes’s famous observation will yet again be proven correct: The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
To contact the reporter on this story: Lisa Abramowicz in New York at [email protected]
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Shannon D. Harrington at [email protected] Caroline Salas Gage

 

[GiveMeLeverage]

A quanto pare non sei solo...

Stubborn Bond Bears Double Down on Money-Losing Wager

[..]

Articolo analogo:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/gundlach-could-verge-one-biggest-190053082.html

DoubleLine Funds' Jeffrey Gundlach warns that we may be on the edge of a big bond market rally that could see yields tanking.
"If we go down [more] on Treasury yields, we will see one of the biggest short-covering scrambles of all time," said Gundlach on Wednesday in San Diego. This quote is being reported by FA Mag's Dan Jamieson from the Altegris Investments strategic investment conference.
Coming into 2014, almost no one predicted the 10-year Treasury yield would tumble to the levels we're seeing today.
But bond fund manager Jeff Gundlach did.
During a public webcast on Jan. 14, when the 10-year yield was at around 3.0% and Wall Street said it would climb to 3.4%, Gundlach predicted that it could fall as low as 2.5% in the near-term.
Today, the 10-year yield fell through 2.5% and got as low as 2.4716%.
Gundlach isn't the only one warning of a short squeeze in the bond market.
"10y short interest futures (CFTC) data showing a very crowded short," said Stifel Nicolaus' Dave Lutz. "The crowd is rarely right, and now the squeeze is on."
Should things intensify, Gundlach's already contrarian prediction may not have been contrarian enough.
"If for some reason someone has to cover these shorts, you could actually see the low yields of 2012 get taken out," said Gundlach.

 

[apaci2]

Sell Italian Bonds But US Treasury Bulls Beware, Warns BofA | Zero Hedge

Addirittura oggi c'è spazio anche per noi nella AT di BofaML