Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato - Cap. 1

[Grisù]

Per quello che vale l'opinione del ministro delle finanze russo:

SPIEF UPDATE:Russia Expects Greece To Fall Short On Obligations

Markets are prepared to accept a default on Greek debt, Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said Saturday, even as international financial organizations said the euro zone's weakest member was on track in reforming its economy.Kudrin also said he doubted the U.S. government's ability to make necessary cuts in its budget deficit.
Greece will probably have to restructure part of its government debt, a process that may be "unpleasant" for the country, Kudrin told a panel on sovereign debt at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum.
"Any restructuring of Greek debt will be acceptable to markets, as long as it's not deep and does not involve confiscation of assets," said Kudrin, one of the longest standing members of Putin's government. "You can call it a mini- default--not exactly a default in the fullest sense of the word."

Russia holds some 40% of its $400 million-plus reserves--the world's third largest--in euros, and the ruble fell by as much as 9.5% since May as European debt woes roiled markets. The country was faced with its first budget deficit in nearly a decade last year as the financial crisis ended an eight year-long oil- boom, and hopes to again balance its budget by 2015.
Kudrin praised European governments and central banks for consolidating their economic policy to fight the crisis and "prevent the situation from deteriorating."
"I believe in Europe, I believe in the euro," Kudrin said.
The European Union, International Monetary Fund and European Central Bank provided Greece with a three-year, 110-billion euro loan in May, but demanded that the country hike taxes and cut wages and pensions to bring its budget deficit from 13.6% of gross domestic product in 2009 to 8.1% of GDP this year. Representatives of the three financial institutions said this week that Greece was on track with the reforms.
Russia's low sovereign debt and large foreign reserves have given the country's foreign bonds--which it issued in April for the first time in 12 years--a lower yield than those of Greece or other troubled Eurozone countries like Spain or Portugal.
The average monthly spread between Greek and German 10-year bond yields was above 6% on Friday.
Not all of the members of the panel agreed with Kudrin, however.
"We have a program that does not contemplate any restructuring," said John Lipsky, deputy managing director of the IMF.

​

 

[Grisù]

A parte le agenzie pilotate e i politici inutili alcuni dati macro potrebbero dare l'idea che la situazione sia in lenta stabilizzazione. Vedremo i dati dei mesi successivi anche se gli attacchi fuori dall'area euro non credo siano terminati.

Greece’s April New Orders Index In Industry Up 4.9%

The New Orders Index in Industry (both domestic and non-domestic market) in April 2010 as compared to April 2009 recorded a rise of 4.9%, the national statistics service said Friday.
A year earlier, the annual rate of change of the New Orders in Industry was –34.5%.
The average New Orders Index in Industry for the 12-month period May 2009 – April 2010, as compared to the 12-month period May 2008 – April 2009, fell by 17.5%.
A year earlier, the corresponding average rate of change of the New Orders Index in Industry was –11.7%.

 

[Grisù]

Francamente non è il solo....

E. Nielsen: Moody’s Decision On Greece Puzzles

Goldman Sachs Economist Erik Nielsen said he was puzzled by Moody’s decision to cut Greek debt by four notches.
“[Moody’s decision] has no impact on Greek Government Bonds for the ECB, as the central bank has lifted –until further notice-the minimum requirements” for Greece’s sovereign debt, he wrote in an internal e-mail soon after the downgrade was announced.
“As it frequently happens until today, while I am rarely surprised by the direction of the changes in the ratings, I often question the timing and what triggers their decision. The both apply fully in this case.”

 

[Grisù]

Analisi sui bond greci nel mese di maggio, interessante il dato sui volumi.

GGB Yields Drop In May

Greek government bond yields fell significantly On the Greek electronic secondary securities market (HDAT), during May with the exception of the 15-year and 30-year tenors, Bank of Greece said.

The biggest decline was recorded in the 3-year benchmark yield that plunged by 204 bps to 7.80% at the end of May, followed by the 10-year benchmark that declined by 118 bps to 7.74%. On the contrary the 15-year and the 30-year benchmark bond yields rose respectively by 59 bps, to 8.53%, and 124 bps, to 8.25% at the end of May.

As a result, the yield curve resumed its positive slope, with the difference between the 30- and the 3-year yields reaching 45 bps at the end of May, compared to -283 bps at the end of April. In addition, the average monthly spread between the Greek and the German 10-year bond yields widened to 514 in May from 474 bps in April.

As for government benchmark bond prices, the 3-year bond price rose to 91.80 at the end of May from 86.72 at the end of April, the 10-year bond price rose to 89.70 from 82.50 while the 30-year bond price fell to 59.75 from 70.00.

Trading volume on HDAT in May declined significantly to EUR 1.4 billion worth of transactions, compared to EUR 10.6 billion in April and EUR 20.2 billion in May 2009. The daily average turnover was EUR 69.7 million compared with EUR 529 million during the previous month. Of the 1,040 orders executed on HDAT, 59.3% were “sell” orders and 40.7% “buy” orders.

Government bond prices rose and yields fell in international markets during the month of May, except for the Italian and Spanish markets, where government bond prices recorded losses. Overall sentiment in the relevant market improved after the announcement on May 9 and 10 by the European governments and the European Central Bank (ECB), respectively, of a package of extraordinary measures in order to enhance financial stability. These included interventions by the ECB in the euro area securities markets to ensure depth and liquidity in market segments considered to be dysfunctional. In addition, the ongoing uncertainty about the fiscal adjustments in Europe and its impact on economic growth, shifted demand towards highly rated sovereign debt whose prices recorded gains.

 

[Grisù]

Diciamo che sono titoli spazzatura a giorni alterni......

Moody's See Risk of Greek Default At 7% Over 5-Yrs

ATHENS (Dow Jones) - Moody's considers that under its base-case scenario the risk of a Greek default is about 7% over the next five years, according to a report Saturday in local newspaper Isotimia.
Earlier this week Moody's cut Greece four notches to junk grade, the second major rating agency to do so this year.

"But under our base-case scenario which we consider fairly likely, we sees Greece implementing its program effectively as demanded, so that its debt to gross domestic product stabilizes at 150%," Moody's analyst Sarah Carlson said to the weekend financial paper.

Greece has agreed to impliment an austerity and reform program in exchange for a EUR110 billion bailout package from the International Monetary Fund and the European Union.
But Greek 10 year bond spreads over the German bund-- an indicator of risk perception- remain persistently high at about 670 basis points, suggesting that the markets consider that a risk of default on debt and bankruptcy is still considerable.

 

[Zorba]

Analisi sui bond greci nel mese di maggio, interessante il dato sui volumi.

GGB Yields Drop In May

Greek government bond yields fell significantly On the Greek electronic secondary securities market (HDAT), during May with the exception of the 15-year and 30-year tenors, Bank of Greece said.

The biggest decline was recorded in the 3-year benchmark yield that plunged by 204 bps to 7.80% at the end of May, followed by the 10-year benchmark that declined by 118 bps to 7.74%. On the contrary the 15-year and the 30-year benchmark bond yields rose respectively by 59 bps, to 8.53%, and 124 bps, to 8.25% at the end of May.

As a result, the yield curve resumed its positive slope, with the difference between the 30- and the 3-year yields reaching 45 bps at the end of May, compared to -283 bps at the end of April. In addition, the average monthly spread between the Greek and the German 10-year bond yields widened to 514 in May from 474 bps in April.

As for government benchmark bond prices, the 3-year bond price rose to 91.80 at the end of May from 86.72 at the end of April, the 10-year bond price rose to 89.70 from 82.50 while the 30-year bond price fell to 59.75 from 70.00.

Trading volume on HDAT in May declined significantly to EUR 1.4 billion worth of transactions, compared to EUR 10.6 billion in April and EUR 20.2 billion in May 2009. The daily average turnover was EUR 69.7 million compared with EUR 529 million during the previous month. Of the 1,040 orders executed on HDAT, 59.3% were “sell” orders and 40.7% “buy” orders.

Government bond prices rose and yields fell in international markets during the month of May, except for the Italian and Spanish markets, where government bond prices recorded losses. Overall sentiment in the relevant market improved after the announcement on May 9 and 10 by the European governments and the European Central Bank (ECB), respectively, of a package of extraordinary measures in order to enhance financial stability. These included interventions by the ECB in the euro area securities markets to ensure depth and liquidity in market segments considered to be dysfunctional. In addition, the ongoing uncertainty about the fiscal adjustments in Europe and its impact on economic growth, shifted demand towards highly rated sovereign debt whose prices recorded gains.

Grazie Grisù.

A me sembra davvero difficile trovare una logica negli attuali prezzi dei bond greci. Tolti i bond che scadono a 3 anni o giù di lì (l'arco temporale coperto dagli aiuti), per gli altri non capisco i disallineamenti che ci sono: il 2018 è in area 70, il 2024 è in area 60 e il 2040 in area 50...
Se la Grecia defaulta o ristruttura lo sapremo nel giro di pochi anni, per cui tutte le scadenze medio/lunghe verrebbero rasoiate allo stesso modo.

Visto che ormai la Grecia è trattata come un distressed, forse può valere la pena valutare la convenienza di swappare sui titoli che costano meno. In caso di default/ristrutturazione, credo che a parità di seniority, conti solo la % di recovery sul nominale (indipendentemente dal tasso e scadenza). Forse Imark e Gaudente potrebbero aiutarci in questa analisi.

Scusate, con questo non voglio dire che la Greccia debba defaultare/ristrutturare, ma visto che ormai prezza a livelli compatibili con quegli scenari, magari non sarebbe male iniziare a ragionare come fanno i Fondi che investono in HY e/o distressed.

 

[Gaudente]

Forse Imark e Gaudente potrebbero aiutarci in questa analisi.

Senza alcuna esitazione, inflation linked 2025.
Magari non rendera' il 14% a scadenza come da mio calcolo approssimativo, ma il confronto con il 2040 e' senz'altro semplicissimo:
il 2025 quota 48, contro 52 del 2040
ipotizzando un'inflazione UE media del 2% , la cedola del 2,9% e' maggiore di quella al 4,6% pagata dal 2040
il guadagno in conto capitale tra il rimborso a 100 ed il prezzo di acquisto oltre ad essere maggiore in valore assoluto e' spalmato su soli 15 anni anziche' 30 e quindi corrisponde ad un maggiore rendimento.
A mio avviso la svendita del 2025 e' dovuta al fatto che si teme che in caso di default la maggiorazione finora maturata (e che bisogna pagare all'acquisto) non venga riconosciuta e si partecipi alla ristrutturazione con il solo valore nominale di partenza. Mi sembra pero' un timore assurdo, persino la Parmalat quando ha fatto crack ha riconosciuto il suo lussurioso riparto al 6% ai vari bond in ragione non solo del valore nominale ma anche del rateo maturato , quindi non vedo come la Grecia possa arrivare a ripudiare un coefficiente di rivalutazione.

Oh, intendiamoci, quanto sopra e' valido solo per chi non ritiene il default greco una certezza , io il 2025 non me lo compro neanche a 48

 

[ferdo]

Senza alcuna esitazione, inflation linked 2025.
Magari non rendera' il 14% a scadenza come da mio calcolo approssimativo, ma il confronto con il 2040 e' senz'altro semplicissimo:
il 2025 quota 48, contro 52 del 2040
ipotizzando un'inflazione UE media del 2% , la cedola del 2,9% e' maggiore di quella al 4,6% pagata dal 2040
il guadagno in conto capitale tra il rimborso a 100 ed il prezzo di acquisto oltre ad essere maggiore in valore assoluto e' spalmato su soli 15 anni anziche' 30 e quindi corrisponde ad un maggiore rendimento.
A mio avviso la svendita del 2025 e' dovuta al fatto che si teme che in caso di default la maggiorazione finora maturata (e che bisogna pagare all'acquisto) non venga riconosciuta e si partecipi alla ristrutturazione con il solo valore nominale di partenza. Mi sembra pero' un timore assurdo, persino la Parmalat quando ha fatto crack ha riconosciuto il suo lussurioso riparto al 6% ai vari bond in ragione non solo del valore nominale ma anche del rateo maturato , quindi non vedo come la Grecia possa arrivare a ripudiare un coefficiente di rivalutazione.

Oh, intendiamoci, quanto sopra e' valido solo per chi non ritiene il default greco una certezza , io il 2025 non me lo compro neanche a 48

a 49 senza inflazione di qui al 2025 (!!!) fa un 8,50% netto a rimborso

 

[Alobar]

Senza alcuna esitazione, inflation linked 2025.
(...)
A mio avviso la svendita del 2025 e' dovuta al fatto che si teme che in caso di default la maggiorazione finora maturata (e che bisogna pagare all'acquisto) non venga riconosciuta e si partecipi alla ristrutturazione con il solo valore nominale di partenza.
(...)
Oh, intendiamoci, quanto sopra e' valido solo per chi non ritiene il default greco una certezza , io il 2025 non me lo compro neanche a 48

Concordo con l'analisi. Io purtroppo ho proprio il 2025 e quindi non saprei dove switchare... Ritengo che la svendita possa dipendere anche dal fatto che, in virtù dell'indicizzazione all'inflazione, si tratta di un titolo presente nei portafogli di fondi

 

[Brisico]

Beato colui che ha liquidità...E' ora di comprare..!!!