ANALYSIS-Papandreou may reshuffle cabinet but won't rock boat
Thursday September 02, 2010 08:44:10 PM GMT
* Municipal elections to trigger government changes
* Reshuffle not expected to affect key ministries
* Business demands stability, public wants changes
By Dina Kyriakidou ATHENS, Sept 2 (Reuters) - Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou is likely to reshuffle his cabinet in coming days to free up candidates for local elections but he won't risk making major changes to his team in the midst of a debt crisis.
Municipal elections across the country scheduled for Nov. 7 will force cabinet changes, as deputy ministers running for local office must be replaced. The Greek press is speculating a wider reshuffle may be on the cards.
But government officials and analysts say Papandreou won't want to disrupt the work going on to implement austerity measures agreed under a 110-billion euro, IMF/EU package aimed at rescuing Greece from bankruptcy.
"I don't see any dramatic changes," said Costas Ifantis, a political scientist at the University of Athens. "Continuity is crucial at this period."
The appointments may come as soon as Sunday, when the ruling Socialist PASOK party is due to announce its candidates for mayors and local governors. Analysts say Papandreou may want to name their replacements before he delivers his annual economic speech in the northern city of Thessaloniki on Sept. 11.
"Inevitably, some minor changes will take place as a result of the municipal election," a government official said on condition of anonymity.
PULLED IN DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS
Papandreou has been criticised for dragging his feet after revealing the budget deficit he inherited from the previous conservative government was more than two times bigger than expected, triggering a crisis of confidence on sovereign debt markets that shook the euro zone.
After plunging into its first recession in 16 years, Greece's economy is expected to shrink 4 percent this year, with salary cuts and tax hikes stifling consumption. Public investment has been cut and is barely trickling in.
Papandreou might be tempted to change some senior minister to push reforms and growth programmes, which are seen lagging. Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou is almost certain to stay but Economy Minister Louka Katseli is on riskier ground.
Papandreou is being pulled in two different directions, with pressure from the business world to stay the course countered by opinion polls showing the public wants change.
Greek retailers, who are suffering the effects of an austerity induced recession, are among those who have asked Papandreou not to make dramatic changes in key ministries.
"We oppose changes at ministries which will cause delays in the programme to boost small- and medium-business activity," said Vassilis Korkidis, head of the National Federation of Greek Merchants after meeting the Finance, Economy and Labour Ministers on Tuesday.
"The time for exploring a way out of the crisis is over and we must move to a period of hope and prospects," he said.
PUBLIC ANGER
But the general public, whose anger at tough austerity measures has spilled to the streets with protests and deadly riots this year, would prefer a change, opinion polls show. According to a GPO polling agency survey on Tuesday, 60 percent want Papandreou to reshuffle his government, now a mix of older socialist party stalwarts and young blood, including some who have never held public office.
But Papandreou still enjoys more support than the opposition leader and most Greeks feel the measures, which are already producing results in cutting deficits, are necessary.
"Disappointment and pessimism about how things are going in the country and its prospects dominate the majority of Greek society. There is discontent over the impact of policies but there is also a dominant view that there are no alternatives," said Takis Theodorikakos, GPO president.
The government is anxious to avoid social unrest as the effects of austerity really start to sink in after the summer. Many analysts predict anger will grow as people return from their holidays to face a tough winter.
Unions have already planned action, including at Thessaloniki, a traditional venue for protests against economic policies even during Greece's golden years when the economy was growing by 4 percent.
All eyes will be on Papandreou to see if he will relax some of the harsher measures to please the public, risking the wrath of international lenders and threatening approval of the next loan installment, due to be reviewed in October.
"There is no room for handouts and everyone understands that. What everyone is expecting is a growth policy for next year," Ifantis said. (Additional reporting by Renee Maltezou; Editing by Sonya Hepinstall)