ECB rift spices up debate on bond buys
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Christiaan Hetzner,Marc Jones,Sakari Suoninen FRANKFURT - 19.10.2010
[FONT="]A rift between senior European Central Bank policymakers over how to nurse the euro zone economy back to health risks unnerving investors and could play a role in determining who becomes the bank's next boss, analysts say.[/FONT]
[FONT="]ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet on Monday slapped down policy hawk Axel Weber for saying last week that buying bonds issued by euro zone periphery nations like Greece had not helped calm debt market tensions and should be "phased out permanently". [/FONT]
[FONT="]Weber's intervention raised unwelcome questions over the future direction of ECB policy, with some saying the man heavily tipped to replace Trichet when the Frenchman steps down in October now looked increasingly isolated within the ECB, while others said he had enhanced his credentials as a guardian of price stability.[/FONT]
[FONT="]"Weber's motivation is entirely unclear to me. Were the ECB to tell the markets today that it would stop buying euro zone sovereign bonds, tomorrow that would be a near catastrophe," said Michael Rottmann, Head of Interest and Currency Strategy at UniCredit.[/FONT]
[FONT="]"Spread volatility would increase enormously, if the strongest and in times of stress only purchaser of periphery sovereign debt were to leave the market."[/FONT]
[FONT="]Confidence that the worst of the euro zone crisis may be over has encouraged investors to wade back into the market, bidding up prices in recent weeks for Greek, Irish, and Portuguese sovereign bonds and effectively doing the ECB's job for it.[/FONT]
[FONT="]"On the surface, Weber doesn't seem to be doing himself or the Governing Council any favours, since it was ultimately the Securities Market Programme (SMP) that halted a vicious downward spiral in the euro earlier in the year," wrote Stephen Gallo, head of Market Analysis at Schneider Foreign Exchange.[/FONT]
[FONT="]But central banks need their hardliners "(to) provide markets and households with clues that (they) ... haven't completely `dropped the ball' on being anchors of price stability.[/FONT]
[FONT="]"We don't chastise the BoE and Fed for Sentance and Hoenig, so why should we chastise the ECB for Weber?"[/FONT]
[FONT="]CLOSING THE STABLE DOOR?[/FONT]
[FONT="]Some argue the debate has in any case lost its relevance, given that the ECB spent precisely nothing to prop up demand last week -- for the first time since the 63.5 billion euro bond buying programme began. [/FONT]
[FONT="]"Fund managers are reducing their short positions on the periphery. It started with Greece in mid-September, then Ireland began to perform once the bad news on its banking system became public. We have seen some pretty heavy buying of Portugal's debt last week," said ING interest rate strategist Padhraic Garvey.[/FONT]
[FONT="]But market confidence will be tested again on Tuesday when Portugal's leading opposition party, the centre-right Social Democrats (PSD), meets to decide whether to back the government's austerity plans for 2011. [/FONT]
[FONT="]At worst, any budget setback paired with open dissent in the ECB could embolden investors to launch a speculative attack on EU sovereign bond markets that could ruin the still fragile confidence in Greek, Irish and Portuguese creditworthiness.[/FONT]
[FONT="]"You cannot rule that out. Whenever a central bank begins to buy back sovereign debt, it always exposes itself to such a flank," said Barclays Capital economist Thorsten Polleit.[/FONT]
[FONT="]Whether Bundesbank head Weber's vocal dissent harms his chance of inheriting the monetary throne of the ECB in November -- as more and more analysts believe -- is of secondary importance, Polleit argues.[/FONT]
[FONT="]"More than anything, Weber is contributing constructively to an issue that has not received enough attention: the presently incalculable risks associated with the current global policy of monetizing debt. He is sensitizing the public to a much-needed debate that has fallen by the wayside." he said.[/FONT]
[FONT="]PRAISE FOR DRAGHI?[/FONT]
[FONT="]Italian media jumped on praise for Italy from Trichet at the weekend as a possible endorsement of the bank's head Mario Draghi, viewed as Weber's main rival.[/FONT]
[FONT="]But one analyst said it would be unwise to read too much into Trichet's observation that the Bank of Italy had been "vigilant in exerting surveillance" during the financial crisis.[/FONT]
[FONT="]"The timing of Trichet's comments is not coincidental. He wanted to make very clear that he is the one giving guidance to investors," said Martin van Vliet, senior economist at ING.[/FONT]
[FONT="]"To say though that he implicitly favours Draghi as successor by making the comments in an interview with an Italian newspaper would be going too far."[/FONT]
[FONT="]Schneider Foreign Exchange's Gallo said any focus on the ECB succession debate would be to miss a crucial point, namely that the Bundesbank's inflation-fighting credentials offer perhaps the greatest guarantee for the single currency.[/FONT]
[FONT="]"These principles -- largely shunned in a world of easy monetary policy and deflationary pressures -- could ultimately be the linchpin that provides further confidence in the euro over the longer term," he wrote in a note to clients.[/FONT]
[FONT="]Source Reuters - Balkans.com[/FONT]
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