ECB rift spices up debate on bond buys
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  Christiaan Hetzner,Marc Jones,Sakari Suoninen FRANKFURT - 19.10.2010
    
[FONT="]A  rift between senior European Central Bank policymakers over how to  nurse the euro zone economy back to health risks unnerving investors and  could play a role in determining who becomes the bank's next boss,  analysts say.[/FONT]
 
  [FONT="]ECB  President Jean-Claude Trichet on Monday slapped down policy hawk Axel  Weber for saying last week that buying bonds issued by euro zone  periphery nations like Greece had not helped calm debt market tensions  and should be "phased out permanently". [/FONT]
 
  [FONT="]Weber's  intervention raised unwelcome questions over the future direction of  ECB policy, with some saying the man heavily tipped to replace Trichet  when the Frenchman steps down in October now looked increasingly  isolated within the ECB, while others said he had enhanced his  credentials as a guardian of price stability.[/FONT]
 
  [FONT="]"Weber's  motivation is entirely unclear to me. Were the ECB to tell the markets  today that it would stop buying euro zone sovereign bonds, tomorrow that  would be a near catastrophe," said Michael Rottmann, Head of Interest  and Currency Strategy at UniCredit.[/FONT]
 
  [FONT="]"Spread  volatility would increase enormously, if the strongest and in times of  stress only purchaser of periphery sovereign debt were to leave the  market."[/FONT]
 
  [FONT="]Confidence  that the worst of the euro zone crisis may be over has encouraged  investors to wade back into the market, bidding up prices in recent  weeks for Greek, Irish, and Portuguese sovereign bonds and effectively  doing the ECB's job for it.[/FONT]
 
  [FONT="]"On  the surface, Weber doesn't seem to be doing himself or the Governing  Council any favours, since it was ultimately the Securities Market  Programme (SMP) that halted a vicious downward spiral in the euro  earlier in the year," wrote Stephen Gallo, head of Market Analysis at  Schneider Foreign Exchange.[/FONT]
 
  [FONT="]But  central banks need their hardliners "(to) provide markets and  households with clues that (they) ... haven't completely `dropped the  ball' on being anchors of price stability.[/FONT]
 
  [FONT="]"We don't chastise the BoE and Fed for Sentance and Hoenig, so why should we chastise the ECB for Weber?"[/FONT]
 
  [FONT="]CLOSING THE STABLE DOOR?[/FONT]
 
  [FONT="]Some  argue the debate has in any case lost its relevance, given that the ECB  spent precisely nothing to prop up demand last week -- for the first  time since the 63.5 billion euro bond buying programme began. [/FONT]
 
  [FONT="]"Fund  managers are reducing their short positions on the periphery. It  started with Greece in mid-September, then Ireland began to perform once  the bad news on its banking system became public. We have seen some  pretty heavy buying of Portugal's debt last week," said ING interest  rate strategist Padhraic Garvey.[/FONT]
 
  [FONT="]But  market confidence will be tested again on Tuesday when Portugal's  leading opposition party, the centre-right Social Democrats (PSD), meets  to decide whether to back the government's austerity plans for 2011. [/FONT]
 
  [FONT="]At  worst, any budget setback paired with open dissent in the ECB could  embolden investors to launch a speculative attack on EU sovereign bond  markets that could ruin the still fragile confidence in Greek, Irish and  Portuguese creditworthiness.[/FONT]
 
  [FONT="]"You  cannot rule that out. Whenever a central bank begins to buy back  sovereign debt, it always exposes itself to such a flank," said Barclays  Capital economist Thorsten Polleit.[/FONT]
 
  [FONT="]Whether  Bundesbank head Weber's vocal dissent harms his chance of inheriting  the monetary throne of the ECB in November -- as more and more analysts  believe -- is of secondary importance, Polleit argues.[/FONT]
 
  [FONT="]"More  than anything, Weber is contributing constructively to an issue that  has not received enough attention: the presently incalculable risks  associated with the current global policy of monetizing debt. He is  sensitizing the public to a much-needed debate that has fallen by the  wayside." he said.[/FONT]
 
  [FONT="]PRAISE FOR DRAGHI?[/FONT]
 
  [FONT="]Italian  media jumped on praise for Italy from Trichet at the weekend as a  possible endorsement of the bank's head Mario Draghi, viewed as Weber's  main rival.[/FONT]
 
  [FONT="]But  one analyst said it would be unwise to read too much into Trichet's  observation that the Bank of Italy had been "vigilant in exerting  surveillance" during the financial crisis.[/FONT]
 
  [FONT="]"The  timing of Trichet's comments is not coincidental. He wanted to make  very clear that he is the one giving guidance to investors," said Martin  van Vliet, senior economist at ING.[/FONT]
 
  [FONT="]"To  say though that he implicitly favours Draghi as successor by making the  comments in an interview with an Italian newspaper would be going too  far."[/FONT]
 
  [FONT="]Schneider  Foreign Exchange's Gallo said any focus on the ECB succession debate  would be to miss a crucial point, namely that the Bundesbank's  inflation-fighting credentials offer perhaps the greatest guarantee for  the single currency.[/FONT]
 
  [FONT="]"These  principles -- largely shunned in a world of easy monetary policy and  deflationary pressures -- could ultimately be the linchpin that provides  further confidence in the euro over the longer term," he wrote in a  note to clients.[/FONT]
 
  
[FONT="]Source Reuters - Balkans.com[/FONT]
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[FONT="]Tutto quello che vola sopra la testa degli ellenici ...
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