Roubini Says U.S., Europe Slowdown Will Curtail Growth in Emerging Markets
By Daryna Krasnolutska and Kateryna Choursina - Oct 19, 2010 11:26 AM GMT+0200 Tue Oct 19 09:26:20 GMT 2010
Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor who predicted the global financial crisis, said slowing economic growth in advanced economies will eventually curtail the recovery in emerging markets.
U.S. economic growth may slow to 1 percent by the end of this year from 1.7 percent in the second quarter as fiscal stimulus becomes a “fiscal drag,” Roubini said at a conference in Kiev organized by Investment Capital Ukraine. A sluggish recovery in the U.S., western Europe and Japan will eventually slow growth in emerging markets, he said.
“My base scenario is that we will have a slow, U-shaped recovery in the advanced economies, but still there is a probability of a double-dip recession, or near depression, as in Japan in the 1990s,” Roubini said. “The recovery in advanced economies is still very tentative.”
Federal Reserve policy makers last month said U.S. growth was likely to be “modest in the near term” and added that they were prepared to ease monetary policy further if needed. The U.S. economy has grown for the past four quarters after exiting its worst recession since the 1930s.
“If growth is only 1 percent, it is going to feel like recession, though technically it will not be a recession,” Roubini said. “You don’t create private jobs, the budget deficit widens, house prices go down instead of stabilizing.”
While Roubini forecast a “V-shaped” recovery for many parts of Asia and Latin America, including China, India and Brazil, he said growth in emerging markets would be weaker in the second half of this year and into 2011. China’s economy grew at an annual rate of 10.3 percent in the second quarter.
Eurozone Periphery
Roubini, who in October 2008 said he still saw “significant downside risks to equity markets,” failed to predict the stock market rebound that sent shares across the globe soaring over the past 18 months. The
Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has gained 73 percent since dropping to a March 2009 low.
Today, Roubini warned that the “fundamental problems” of Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain haven’t been resolved after Europe’s sovereign debt crisis. The euro may strengthen against the dollar as the Federal Reserve eases monetary policy, potentially extending the recession in these countries, he said.
“I am worried about the five countries on the periphery of the eurozone,” Roubini said. While there is a risk these countries may leave the eurozone, “I think the break up is less likely than restructuring of public debt,” he said.
Roubini also said there is a danger of trade wars breaking out as countries weaken their currencies to stimulate exports.
“We are in a world where everybody wants to grow” through exports, he said. “The risk of trade war is severe in relations between the U.S. and China.”
(Bloomberg)
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