Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato - Cap. 1

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EURO GOVT-Bunds rally; Portugal, Ireland lead periphery down


LONDON | Thu Oct 28, 2010 3:46am EDT



LONDON Oct 28 (Reuters) - German Bunds rallied on Wednesday as peripheral issuers came under pressure, led by Portuguese and Irish issues after talks on the former's budget broke down.
December Bund futures FGBLU0 hit a session high of 129.14, up 34 ticks on the day. Two- and 10-year bond yields DE2YT=TWEBDE10YT=TWEB were up around 2.5 bps at 0.996 percent and 2.539 percent respectively.
The Irish/German 10-year government bond yield spread widened 21 bps to 452 bps, the most in a month, with the Portuguese equivalent 16 bps wider at 356 bps.
Peripheral debt was knocked on Wednesday by an upward revision in Greece's budget deficit figures as well as news of a breakdown in budget talks between the Portuguese government and the opposition.
"It's still the domestic policy issue which is a major burden for Portuguese government bonds," said David Schnautz, a strategist at Commerzbank.
"The unfortunate timing yesterday where we had the auction first and then the announcement of the stalemate in the politics obviously left a very bad taste for those who participated in the acution, so there's some kind of hangover from bad timing."


***
Una panoramica veloce sulla periferia ...
 
EU's Rehn says he prefers no treaty change

28 October 2010 8:39



(Reuters) - EU's Economy and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said on Thursday he preferred not to change the European Union's treaty while creating a permanent crisis resolution mechanism.
"In my opinion it is much better to target to do this without a treaty change, but I think it should not be completely ruled out, either," Rehn said in an interview with Finnish broadcaster MTV3.
Germany and France, the EU's dominant powers, have upset many of their partners by reaching a deal independently to push for changes to the bloc's fundamental treaty which they say are needed to guarantee long-term fiscal discipline.
EU leaders later this week are expected to approve an Oct. 18 agreement by a task force of finance ministers to impose sanctions on member states that violate budget deficit and debt limits, following in the wake of Greece's debt crisis.
 
Cyprus banking outlook remains negative due to exposure to Greece


October 28, 2010 - Cyprus news portal on business, politics, investments and economy.



The outlook for the Cypriot banking system is negative, reflecting the challenging operating conditions and the rated banks' direct and sizeable exposure to the Greek economy, Moody's Investors Service said in a new Banking System Outlook.
"Asset quality and earnings for the rated Cypriot banks will remain under pressure in the near to medium term, given the muted economic growth in Cyprus and the anticipated economic contraction in Greece stemming from the Greek government's austerity measures," explained Christos Theofilou, Moody's analyst and author of the report.
The Moody's-rated Cypriot banks have direct and sizeable exposures in Greece through branches or subsidiaries, accounting for 41% of total loans as of June. The Greek exposures are affected by weak corporate earnings (due to the economic contraction) and reduced household disposable income (due to rising unemployment rates, additional tax measures and enforcement, and salary cuts). These factors will likely lead to substantially higher non-performing loans in Cypriot banks' loan books.
Moody's also expects non-performing loans to continue to rise in Cyprus, where economic activity is expected to remain weak in 2011. The country's real-estate market -- which is a significant component of the banks' loan books and represents the majority of collateral for loans -- remains a risk area with weak demand and unclear growth prospects.
"Bottom-line profitability for Cypriot banks will likely remain modest, slightly below 2009 levels, as it continues to be negatively affected by the weak macro-economic conditions in Cyprus and Greece, with elevated loan-loss provisions over the next 12 to 18 months. The contribution to overall profitability from Greece will likely remain minimal or negative due to high provisioning needs, high funding costs and low new business volume," added Theofilou.
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Ieri OTC giornata pesante per i Tds greci, con take profit diffusi in particolare sulla parte ultradecennale della curva, ed ancor più sul suo tratto lunghissimo (la coppia 2037-2040 che, per prudenza, sarebbe bene considerare esclusivamente in chiave difensiva per la malaugurata ipotesi di eventuale default, e quindi valutare dal punto di vista del recovery sul nominale dei titoli, e non del rendimento a scadenza, salvo ovviamente che per i traders più scafati).

Sulle scadenze 2016-2019 il rendimento lordo si è riportato in prossimità del 10%, e talvolta leggermente al di sopra.

I GGBei sembrano tenere molto meglio del resto della compagnia dei titoli lunghi.

il 2013 - 89,08 (BBML) 89,17 (Xtrakter);
il 2014 - 86,22 (BBML) 86,36 (Xtrakter);
il 2015 - 85,89 (BBML) 86,00 (Xtrakter);
il 2016 - 73,08 (BBML) 73,29 (Xtrakter);
il 2017 - 72,13 (BBML) 72,10 (Xtrakter);
il 2018 - 71,40 (BBML) 71,43 (Xtrakter);
il 2019 6% 77,25 (BBML) 77,40 (Xtrakter);
il 2019 6.5% 79,30 (BBML) 79,48 (Xtrakter);
il 2022 - 74,95 (BBML) 74,93 (Xtrakter);
il 2024 - 65,14 (BBML) 65,46 (Xtrakter);
il 2026 - 66,60 (BBML) 66,95 (Xtrakter);
il 2037 - 57,77 (BBML) 58,02 (Xtrakter);
il 2040 - 57,67 (BBML) 58,38 (Xtrakter);

GGBei 2025 - 54,60 (BBML), non significativo su Xtrakter
GGBei 2030 - 51,20 (BBML), non significativo su Xtrakter

Ripristino il day by day perché la piega degli ultimi giorni mi sembra da monitorare attentamente...

Ieri tracollo dei Tds greci, con cali compresi fra i 2 ed i 4 punti pct e curva dei rendimenti catapultata sopra il 10% lordo su tutto il tratto compreso fra il 2013 ed il 2019.

Utile in fasi come queste l'analisi tecnica, per capire dove il calo potrebbe arrestarsi, stante che più di un titolo è in prossimità di supporti e rimbalza oggi sui mercati retail, sebbene con volumi non entusiasmanti.

il 2013 - 86,84 (BBML) 86,14 (Xtrakter);
il 2014 - 83,93 (BBML) 84,01 (Xtrakter);
il 2015 - 83,52 (BBML) 84,09 (Xtrakter);
il 2016 - 70,65 (BBML) 70,83 (Xtrakter);
il 2017 - 69,59 (BBML) 69,94 (Xtrakter);
il 2018 - 68,71 (BBML) 69,50 (Xtrakter);
il 2019 6% 74,25 (BBML) 74,26 (Xtrakter);
il 2019 6.5% 76,23 (BBML) 76,60 (Xtrakter);
il 2022 - 72,59 (BBML) 73,22 (Xtrakter);
il 2024 - 63,40 (BBML) 63,69 (Xtrakter);
il 2026 - 65,11 (BBML) 65,52 (Xtrakter);
il 2037 - 56,71 (BBML) 56,80 (Xtrakter);
il 2040 - 56,64 (BBML) 56,79 (Xtrakter);

GGBei 2025 - 53,74 (BBML), non significativo su Xtrakter
GGBei 2030 - 50,30 (BBML), non significativo su Xtrakter
 
Turkey-Greece-Italy gas pipeline is useful for whole Europe

28. October 2010. | 11:23
Source: Azertac



The Turkey-Greece-Italy gas pipeline, which will transport Azerbaijan`s natural gas to Europe is not only useful for these countries, but also for whole Europe, said Greek deputy minister of foreign affairs Spyros Kouvelis in an interview to Turkish Anadolu agency.


The Turkey-Greece-Italy gas pipeline, which will transport Azerbaijan`s natural gas to Europe is not only useful for these countries, but also for whole Europe, said Greek deputy minister of foreign affairs Spyros Kouvelis in an interview to Turkish Anadolu agency.

Kouvelis praised implementation of the project by Azerbaijan, Turkey, Greece and Italy.

The Greek diplomat stressed the European Commission has always backed the project.

Kouvelis stressed the pipeline has never been a rival to Nabucco, adding “the projects are both useful for energy security of Europe”.
 
Ripristino il day by day perché la piega degli ultimi giorni mi sembra da monitorare attentamente...

Ieri tracollo dei Tds greci, con cali compresi fra i 2 ed i 4 punti pct e curva dei rendimenti catapultata sopra il 10% lordo su tutto il tratto compreso fra il 2013 ed il 2019.

Utile in fasi come queste l'analisi tecnica, per capire dove il calo potrebbe arrestarsi, stante che più di un titolo è in prossimità di supporti e rimbalza oggi sui mercati retail, sebbene con volumi non entusiasmanti.

il 2013 - 86,84 (BBML) 86,14 (Xtrakter);
il 2014 - 83,93 (BBML) 84,01 (Xtrakter);
il 2015 - 83,52 (BBML) 84,09 (Xtrakter);
il 2016 - 70,65 (BBML) 70,83 (Xtrakter);
il 2017 - 69,59 (BBML) 69,94 (Xtrakter);
il 2018 - 68,71 (BBML) 69,50 (Xtrakter);
il 2019 6% 74,25 (BBML) 74,26 (Xtrakter);
il 2019 6.5% 76,23 (BBML) 76,60 (Xtrakter);
il 2022 - 72,59 (BBML) 73,22 (Xtrakter);
il 2024 - 63,40 (BBML) 63,69 (Xtrakter);
il 2026 - 65,11 (BBML) 65,52 (Xtrakter);
il 2037 - 56,71 (BBML) 56,80 (Xtrakter);
il 2040 - 56,64 (BBML) 56,79 (Xtrakter);

GGBei 2025 - 53,74 (BBML), non significativo su Xtrakter
GGBei 2030 - 50,30 (BBML), non significativo su Xtrakter

Grazie come sempre per le quotazioni OTC :)
Ne approfitto per chiederti un chiarimento sulla '40: dici che è interessante più altro in chiave di recovery rate nel caso di default, più che in termini di rendimento alla scadenza. D'accordo con te su questo, ma in aggiunta mi sembra che dia anche un discreto yield to cash. Oggi @ 57,49 (lettera sul mercato retail), se non faccio male i conti, rende il 7% netto. Che ne dici?
 
Fiori da cogliere

Ciao Giuseppe, ho sempre seguito la situazione greca ma ne sono stato sempre alla larga. Dispongo solo del Mot per ora, e l'unica obb. greca che ho seguito costantemente è la IT0006527532 R ELLENICA-99/19 5% che oggi ha perso il 2,60% a 71,27 :eek:.
A livello di pura scommessa sono fortemente tentato ad entrarci ma con un cippettino e solo se nei prossimi gg dovesse scendere ancora. Che ne pensi di un tale assaggino di questi tempi?
Non sono stato li a calcolarne il rendimento se non altro per scaramanzia :D.

:ciao: Ciao Prospero, quel titolo non lo seguo, ma in generale un cippettino su un titolo greco ci può stare (anche ai minimi di oggi), consapevoli dei rischi che si assumono. Io sono entrato oggi un po' sul 2014 5,5% intorno a 84. Ma si può scendere ancora, e quindi un po' di liquidità per abbassare il pmc è da tenere di scorta. Se si scende ancora credo che qualche fiore consapevole vada colto :).
A me finora in Grecia è andata bene (con slow trading), forse fortuna :D.
Ciao, ciao, Giuseppe
 
China gaining ground in eastern Europe


China's influence on Europe's economies is growing. Countries in eastern Europe need capital, and China is willing to give it to them at unbeatable interest rates in order to achieve its geopolitical goals.





The number of large-scale Chinese projects in eastern European countries is growing, according to the Committee on Eastern European Economic Relations, Ost-Ausschuss der Deutschen Wirtschaft (OA). This influential lobbying group for German industries involved in the region said such deals particularly focused on infrastructure.

According to an OA survey published earlier this month, Chinese funding has enabled a slew of new ventures. In Serbia, the Export-Import Bank of China (EXIM) has helped finance a 170-million euro ($235 million) bridge project in Belgrade. China and Croatia have agreed to build a new airport in Zagreb, and a Chinese industrial zone is to be constructed in Bulgaria, near the capital Sofia.

The China Development Bank has said it will help support the expansion of wind energy in Romania, in addition to China's plans to invest a total of some one billion euros in the Romanian energy, agricultural and mining sectors. In Moldova,the China Overseas Engineering Group (Covec) is to conduct infrastructure projects with a total value of one billion euros - amounting to some 10 percent of Moldova's entire GDP.

Eberhard Sandschneider, a China expert from the German Council on Foreign Relations DGAP, said Beijing is keen on securing resources and gaining access to markets in all of these countries. But most importantly, China wants to gradually position itself strategically in the region, he said.
"Such poor nations, which are easier to impress than other countries by the mass of Chinese investment sums, are often grateful objects to enter into such policies," Sandschneider said.

Distorting competition

One project in particular has caused quite a stir. Last year, Covec - the subsidiary of the state-owned Chinese railway - won two public contracts in Poland for the construction of two sections of the A2 motorway between Warsaw and Lodz.
The project is funded by a 500-million euro loan from the European Investment Bank. It is the first time that such a major EU construction project has been awarded to a Chinese contractor.

The European Construction Industry Federation (FIEC) in Brussels said Covec underbid the construction costs by 30 percent from the next bidder. For FIEC, it's a clear case of distorting competition. It suspects the Chinese state is providing direct and thus unfair help for Covec and will probably bear any losses which may result.

"If our companies were also supported with 500 million dollars in state aid, we could also offer cheaper prices," said Ulrich Paetzold, FIEC's director general. "But our companies can simply not compete fairly with the People's Republic of China."
OA said in its survey it suspected that the project is also to serve as a reference for similar invitations to tender in Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary.

Dubious financing

The OA survey found that China was taking advantage of the current economic climate, using aggressive financing methods.
"China of course has used the economic crisis in western Europe in order to win market shares," said OA chairman Klaus Mangold. "There's nothing to say against affordable financing, when they are in some way economically comprehensible. But this is not the case."

The EXIM deal with Serbia, for example, involved a loan of 145 million euros at three percent interest for a period of 15 years. The normal market interest rate for such a project, however, is a minimum of six percent over a period of five years, OA said.

"This can not be justified at all as an interest rate orientated to international markets," Mangold said.
OA said in its survey that the Chinese credit institutions' risk assessment appeared to correlate directly with the strategic interests of the political leadership in Beijing.
"The greater the political interest, the lower the guarantees required," the Committee said.

Regulatory measures

Many eastern European countries have no qualms taking advantage of China's financing methods. Even crisis-plagued Greece is happy to have a strong investor in times when western backers are showing reservations in pumping money to Athens.

Greece already in 2007 entered into a "strategic partnership" with China. The Chinese maritime freight group Cosco took over control of part of the container port in Piraeus in 2008. The Thessaloniki port is next on the agenda.


Greece is the ideal bridgehead for Chinese trade to Europe, said Christos Alexakis, head of Invest in Greece, the agency that promotes and facilitates private investment there. Not only does his country profit from Chinese capital, he said.

"There's also a significant psychological aspect which benefits us," Alexakis said. "It is very encouraging to underline China's decisiveness in its course of action in Greece. Where other fear turbulence and back down, Chinese companies such as Cosco decide to set out and profit from a strategically important transport project in Europe."

But not everyone is as happy as Alexakis about China's involvement in Europe. Last month, German chancellor Angela Merkel recommended limiting Chinese access to EU government contracts. Calling for more transparency, she said it had to be clear how much Chinese companies were being supported by state institutions and banks when competing for contracts with European firms.

FIEC's Paetzold said regulations needed to be sharpened so that such dumping offers could be ruled out. But DGAP's Sandschneider said critics should be careful talking about the distortion of competition considering the amount of official backing available for various sectors in the EU.

"As long as this level of subsidies exists in the EU, it's difficult to truly attack the fact that the Chinese government is trying to position its companies globally and come to their aid to a degree that it could have an effect," Sandschneider said.

Meanwhile, the Chinese government has now undertaken its latest investment at the doorway to Europe with a 28-billion dollar railway project in Turkey.

China gaining ground in eastern Europe | World | Deutsche Welle | 28.10.2010

***
Queste cose la sig. Merkel le può tranquillamente mandare dire a Pechino, dato che è il maggior partner commerciale ...
 
COSA PENSA IL GRANDE MUSICISTA GRECO THEODORAKIS

Greek composer Mikis Theodorakis, one of the symbols of the struggle against the military junta, has lashed out at Greek Prime Minister Giorge Papandreou. He announced that if the latter were to call early elections in the country he would create a Movement of Civic Resistance.
Over the past few days in a televised interview Papandreou did not rule out calling early legislative elections in the upcoming local ones on November 7 th , if Greek citizens do not confirm their confidence. Papandreou said that this may block the reforms that he intends to bring in. It was a statement meant to resist the ”protest vote” hoped for by the opposition.
In statements broadcast by the Skai television channel, Theodorakis aged 85, called the prime minister’s words ”blackmail” to force Greeks to vote for PASOK. The polls show that PASOK may be losing support but it is still enjoying a clear lead. ”With his interview Papandreou is blackmailing the Greek population by telling them that if they do not vote for him then he will call early elections…in the current circumstances new elections would mean the end of Greece, its dissolution and paralysis.” stated Theodorakis.
According to the well known composer, if what Papandreou does and says were done by a center-right government, the left would have ‘’set Greece on fire”.

(Greek Reporter.gr)
 
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