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Greek PM advisor Papademos against debt restructuring

George Georgiopoulos, ATHENS - 11.11.2010



Lucas Papademos, an advisor to Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou and a former Vice-Chairman of the ECB, said on Wednesday he was against a debt restructuring in Greece or in Europe.

"The debt restructuring that is currently debated is not a desirable solution, neither for Greece nor for the eurozone," he said in a speech in Athens. "It is not necessary and it is not inevitable," he added.

Source Reuters - Balkans.com

 
Evidentemente i loro padroni non hanno ancora fatto il pieno di CDS sovrani Irlanda ... abbi pazienza ancora per un paio di giorni :-o
Se dovesse accadere si sprofonda! Ammesso che i TdS ellenici siano sui minini (francamente ho qualche perplessità :help:) nel breve periodo i TdS irlandesi e portoghesi dovrebbero allinearsi come rendimento; dovremo ad es. vedere il TdS irlandese 2025 - 5,4% quotare in un range compreso tra 62 - 64, quasi -10 pb rispetto l'attuale prezzo.
 
Se dovesse accadere si sprofonda! Ammesso che i TdS ellenici siano sui minini (francamente ho qualche perplessità :help:) nel breve periodo i TdS irlandesi e portoghesi dovrebbero allinearsi come rendimento; dovremo ad es. vedere il TdS irlandese 2025 - 5,4% quotare in un range compreso tra 62 - 64, quasi -10 pb rispetto l'attuale prezzo.

Tieni conto che, magari sarà secondario, il percorso della Grecia è già stato tracciato.
A fatica, ma gli obiettivi sinora sono stati raggiunti...
Per gli altri la strada è tutta da percorrere.
Non a caso possiamo vedere, pur spingendo verso l'allargamento degli spread, una sostanziale tenuta di posizione.
 
ND gets serious in Athens


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After wavering support, Kaklamanis receives full backing of party leader Samaras


New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras yesterday tried to dispel rumors that the party is not fully behind its candidate for Athens mayor, incumbent Nikitas Kaklamanis, as the conservatives step up their campaign to shock the government by winning control of the country’s three biggest municipalities and the Attica region in Sunday’s second round of local elections.

Samaras, who will be touring the country this week in a bid to drum up support for ND candidates, met with Kaklamanis in Athens and said his experience compared to the inexperience of rival candidate Giorgos Kaminis would be vital for Athens. “The [EU-IMF] memorandum not only makes things tough in the marketplace, it also affects local administration,” said the ND leader. “That’s why we have to choose people who have the knowledge and the ability to fight for things. That’s why I came here today to wish good luck to Nikitas Kaklamanis.”

Kaklamanis, the current mayor, got almost 35 percent of the vote on Sunday but Kaminis, running as an independent with the support of PASOK and Democratic Left, did better than expected by gaining just over 28 percent.
It had been rumored that ND’s leadership does not see eye to eye with Kaklamanis as he is unwilling to toe the party line. However, faced with the possibility that Kaminis might cause an upset on Sunday, the conservatives have rallied around the incumbent Athens mayor.

A victory for Kaklamanis could also be part of a memorable Sunday night for ND, as it also seeks to control the municipalities of Piraeus and Thessaloniki. In Piraeus, ND’s candidate Vassilis Michaloliakos trailed PASOK’s Yiannis Michas by 29.6 to 23. But the conservative received a boost yesterday when Petros Mantouvalos, the independent who placed third with almost 19 percent, declared his support for Michaloliakos.

Samaras is also hoping that the party’s little-known candidate for Attica governor, Vassilis Kikilias, will be able to cause a major upset by beating PASOK’s Yiannis Sgouros, who was Attica prefect until now. Sgouros gained 24 percent compared to Kikilias’s 20 percent in the first round but ND hopes that it will be able to convince some of the voters who supported independent Yiannis Dimaras, who campaigned on an anti-memorandum platform, to back the conservative candidate.


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(Kathimerini.gr)
 
Budget goals are looking hazier
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Numbers show fiscal data roughly on target for now; deficit for this year to rise due to 2009 Eurostat revision


The government is roughly on track with its 10-month budget goals but data released yesterday showed that it needs to pick up the pace of housekeeping efforts in order to meet its full-year goals.
The Finance Ministry said it cut the budget shortfall for the January-October period by 30 percent to 17.4 billion euros versus a target of 32 percent for the same period.

However, the full-year target aims at cutting the gap by 37 percent to 19.4 billion euros – a target that may be out of the government’s reach unless revenues pick up or the ax falls even harder on government spending.
Revenues in the 10-month period rose 3.7 percent, versus an annual target of 8.7 percent, while spending has come down by 7 percent, against a full-year target of 7.8 percent.

The news comes ahead of an expected upward revision of 2009 budget data on Monday by the EU’s statistics agency Eurostat.
Additionally, officials from the International Monetary Fund, the European Union and the European Central Bank will be in Athens next week to monitor progress ahead of a third disbursement of loans due in November.

According to a Greek government source, Greece will cut its 2010 budget gap less than previously planned to 9.3 percent of gross domestic product in 2010 due to weak revenue growth and the upward revision of last year’s deficit. The current projection for the 2010 deficit is 7.8 percent.

Austerity policies to get the deficit down to below 3 percent of GDP by 2014 have driven the economy into deep recession, making it harder for the government to collect revenues and plug the fiscal hole.
Greece’s economy is expected to contract by 4 percent in 2010. Flash third-quarter GDP data is due tomorrow.

In its draft 2011 budget, released in early October, Greece had projected this year’s shortfall would decline to 7.8 percent of GDP from 13.8 percent in 2009.
The government is expected to officially revise 2010 deficit data in its final draft of the 2011 draft budget on November 18.


(Kathimerini.gr)

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Strikes hurt export figures


Greek exports plunged by nearly 10 percent in September, reversing solid growth in the previous month, due to truck driver strike action that put the brakes on the sector with the inability to get goods to market, said exporters.
The Panhellenic Exporters Association (PEA) said that exports in September fell 9.6 percent year-on-year to 1.17 billion euros, after rising by an annual pace of 18.7 percent in August.

“The percentage drop in September is the second largest for the year, after a 14 percent drop in February, and shows once again that Greek exports follow a ‘one up, one down’ course from month to month,” PEA said in a statement yesterday.

Exports in August had been one of the Greek economy’s few bright spots, with demand for products, mainly consisting of agricultural products and industrial goods, rising from the country’s main trading partners, including Germany.
However, strike action for much of September by truck drivers opposing government plans to liberalize the road haulage sector caused problems in the transportation of goods as the truckers parked their vehicles on roadsides.

Over the first nine months of the year, exports rose by an annual rate of 2 percent to 11 billion euros, PEA added, citing data from the Hellenic Statistical Authority.
PEA has some 1,500 members across the country that account for 80 percent of total Greek exports, according to its website.

(Kathimerini.gr)
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La terza, se così sarà, porterà gli investitori fuori dal circuito dei bond periferici.
A quel punto o le banche bilanceranno, acquistando loro i bond governativi (come fanno ora peraltro) e parallelamente emettendo loro debito in pieno schema ponzi oppure ci saranno default ogni x anni per ribilanciare il sistema.

In linea generale questo schema rappresenterebbe l'ennesima porcheria finanziaria e rimanderebbe solo il problema con soluzioni parziali periodiche.
Naturalmente essendo una soluzione politica e non economica non lo escluderei a priori.

Invero, credo che il range di opzioni sia più ampio, e mi permetto di menzionarne una terza: poiché i mercati non possono consentire una periodica e cronica incapacità di rispettare gli impegni assunti (vedi il caso Argentina) vi potrà essere, secondo me, non più di 1 ristrutturazione del debito sovrano all'interno dell'euro da parte di ciascun paese aderente, dopodiché o sei in grado di stare nella moneta unica avendone beneficio e rispettandone le regole, oppure esci e fai quello che vuoi.

Anche perché mi chiedo se a questo punto qualcuno reputi anche lontanamente verosimile l'ipotesi di ingresso nell'euro fra il 2014 ed il 2015 di Ungheria, Romania e Bulgaria, prima allettate dalla prospettiva di ricevere valanghe di credito a basso costo.
 
Altra giornata interlocutoria quella di ieri: qualche modesto avanzamento in un quadro di prezzi tendenzialmente stabili. Dal fronte orientale dell'euro dunque nulla di nuovo, e anche la conformazione della curva dei rendimenti non mostra particolari novità rispetto a quanto evidenziato nei giorni scorsi.

il 2013 - 83,62 (BBML) 83,85 (Xtrakter);
il 2014 - 79,45 (BBML) 79,41 (Xtrakter);
il 2015 - 78,98 (BBML) 78,87 (Xtrakter);
il 2016 - 66,45 (BBML) 66,44 (Xtrakter);
il 2017 - 64,73 (BBML) 64,79 (Xtrakter);
il 2018 - 63,87 (BBML) 63,83 (Xtrakter);
il 2019 6% 69,37 (BBML) 69,60 (Xtrakter);
il 2019 6.5% 71,06 (BBML) 71,27 (Xtrakter);
il 2022 - 70,75 (BBML) 70,72 (Xtrakter);
il 2024 - 61,60 (BBML) 61,99 (Xtrakter);
il 2026 - 63,51 (BBML) 63,63 (Xtrakter);
il 2037 - 55,12 (BBML) 55,47 (Xtrakter);
il 2040 - 55,12 (BBML) 54,96 (Xtrakter);

GGBei 2025 - 52,09 (BBML), non significativo su Xtrakter
GGBei 2030 - 49,86 (BBML), non significativo su Xtrakter

La tregua sui prezzi manifestatasi negli ultimi giorni ha subito una interruzione ieri. La giornata ha visto ancora cali sui prezzi, seppure in un range non drammatico, almeno se si fa il raffronto con quanto visto nella scorsa settimana. Il declino si è attestato in un range medio di 0,7-0,8% su tutte le scadenze (con un un calo minimo di 0,5 punti pct ed uno massimo di 1,5 punti pct). In calo anche i GGBei.

Piuttosto stabile l'andamento della curva dei rendimenti, con uno spread fra il 2013-2014 ed il 2019 inferiore ad 1 punto pct, analogo a quello dei giorni scorsi, mentre sul tratto lunghissimo della curva il rendimento si assesta sul 9% lordo.

Notate anche come i ribassi siano stati mediamente più marcati nella rilevazione BBML che in quella Xtrakter.

il 2013 - 82,89 (BBML) 83,25 (Xtrakter);
il 2014 - 78,61 (BBML) 78,86 (Xtrakter);
il 2015 - 77,74 (BBML) 78,02 (Xtrakter);
il 2016 - 65,54 (BBML) 65,75 (Xtrakter);
il 2017 - 63,96 (BBML) 64,13 (Xtrakter);
il 2018 - 62,96 (BBML) 63,14 (Xtrakter);
il 2019 6% 68,48 (BBML) 69,30 (Xtrakter);
il 2019 6.5% 70,18 (BBML) 70,64 (Xtrakter);
il 2022 - 69,43 (BBML) 69,88 (Xtrakter);
il 2024 - 61,20 (BBML) 61,58 (Xtrakter);
il 2026 - 63,19 (BBML) 63,31 (Xtrakter);
il 2037 - 54,52 (BBML) 54,63 (Xtrakter);
il 2040 - 54,45 (BBML) 54,74 (Xtrakter);

GGBei 2025 - 51,47 (BBML), non significativo su Xtrakter
GGBei 2030 - 48,95 (BBML), non significativo su Xtrakter
 
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