Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato - Cap. 1

[AAAA47]

soprattutto stando al regolamento della grecia 2025 in caso di default la cedola indicizzata è dovuta cmq in quanto è oggetto di uno swap fatto con banche d'affari..

e se la 2025 sta a 40 e una piu' breve sta a 50 la differenza è del 25%... ossia non poco !
In sintesi: la 2025 è e resta la piu' cheap

ciao
Andrea

queste sono solo ipotesi (vogli oproprio vederti chi te la da la cedola se la grecia fa default....ti vengono a cercare a casa per portartela, servita su un piatto d'argento con conrnetto e cappuccino!)
se credi ad un default, vendi tutto e basta
quanto puoi aver perso? se l'hai comprata un anno fa a 54, oggi, tra cedola e rivalutazione inflazione la perdita e' abbastanza limitata...diciamo un 25% ? pazienza, stoppi il loss
ma se non si crede nel default, sai meglio di me che una 2019 a 45 salira' di piu' (infatti oggi l'ho restituite a 50,20), una 2014 a 51,5 salira' di piu', infatti oggi gia' le compravano a 53,50, una 2015 3,7 a 48 salira' di piu', infatti oggi a 50 NON me le hanno date, una 2017 4,3 a 46,8 salira' di piu' (infatti oggi a 47 nel pomeriggio NON me le davano) etc etc etc
qualsiasi cosa breve salira' piu' di una 2025 e molto piu' di una 2037-2040

cmq le 2025 ancora ce le ho, ma adesso , avendo una buona parte del ptf sulle "brevi" penso di avere piu' possibilita' di gains, infatti gia' sulla 2019 ho fatto il +10% in 2 giorni, mentre la 2025 e' rimasta inchiodata a 40 o meno
e anche la 2015 e' salita di circa 3 punti (+6%), la 2018 oggi la lettera e' sparita, c'e' "rischio" che sia sempre piu' difficile prenderla a 46 come nei giorni scorsi, visto che gia' oggi la prendevnao a quasi 48

insomma...come tu sai, ho sempre reputato la 2025 la migliore...e infatti mi ha protetto bene il capitale...
pero', mai innamorarsi di un isin!

 

[AAAA47]

unico rischio se swappano bond fino al 2020 ?!?!
tu dirai - sempre su base volontaria

sempre su base volontaria e sempre partendo da 100
mentre io parto da 50 o anche meno
sta qui la differenza...
se me la valutano 70, a me va BENISSIMO
io faccio +40%
gli altri fanno -30%

 

[tommy271]

unico rischio se swappano bond fino al 2020 ?!?!
tu dirai - sempre su base volontaria

Altro punto "focale" ...

 

[tommy271]

Ieri giornata di attesa con chiusure contenute rispetto ai max dei giorni scorsi.
La Grecia ha tenuto una buona asta, bid/cover molto buoni e rendimenti in discesa, non è chiaro però a quanto ammonta la partecipazione degli investitori esteri.
Frau Merkel ha anticipato di non avere aspettative oltre misura dal "summit straordinario" dell'Eurogruppo mentre proseguono gli studi di scenario per risolvere il caso ellenico.
In giornata si potrebbe sapere qualcosa di più dall'incontro preparatorio che si terrà tra la Merkel e Sarkozy.

Grecia 1546 pb. (1565)
Irlanda 1118 pb. (1190)
Portogallo 1027 pb. (1021)
Spagna 345 pb. (371)
Italia 307 pb. (337)
Belgio 168 pb. (172)

 

[tommy271]

Futures bund a settembre apre invariato a 129,05

mercoledì 20 luglio 2011 08:03

 

[tommy271]

PM speaks to party leaders, heads for eurozone talks



Papandreou and Venizelos to arrive in Brussels a day ahead of crucial meeting

Following brief and inconclusive telephone conversations with opposition leaders on Tuesday, Prime Minister George Papandreou is setting off for Brussels on Wednesday, a day ahead of a eurozone leaders’ summit that could decide the fate of the Greek economy.
Papandreou will be accompanied by Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos. It is a sign of the Greek government’s desire for eurozone leaders to agree on a comprehensive solution for Athens’s debt problem that the two men will be arriving in the Belgian capital 20 hours ahead of the meeting.
Papandreou and Venizelos have refrained from stating publicly what they would consider to be a successful outcome from the talks but government sources suggested to Kathimerini yesterday that packages which include the issuing of Eurobonds or the introduction of a levy on banks that would raise money for Greece, both of which have been discussed, are viewed particularly favorably in Athens.
Publicly, the government says that it has three “red lines” for the negotiations. It wants an extension to the maturity of Greek debt, which stands at about 350 billion euros, a reduction of the interest rate that Greece is paying for its borrowing and a guarantee of liquidity for the country’s banks.
Papandreou informed the other party leaders of the government’s position but remained vague on the details of any possible outcome from the eurozone meeting as European officials continued to debate the various permutations yesterday. The prime minister’s conversation with New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras was particularly brief. Sources said that it lasted three minutes, an indication of how far apart the two parties are in terms of agreeing on a common economic strategy.
Popular Orthodox Rally (LAOS) leader Giorgos Karatzaferis is said to have advised Papandreou to walk out of the talks if they appear to be taking a turn for the worse. Samaras and Karatzaferis oppose any solution that will involve private sector participation and warned Papandreou not to accept a deal that would lead to the credit rating agencies deeming Greece to be in “selective default.”
Venizelos said that the worst outcome for Greece would be for eurozone leaders not to reach an agreement. “The worst scenario is for there to be no solution at all,” he said. “Even the worst solution will be a solution.”






ekathimerini.com , Tuesday Jul 19, 2011 (23:31)

***
La coppia Venizelos-Papandreou oggi in partenza per Bruxelles.

 

[tommy271]

Merkel dashes summit expectations



Banks’ contribution could be solution for private sector’s share in new bailout package for Greece

By Costas Karkayiannis
BRUSSELS - Amid serious disagreements, eurozone member states are trying to arrive at a solution for Greece’s public debt that would give the Greek people a breather while easing an already-raging confidence crisis.
On Tuesday German Chancellor Angela Merkel dashed hopes that Thursday’s summit on Greece would yield a quick and comprehensive solution for dealing with the debt crisis. Those who promise such a quick solution are either careless or have lost patience, she said, adding, “Either way, that is not good.”
There won’t be anything as “spectacular” as a restructuring of Greece’s debt or an agreement on Eurobonds at the eurozone summit in Brussels, Merkel said.
Instead, the chancellor stated, the summit must yield an agreement on a “controlled process of successive steps... aiming at finally getting to the cause of the problem: the issue of reducing Greece’s debt and the issue of raising its competitiveness.”
Eurozone officials are frantically examining various alternatives to be presented to the heads of member states tomorrow. Reuters revealed a document produced by the officials suggesting that the only way for Greece to avoid a selective default would be to impose a small levy on European banks combined with much smaller funding for Greece from the other eurozone members.
The banks’ contribution would bring in revenues of 10 billion euros per year, to a total of 30 billion by 2014, which would signify the considerable contribution by the private sector that Germany and the Netherlands are calling for.
This contribution will be accompanied by the rollover of Greek bonds held by Greek banks, and with a considerable lightening of the payback terms of eurozone loans. The payback period could be extended from seven to 30 years and the interest rate reduced from 4.8 percent today to 3.5 percent.
The most likely scenario, sources say, is for the summit tomorrow to reach a mix of solutions combining the banks’ contribution with the swapping of bonds and new funding for Greece from the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF). Such a solution, however, would signify a pattern for Ireland and Portugal, too, so the eurozone would have to strengthen the EFSF and its financial governance.
Meanwhile the Financial Times suggested on Tuesday that Greece’s second bailout package would include 20 billion euros for the support of Greek banks.






ekathimerini.com , Tuesday Jul 19, 2011 (23:22)

 

[Nobody's]

Merkel dashes summit expectations



Banks’ contribution could be solution for private sector’s share in new bailout package for Greece

By Costas Karkayiannis
BRUSSELS - Amid serious disagreements, eurozone member states are trying to arrive at a solution for Greece’s public debt that would give the Greek people a breather while easing an already-raging confidence crisis.
On Tuesday German Chancellor Angela Merkel dashed hopes that Thursday’s summit on Greece would yield a quick and comprehensive solution for dealing with the debt crisis. Those who promise such a quick solution are either careless or have lost patience, she said, adding, “Either way, that is not good.”
There won’t be anything as “spectacular” as a restructuring of Greece’s debt or an agreement on Eurobonds at the eurozone summit in Brussels, Merkel said.
Instead, the chancellor stated, the summit must yield an agreement on a “controlled process of successive steps... aiming at finally getting to the cause of the problem: the issue of reducing Greece’s debt and the issue of raising its competitiveness.”
Eurozone officials are frantically examining various alternatives to be presented to the heads of member states tomorrow. Reuters revealed a document produced by the officials suggesting that the only way for Greece to avoid a selective default would be to impose a small levy on European banks combined with much smaller funding for Greece from the other eurozone members.
The banks’ contribution would bring in revenues of 10 billion euros per year, to a total of 30 billion by 2014, which would signify the considerable contribution by the private sector that Germany and the Netherlands are calling for.
This contribution will be accompanied by the rollover of Greek bonds held by Greek banks, and with a considerable lightening of the payback terms of eurozone loans. The payback period could be extended from seven to 30 years and the interest rate reduced from 4.8 percent today to 3.5 percent.
The most likely scenario, sources say, is for the summit tomorrow to reach a mix of solutions combining the banks’ contribution with the swapping of bonds and new funding for Greece from the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF). Such a solution, however, would signify a pattern for Ireland and Portugal, too, so the eurozone would have to strengthen the EFSF and its financial governance.
Meanwhile the Financial Times suggested on Tuesday that Greece’s second bailout package would include 20 billion euros for the support of Greek banks.






ekathimerini.com , Tuesday Jul 19, 2011 (23:22)

Tranquilla

Non mi aspetto niente

Attenta al cerino......per sbaglio......le potrebbe finire in mano

 

[tommy271]

Il Ministro delle Finanze, nonchè vice Primo ministro, Evangelios Venizelos si recherà a Washington domenica sera.
Avrà contatti nelle giornate di lunedì e martedì con il team del FMI e con il governo statunitense.

 

[Nobody's]

Vertice zona euro domani darà messaggio forte - minFin Francia
Reuters - 20/07/2011 09:10:43

PARIGI, 20 luglio (Reuters) -


Il vertice dei capi di Stato e di governo della zona euro in agenda per domani invierà un messaggio forte e al livello più elevato in modo da evitare un contagio della crisi del debito.

Lo annuncia il ministro delle Finanze francese François Baroin.

In un'intervista all'emittente radiofonica 'France Info' il ministro dichiara, inoltre, che la riunione dovrebbe permettere un accordo su una "maggiore flessibilità nella gestione dei tassi di interesse".

"Si intende tassi più bassi e scadenze allungate, dunque condizioni più favorevoli alla Grecia nella gestione delle tensioni sul debito" aggiunge.

"Un messaggio forte che dovrà essere inviato domani al più alto livello".

Parimenti ottimista si dice il ministro per gli Affari esteri Alain Juppé. "Sono convinto si troverà un accordo" dice.

Il presidente Nicolas Sarkozy, dice una nota dell'Eliseo, incontra oggi pomeriggio a Berlino Angela Merkel in un bilaterale per il vertice di domani.