Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato - Cap. 3 (45 lettori)

GiveMeLeverage

& I will remove the world
Eurozone says no Greek deal without IMF

Peter Spiegel in Brussels, Alex Barker in Riga and Stefan Wagstyl in Berlin

European leaders have told Greece there will be no deal to release desperately needed bailout aid without approval from the more hardline International Monetary Fund, setting up a stand-off that could leave cash-strapped Athens without funds well into June.
The message, delivered by Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, to Alexis Tsipras, her Greek counterpart, at a private meeting in Riga, Latvia’s capital, as well as by lower-level European officials to their Greek interlocutors, comes as the IMF has been weighing whether to withhold its €3.6bn portion of the €7.2bn bailout tranche Athens needs to avoid default.
Eurozone and Greek negotiators have been pushing to complete a deal by the end of the month to free up bailout funds before the first in a series of loan repayments owed the IMF totalling €1.5bn falls due June 5. But securing IMF approval for a bailout deal significantly complicates that timeline.
IMF officials believe Mr Tsipras’s government has reversed many of the economic reforms the IMF had agreed with previous Greek governments and do not feel Athens will be able to hit budget targets that would allow its growing debt pile to be reduced quickly.
IMF staff have told their board they would not disburse aid without a “comprehensive” deal that started to lower debt levels. They also want EU assurances that Greece will be able to pay its bills for the next 12 months, a demand that could require eurozone governments to commit to another bailout programme.
"It has to be a comprehensive approach, not a quick and dirty job," Christine Lagarde, IMF chief, said at an event in Rio de Janeiro on Friday..
Greek officials have told their eurozone counterparts they are worried about the IMF’s hardline stance and have argued their conditions are politically undeliverable, especially when it comes to the pension reforms, which remain the biggest stumbling block.
The IMF has clashed with the European Commission over how tough a line to take, with the commission going so far as to moot cutting the IMF out of a deal. But German officials have bristled at the commission’s interventions and have made clear all three bailout monitors — the IMF, the commission and the European Central Bank — must approve any deal.
“The deal must be concluded with the three institutions,” Ms Merkel said at a gathering of leaders from the EU and former Soviet states on Friday. “There is very, very intensive work to be done.”
“They [Greece] have been listening to too many people who think that there may be some partial agreement,” said one senior eurozone official involved in the talks. “There will be no such thing. And there will be no agreement without IMF. And the IMF is super tough.”

According to people briefed on the Thursday night Riga meeting between Ms Merkel and Mr Tsipras, which included French president François Hollande, the chancellor expressed her concern about the slow pace of the talks, questioning why Greek negotiators had repeatedly broken off discussions with bailout monitors in recent days.
Mr Tsipras said the delay was needed to shore up political support at home, where the far left of his Syriza party has been threatening a “rupture” with international creditors and urging non-payment of debt obligations.
At the meeting, Mr Hollande supported Ms Merkel’s insistence that Greece include the IMF in an agreement, officials said.
According to officials briefed on the IMF position, the stand-off with Athens has focused on pension reforms and labour market liberalisation. IMF estimates show spending on Greek pensions has risen since Syriza took power in January and now accounts for 10 per cent of gross domestic product, which IMF staff believe is unsustainable.
The German hardline comes as Ms Merkel faces the possibility of a Bundestag revolt from within her own Christian Democratic bloc, where lawmakers have indicated they would be unwilling to approve further Greek aid without the IMF’s approval. About a third of MPs from her party group have signalled they would oppose more concessions to Greece.
Ms Merkel is known to be determined to avoid a Greek exit from the eurozone for the sake of Balkan stability and wider political considerations. But she has told party leaders she can only do so if Athens gives ground.
“She says, ‘I will do whatever I can to keep Greece in, but I can’t do it without them’,” said one top CDU MP. “At the end of the day, the party will vote as the chancellor advises, but she will have to fight for it.”

FT:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/dbe443aa-0079-11e5-a908-00144feabdc0.html

Google:
Eurozone says no Greek deal without IMF - FT.com
 
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GiveMeLeverage

& I will remove the world
Sempre dal FT, questo è più datato (20/05), forse era già stato postato ma mi pare valga la pena evidenziare alcune considerazioni interessanti:

Investors eye consequences of a Greek default - FT.com

[..]
The short-term consequences of a default may depend on who exactly the Greek government fails to pay, as well as on the reaction by creditors — in particular depositors and the ECB. A default by Athens on domestic payment obligations, in the form of IOUs to pensioners and civil servants, would probably be the least risky. While such a move would almost certainly be challenged in court — as well as creating substantial political problems for the government — any ruling would be delayed.
A default on IMF loans would look politically ugly, as Greece would indirectly be refusing to repay some of the poorest countries in the world who contribute to the institution’s coffers. However, it is generally seen as less risky than a default to the ECB. The fund’s executive board would only be notified a month after Greece had not met its obligations and it would take several months before any concrete steps, which could go as far as excluding Greece from the IMF, were taken.
Refusing to pay the IMF would be unlikely to trigger an automatic cross-default on other obligations. For example, the European Financial Stability Facility, the eurozone rescue fund, would need to decide if Greece was in default, leaving room for discretion among other European governments.
“Defaulting on the IMF would have serious consequences but may well be possible,” Ms Merler said.
A default to the ECB is generally seen as the most treacherous option. The Greek banking system relies on emergency funding from the central bank and any decision to close the liquidity taps would result in lenders being unable to meet their obligations.
“The main thing which counts is what will the ECB do with ELA [emergency liquidity assistance],” said Yannis Manuelides, a partner at law firm Allen & Overy. “The governing council will need to read the tea leaves and take a decision”.
The rules governing the provision of ELA are opaque but require the central bank to assess that recipient lenders are solvent.
Since Greek banks hold sizeable amounts of government bonds — which are routinely pledged to the ECB as collateral — defaulting on them would make it hard for policy makers in Frankfurt to conclude that Greek lenders could stand on their own feet.
There could, in theory, be other options. These include a bail-in of bondholders and depositors to strengthen the capital buffer of Greek banks; or a eurozone-wide guarantee on the Greek banking system. However, these would be either difficult to enact domestically or rely on the goodwill of international partners, who stand to shoulder the brunt of a default.
Were the ECB to pull the plug on ELA, the government would be left with no option but to impose capital controls and print “new drachmas” to stem an inevitable bank run.
While exit from the monetary union is illegal under EU law, it would nevertheless become a reality.
 

tommy271

Forumer storico
Eurozone says no Greek deal without IMF

According to people briefed on the Thursday night Riga meeting between Ms Merkel and Mr Tsipras, which included French president François Hollande, the chancellor expressed her concern about the slow pace of the talks, questioning why Greek negotiators had repeatedly broken off discussions with bailout monitors in recent days.
Mr Tsipras said the delay was needed to shore up political support at home, where the far left of his Syriza party has been threatening a “rupture” with international creditors and urging non-payment of debt obligations.
At the meeting, Mr Hollande supported Ms Merkel’s insistence that Greece include the IMF in an agreement, officials said.
According to officials briefed on the IMF position, the stand-off with Athens has focused on pension reforms and labour market liberalisation. IMF estimates show spending on Greek pensions has risen since Syriza took power in January and now accounts for 10 per cent of gross domestic product, which IMF staff believe is unsustainable.
The German hardline comes as Ms Merkel faces the possibility of a Bundestag revolt from within her own Christian Democratic bloc, where lawmakers have indicated they would be unwilling to approve further Greek aid without the IMF’s approval. About a third of MPs from her party group have signalled they would oppose more concessions to Greece.
Ms Merkel is known to be determined to avoid a Greek exit from the eurozone for the sake of Balkan stability and wider political considerations. But she has told party leaders she can only do so if Athens gives ground.
“She says, ‘I will do whatever I can to keep Greece in, but I can’t do it without them’,” said one top CDU MP. “At the end of the day, the party will vote as the chancellor advises, but she will have to fight for it.”

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/dbe443aa-0079-11e5-a908-00144feabdc0.html

Direi ricostruzione piuttosto verosimile ... ed attendo Tsipras al CC di Syriza.
 

tommy271

Forumer storico
Faccia a faccia con SYRIZA A .. Tsipras


Vittoria Zorba





Faccia a faccia con il partito nella fase più critica della trattativa si troverà in questo fine settimana Alexis Tsipras, un clima ben esplosivo: Le voci dei funzionari che rifiutano il compromesso con i partner e promuovono la rottura, crescono e sono in aumento.

Un primo assaggio delle sue intenzioni nei confronti del partito, dovrebbe tenere un discorso a mezzogiorno Alexis Tsipras e tutte le tribù della SYRIZA trova sul piede di guerra. Ma finora non c'è accordo, i dati misure ancora non esistono, nemmeno il chiaro schema di questi, Alexis Tsipras e Comitato centrale sarebbe "kontarochtypithoun 'su ... intenti.


Ala Sinistra

Le carte sono tenuti ad aprire molto attivo (in articoli e tirocini) Ala sinistra (che rappresenta circa il 35% dei membri del CC) e rischia di dare battaglia su ... testi.
Oltre alla famosa piattaforma di sinistra, però, guidata dal ministro dell'Energia e Produzione ricostruzione Panagiotis Lafazanis, ci sono altri, Koumoundourou che appaiono dure nella loro critica, che misura un totale di otto deputati avvertono che preparare il pensionamento da Syriza.


CMP (A. Ntavanelos)


Mr. Ntavanelos "contare" di tre deputati del gruppo parlamentare del partito di governo: cordoni Joanna, Reale lev e Helen Psarrou. Tutti e tre sono piuttosto riluttanti a sostenere Syriza nel passaggio socialdemocratico e sono in "quarantena" di Koumoundouros.


JIT (Rudi Rinaldi)


Rudi Rinaldi, capo della componente ex "JIT", un membro della segreteria e della politica del Comitato centrale di SYRIZA, e sotto la sua influenza sono cinque membri del partito di governo. Sig. E. Sotiriou, D .. Kodela, B. Chatzilamprou, M. Triantafyllou e B .. Kiriakakis. Recentemente ha intensificato le sue critiche contro il governo.


Come un si muoverà Tsipras


Alexis Tsipras ha chiamato il mio intervento in oggi essere collocato in un ambiente estremamente occupato degli scioperi di dati politici all'interno SYRIZA in vista di un compromesso doloroso.

Secondo le informazioni da parte di colleghi, il primo ministro, si prevede che riportato ampiamente le linee rosse di negoziato e ha ribadito che non intende violare lo stesso tempo, ma invierà e il messaggio severo al suo interno: è necessario fare delle concessioni e anche "Ci sono più o meno patrioti tra noi "


Nello stesso contesto, si prevede a difendere la necessità di porre fine immediatamente il contratto dalla disputa con l'economia greca, per "respirare" il paese, ma anche per consentire al governo di attuare il programma radicale a lungo termine.

(capital.gr)
 

g.ln

Triplo Panico: comprare
Target: meglio di breve termine

L'accordo si farà,Iuliano ma sarà l'accordo fra Tsipras il furbetto con la sua armata brancaleone e la scalcinata, ridicola e pavida Europa cui una Grexit preoccupa proprio e solo per la sua inconsistenza.
Questo è quanto rimarrà anche dopo l'accordo e questo è quanto i mercati continueranno a leggere con quotazioni dei nostri GGB che ben difficilmente raggiungeranno i livelli che io per primo auspicavo ma per i quali sarebbe necessaria un maggioranza politica forte e stabile, capace di imprimere un vero cambio di passo al paese, aldilà delle misure di dettaglio che poco o nulla contano (se non per il consenso elettorare) dato che il compito soverchio della politica-ormai dimenticato- non è certo quello delle misure di dettaglio ma quello di creare un clima sociale dove tutte le categorie sociali siano stimolate ad esprimersi al meglio (e pur avendo soprasseduto sino ad oggi nel dare un giudizio di Tsipras & C., quello che vedo oggi è un quadro lontano anni luce dalla situazione ideale; e non a caso i pur disperati greci cominciano a dubitare delle speranze riposte nel giovincello dalle facili promesse).
Continuo a restare investito nei GGB ritenendoli comunque un investimento sicuro, ma ho mentalmente abbandonato il target fino al quale avevo deciso di non disinvestire, e alla prima occasione davvero alternativa ai GGB in termini di rischio/rendimento liquiderò completamente la mia posizione indipendentemente dal prezzo.

Ciao Vittocesa, come sai ho spesso postato che con i titoli greci il target bisogna porlo principalmente nel breve termine, cinicamente nel breve termine.
Credo che l'accordo ci sarà, ma non risolutivo, tale da far diventare i nostri bond titoli da cassetto. Credo che i medi a 60 o poco più e il 19 a 80 sia un target a portata di mano, raggiunto il quale sarà necessario fare una sana riflessione, perchè se l'aria che tira è quella che vediamo e sentiamo in questi giorni quei target potrebbero anche non reggere nel medio.
Anche io spero che i medi arrivino a 70 e il 19 a 100 entro la fine dell'anno, tuttavia solo ferrei strumenti di protezione del capitale (trailing stop non revocabili) potranno accompagnare il raggiungimento di quei target, e per percentuali ragionevoli del proprio ptf, non certo vicini al 50% di tutto il proprio patrimonio mobiliare. Dobbiamo evitare il rischio della tela di Penelope, ritrovandoci dopo qualche mese sempre al punto di partenza.
Arricchimenti facili con la Grecia non li vedo in questo momento.
Spero che questa mia visione (che potrà cambiare se cambiano gli scenari) da trader speculativo possa essere di aiuto, specialmente ai meno consapevoli.
Ciao, ciao, Giuseppe
 

FNAIOS

Buona domenica a tutti,

Leggo che Vittocesa s'è stufato pure lui, abbandonando la sua precedente strategia dell'andare al mare e spegnere il PC, cosa che considerando l'avvicinarsi dell'estate è un brutto segno.
 

amorgos34

CHIAGNI & FOTTI SRL
Sempre dal FT, questo è più datato (20/05), forse era già stato postato ma mi pare valga la pena evidenziare alcune considerazioni interessanti:

Investors eye consequences of a Greek default - FT.com

[..]
The short-term consequences of a default may depend on who exactly the Greek government fails to pay, as well as on the reaction by creditors — in particular depositors and the ECB. A default by Athens on domestic payment obligations, in the form of IOUs to pensioners and civil servants, would probably be the least risky. While such a move would almost certainly be challenged in court — as well as creating substantial political problems for the government — any ruling would be delayed.
A default on IMF loans would look politically ugly, as Greece would indirectly be refusing to repay some of the poorest countries in the world who contribute to the institution’s coffers. However, it is generally seen as less risky than a default to the ECB. The fund’s executive board would only be notified a month after Greece had not met its obligations and it would take several months before any concrete steps, which could go as far as excluding Greece from the IMF, were taken.
Refusing to pay the IMF would be unlikely to trigger an automatic cross-default on other obligations. For example, the European Financial Stability Facility, the eurozone rescue fund, would need to decide if Greece was in default, leaving room for discretion among other European governments.
“Defaulting on the IMF would have serious consequences but may well be possible,” Ms Merler said.
A default to the ECB is generally seen as the most treacherous option. The Greek banking system relies on emergency funding from the central bank and any decision to close the liquidity taps would result in lenders being unable to meet their obligations.
“The main thing which counts is what will the ECB do with ELA [emergency liquidity assistance],” said Yannis Manuelides, a partner at law firm Allen & Overy. “The governing council will need to read the tea leaves and take a decision”.
The rules governing the provision of ELA are opaque but require the central bank to assess that recipient lenders are solvent.
Since Greek banks hold sizeable amounts of government bonds — which are routinely pledged to the ECB as collateral — defaulting on them would make it hard for policy makers in Frankfurt to conclude that Greek lenders could stand on their own feet.
There could, in theory, be other options. These include a bail-in of bondholders and depositors to strengthen the capital buffer of Greek banks; or a eurozone-wide guarantee on the Greek banking system. However, these would be either difficult to enact domestically or rely on the goodwill of international partners, who stand to shoulder the brunt of a default.
Were the ECB to pull the plug on ELA, the government would be left with no option but to impose capital controls and print “new drachmas” to stem an inevitable bank run.
While exit from the monetary union is illegal under EU law, it would nevertheless become a reality.

Ciao,
non so se è stato postato, ma se ne è parlato (comunque molto interessante)
Si è discusso anche degli eventuali risvolti (SD-D- o unchanged) che un non-pagamento alla data prestabilita all'IMF potrebbe avere sulle agenzie di rating e su eventuali altri problemini (es. cross default, ELA).

A quanto è quotata l'eventualità : non-pagamento alla data prestabilita all'IMF + referendum ?
 
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FNAIOS

Seriamente, una cosa mi chiedo: dopo tutto l'ottimismo profuso, i progressi dichiarati, l'accordo previsto entro pochi giorni... con che faccia potrebbero mai comunicare il fallimento delle trattative? Con la faccia di chi non capisce un ***** del mondo in cui vive?

Dopo tutto l'ottimismo profuso i dati sul PIL, ecc. ecc., il mercato greco ha perso il 50% del suo valore circa e io + del 25% del gain. Questo ovviamente ha cambiato lievemente la strategia che adesso è molto più accorta e preferisco guadagnare meno piuttosto che restituire.

P.S.
Magari è il momento di un accordo sul filo di lana, non è da escludersi, ma se non vedo mi dispiace ma non credo, come sopra.
 
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