GiveMeLeverage
& I will remove the world
Wolfango Piccoli, analyst at Teneo Intelligence, reckons that Alexis Tsipras has four options following the mini-rebellion at last night’s vote over his reform plan:
1) He could resign and trigger snap polls after reaching a deal with his lenders. This would leave Greece in limbo for around 3-4 weeks, a development that would raise significant concerns among the lenders and complicate meeting the relevant targets (milestones) attached to the likely sub-tranches of a new bailout.
2) He could decide to tackle decisively the situation by breaking with the dissenters and replacing those MPs who voted “No” or abstained, including the two ministers and the parliament speaker. This could be achieved by enforcing SYRIZA’s internal rule forcing (on paper) MPs to give up their seats after leaving the parliamentary group.
3) He could seek to enlarge the governing coalition by including one or more of the opposition parties, notably POTAMI and Pasok. The creation of a wider coalition would reassure the lenders but it is, in our view, the least likely of the available options.
4) Finally, he could decide to move cautiously (as he has done in the past) by replacing only the two MPs who voted “No”, meaning that an unstable balance would prevail in the short-term, at least.
But whatever Tsipras chooses, there’s a high chance of another general election this year, Wolf adds.
1) He could resign and trigger snap polls after reaching a deal with his lenders. This would leave Greece in limbo for around 3-4 weeks, a development that would raise significant concerns among the lenders and complicate meeting the relevant targets (milestones) attached to the likely sub-tranches of a new bailout.
2) He could decide to tackle decisively the situation by breaking with the dissenters and replacing those MPs who voted “No” or abstained, including the two ministers and the parliament speaker. This could be achieved by enforcing SYRIZA’s internal rule forcing (on paper) MPs to give up their seats after leaving the parliamentary group.
3) He could seek to enlarge the governing coalition by including one or more of the opposition parties, notably POTAMI and Pasok. The creation of a wider coalition would reassure the lenders but it is, in our view, the least likely of the available options.
4) Finally, he could decide to move cautiously (as he has done in the past) by replacing only the two MPs who voted “No”, meaning that an unstable balance would prevail in the short-term, at least.
But whatever Tsipras chooses, there’s a high chance of another general election this year, Wolf adds.
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