Greek Banks Sign On to Bond Buyback
By LANDON THOMAS Jr.
Published: December 7, 2012
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LONDON — Greece moved a step closer to completing a complex debt-reduction deal Friday, when the country’s largest banks said they had agreed to sell their discounted bonds back to the government.
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The buyback, which aims to trim about €20 billion, or nearly $26 billion, from Greece’s staggering €323 billion debt, was scheduled to close at the end of the day on Friday. But people involved in the transaction said they did not expect an official announcement of the results until early next week.
Greece’s so-called troika of international overseers has said that meaningful participation by bondholders in the buyback program would be crucial to the nearly bankrupt country’s securing more than €40 billion in the next installment of bailout loans that Athens desperately needs. Greece needs the money to recapitalize its banks, service the interest on its debt and pay billions of euros in unpaid bills.
“It looks as if they will hit the higher range of their expectations,” Dimitris Drakopoulos, a sovereign-debt expert at Nomura in London, said of the buyback.
To be sure, bankers involved in the transaction say it is too early for Greece to declare victory in the buyback. Given the political and financial sensitivities involved, they say, last-minute snags are still possible.
“It is not done until it’s done,” said one banker involved in the transaction, who was not authorized to speak publicly. “But I am reservedly optimistic.”
But the better-than-expected participation of hedge funds, which bankers say have sold 50 percent to 70 percent of their €24 billion in bonds, together with the involvement of the banks, increased the chances that the buyback will succeed.
The Greek banks represent one of the larger groups invested in the country’s bonds, holding about €17 billion of the €63 billion in private-sector debt that remains in circulation after Greece’s most recent debt restructuring.
That write-down was overseen by the so-called troika that continues to determine when and if Greece receives each round of bailout money: the
European Commission, the
European Central Bank and the
International Monetary Fund.
The combined participation of Greek banks and foreign investors could well be enough to reach the goal of €20 billion in net debt reduction that Greece and the troika had set for the buyout. To reach that goal, Greece would need to buy back bonds totaling €30 billion in face value, because the country has borrowed €10 billion from Europe to conduct the buy-back program.
The I.M.F., for one, has said it will continue to provide additional bailout loans to Greece if the buyback is successful and the country continues to reduce its debt load toward sustainable levels.
Analysts say that while many hedge funds were indicating earlier this past week that they might hold out for a higher price, tough talk by government officials and bankers running the transaction persuaded many investors to take their profits now — rather than possibly being forced to absorb losses later.
Since the government announced Monday a price range of 30 to 40 cents on the euro, the bonds have increased in value, hitting a high of 35 cents late this week. Investors say that the increased demand is coming from new buyers who are snapping up bonds with the view that they will push even higher once the buyback is complete and Greece’s financial position improves accordingly.
“We are seeing a lot of real money buying these bonds now,” said one large investor who had participated in the exchange but who was not authorized to speak publicly. “I am not surprised. Things are finally improving in Greece.”