Greek banks' potential capital shortfalls set to be reduced by more than 2.5 bln
Greek media reported on Tuesday that the Ministry of Finance (MoF) will soon table in Parliament a draft bill which will allow the conversion of Greek banks’ Deferred Tax Asset (DTA) into tax credit.
The new legal framework has to be approved by the European Banking Authority (EBA) by September 30 in order for the resulting capital benefits to banks to be incorporated in the ECB-EBA stress tests.
According to our initial estimate a month ago, the capital cushion would reach 2.3 billion euros. That projection was based on the amount of DTA (11.48 billion) recognized in banks’ Q1 financial statements multiplied by 20 percent.
This percentage is equivalent to a 2-year phase-out (10 percent for each of the next two years), and the resulting figure is (currently) not recognized as Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital.
The new legislation related to the conversion of DTA to tax credit, which is in line with that applied in other European countries, will allow Greek banks to fully recognize DTA as CET1 capital
Ahead of the upcoming amendment, Greek banks recognized additional DTA in their Q2 financial statements published at the end of August. The current outstanding figure for DTA amounts to 13.4 billion euros, 1.92 higher than that reported in Q1.
This amount is almost equally split among the four systemic Greek banks. Alpha recognized 3.23 billion in Q2, Eurobank 3.32, NBG 3.58 and Piraeus 3.26 billion.
Following the recognition of additional DTA in Q2, our estimate for the banks’ capital benefit rises to 2.68 billion from 2.3 billion a month ago. Citing bank sources, local media indicate that the capital cushion for Greek banks would range between 2.5 and 3 billion.
At the end of Q2, the Basel III Q2 CET1 ratios of Greek banks stood at: 16.3 percent for Alpha, 17.8 percent for Eurobank, 16.2 percent for NBG and 15 percent for Piraeus.
Although the DTA amendment is capital positive, the treatment of non-performing and restructured loans as well as other critical assumptions to be adopted remain the key factors that will determine Greek banks’ capital shortfalls in the ECB-EBA stress tests. -
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