Obbligazioni societarie HIGH YIELD e oltre, verso frontiere inesplorate - Vol. 1

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Update: Wind Hellas Creditors Set To Stop Trading After Results

First Published Monday, 23 August 2010 06:17 pm - © 2010 Dow Jones


By Irene Chapple
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
LONDON -(Dow Jones)- A group of Wind Hellas' senior creditors are ramping up efforts to take control of the company following its second quarter results Monday by preparing to quit trading its bonds, according to three sources close to the situation.
The shift to go "restricted" will be requested late Tuesday by a group of senior secured bondholders. The move means they agree not to trade the Wind Hellas bonds in return for access to more detailed information on the company.
It reflects a step up in the Wind Hellas sale process, which was triggered in July after the Greek government introduced austerity measures in the wake of the country's sovereign debt crisis.
The company, which is owned by Weather Investments, an investment vehicle majority-owned by Egyptian entrepreneur Naguib Sawiris, Monday reported second quarter results showing revenue dropped 27.5% year-on-year to EUR202.3 million. Adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA), showed a 52.4% drop year- on-year, to EUR39.1 million.
In a statement the company said: "these results were impacted by the prevailing very difficult Greek macro-economic context, the roll-out of the government's austerity measures and a challenging competitive environment."
The bonds traded flat to slightly higher on the 2Q10 results, indicated at 30.5/32.5% of face value late Monday.
Bidders for the company have been whittled down to around four investment consortia, a group of senior lenders and Weather Investments. They are now undertaking due diligence on the company as they work towards a final offer deadline of Sept. 15. A preferred offer is expected to be announced by Oct. 14.
Early indications suggest that the senior noteholders, which include hedge funds Anchorage Advisors, Mount Kellett Capital Management, Taconic Capital, Angelo Gordon, and Eton Park Capital Management, are set to take control through a debt-for-equity swap, potentially in partnership with an investor prepared to inject cash.
The deal could be sealed by a prepack procedure, a U.K. insolvency process where a business on the brink of insolvency is sold on without liabilities such as debt.
The latest twist comes after the senior noteholders accepted a standstill agreement July 21. This meant they agreed to forego payments due to them in June and July.
The agreement, which lasts until Nov. 5, deferred a EUR17.5 million payment on its revolving credit facility and a payment to one of its banks, which were due July 15.
It comes after last year's debt restructuring, in which Wind Hellas' parent company, Hellas II, went through a prepack sale in the U.K. that saw it declared insolvent and placed in administration, with EUR1.17 billion of subordinated bonds wiped from its balance sheet.
-By Irene Chapple, Dow Jones Newswires; 44 207 842 9291; [email protected]
 
S&P warns of huge 'haircuts' if Eircom defaults




By Emmet Oliver Deputy Business Editor

Monday August 23 2010

Some debt holders in Eircom could receive as little as 10 cent in the euro if the telecoms company defaults on its €3.6bn of debts, according to an analysis by a leading ratings agency.
Standard & Poor's (S&P) has done a 'recovery analysis' on the debt held by the parent companies that own Eircom.
While senior secured debt is likely to have recovery rates of between 90 and 100pc in the event of a default, debt holders further down the credit list could be facing big haircuts.
The second-lien loan, known as loan D, is only likely to leave holders with a recovery of between 10pc and 30pc of their principal.
The holders of a €425m payment in kind (PIK) loan would be facing the most severe haircuts. "The recovery rating on this debt is six, indicating our expectation of negligible recovery (0pc to 10pc) in the event of a payment default,'' state the company's analysts.
Eircom strongly rejects any suggestion that it could default on its debt load. However, speculators in the market who hold bond insurance -- known as credit default swaps (CDS) -- take a different view and this has sent the value of CDS contracts soaring in recent months.
S&P gives Eircom a valuation of €3bn in a distressed environment. It says that while Eircom has leading market positions and a "satisfactory business risk profile'', a default from excessive leverage cannot be ruled out entirely.
Revenues
While Eircom is not in default on any loans, the pressure is building because the company's revenues and earnings are falling, potentially triggering a breach of its loan covenants.
S&P says: "We think revenues will continue to fall in the coming quarters as difficult economic conditions are likely to continue. This will compound structural declines in fixed telephony revenues."
Offsetting this is Eircom's ambitious cost-reduction programme, which has been noted by the ratings agencies.
The pension deficit at the company has also been tackled in recent months, but this has had little impact on the debt ratios, the agency points out.
"Eircom's cash-generating ability is likely to remain constrained because of its high interest burden, a difficult operating and competitive environment, restructuring payments and significant capital expenditures,'' said the latest note.
While the company is facing a serious debt headache, the liquidity position of the company is strong, states the agency.
Eircom has €267m of unrestricted cash to call on in case of emergencies and another €123m in an undrawn credit facility. The debt problems facing the company are more long term, the agency accepts.
It points out that the undrawn facilities and cash cover "modest debt maturities'' of €44m in the next financial year and €88m in financial year 2012. Eircom's financial year ends in June each year.
The company seems unlikely to get any relief from the ratings agencies in the foreseeable future. S&P concludes: "At this stage, we deem the chances of a higher rating in the future to be remote, as this would likely require the removal of covenant pressure on a sustained basis."
- Emmet Oliver Deputy Business Editor
Irish Independent
 
Avevo notato tempo fa questo commento di Imark. Come vedete delle obbligazioni non cortissime di Buzzi? Mi pare una società abbastanza solida, ma vorrei conferme o commenti in merito!
Grazie mille ;)

Stavo osservando anch'io buzzi e lafarge per forse sceglierne una. Attualmente mi ispira di più la buzzi sia per la scandenza sia perchè non dovrebbe divenire downgradata rischio che invece corre lafarge. Il prezzo però è al momento un pò altino

Bene per le prime, credo anch'io siano un po' care (come quasi tutto il resto)

Su Lafarge ho postato un commento di recente, visto che mi avevano chiesto anche in mp, e c'è da rilevare che la società ha dichiarato a fine luglio di voler fare il possibile per evitare il downgrade e la perdita dell'IG, sia effettuando nuove cessioni, sia varando un'altra tornata di taglio dei costi.

http://www.investireoggi.it/forum/m...ials-construction-companies-eu-vt40755-4.html

Ora, preso atto che c'è l'intenzione di Lafarge di provarci, (e quindi che la società si è impegnata con i mercati del debito alla conservazione dell'IG), ci sono i rischi di esecuzione della strategia, nel senso che - in caso di nuovi "episodi" della crisi - la possibilità di effettuare dismissioni significative viene meno, il fatturato cala, il debito ed il leverage aumentano, e dopo due piani di tagli ai costi, varare il terzo potrebbe essere complicato...

Dovesse mai andare così nei prossimi mesi, un bond BB+ a scadenza 2019 che rende lordo il 5,3% (appartenendo l'emittente ad un comparto ciclico, peraltro) si deve ancora vedere...

Quindi metterei in conto un rischio volatilità piuttosto elevato... sono molto incerto anch'io se tenere o vendere...
 
Ultima modifica:
Ma c'è l'hai in portafoglio lafarge? E italcementi 2020 che ne pensi, ha come lafarge una clausola di credit protection.


Bene per le prime, credo anch'io siano un po' care (come quasi tutto il resto)

Su Lafarge ho postato un commento di recente, visto che mi avevano chiesto anche in mp, e c'è da rilevare che la società ha dichiarato a fine luglio di voler fare il possibile per evitare il downgrade e la perdita dell'IG, sia effettuando nuove cessioni, sia varando un'altra tornata di taglio dei costi.

http://www.investireoggi.it/forum/m...ials-construction-companies-eu-vt40755-4.html

Ora, preso atto che c'è l'intenzione di Lafarge di provarci, (e quindi che la società si è impegnata con i mercati del debito alla conservazione dell'IG), ci sono i rischi di esecuzione della strategia, nel senso che - in caso di nuovi "episodi" della crisi - la possibilità di effettuare dismissioni significative viene meno, il fatturato cala, il debito ed il leverage aumentano, e dopo due piani di tagli ai costi, varare il terzo potrebbe essere complicato...

Dovesse mai andare così nei prossimi mesi, un bond BB+ a scadenza 2019 che rende lordo il 5,3% (appartenendo l'emittente ad un comparto ciclo, peraltro) si deve ancora vedere...

Quindi metterei in conto un rischio volatilità piuttosto elevato... sono molto incerto anch'io se tenere o vendere...
 
Ma c'è l'hai in portafoglio lafarge? E italcementi 2020 che ne pensi, ha come lafarge una clausola di credit protection.

Sì, ce l'ho... e ora sono in gain sul nominale, da non crederci ... :D

Al tempo in cui lo presi, l'anno scorso avevo valutato sulla scorta del comportamento di alcuni pari rating che potesse arrivare a 104 ... poi la Grecia ha suonato la campanella di fine ricreazione, ed è sceso, anche perché le acquisizioni fatte poco prima della crisi sono state pagate care, ed il debito incombe, mentre il fatturato stagna (se va bene).

Si è recuperato sul versante del taglio dei costi, dove sono stati abbastanza veloci, finora, nel raggiungere i target prefissati...

Ora vediamo, continuo a pensare che non defaulterà, ma, dovesse perdere l'IG nel 2011, voglio vedere se continua a rendere il 5,25% lordo a scadenza... non esiste, dovrebbe dare almeno un 7-8% per esprimere un risk/reward decoroso... ;)

Nella mia graduatoria, Buzzi, Lafarge, Italcementi, nell'ordine.
 
Un aggiornamento sulla vicenda, che sembrerebbe avviata sul medesimo binario dello scorso anno, con la sola differenza che la Wind Hellas sarebbe rilevata dai creditori senior secured, che nell'operazione subirebbero a propria volta un haircut rispetto al nominale del debito.

Se così fosse, diviene arduo ipotizzare un recovery di sorta per classi di obbligazionisti di rango inferiore.

DEALTALK-Sawiris faces new creditor tussle over Wind Hellas

* Wind Hellas in second restructuring in one year * Sawiris aims to keep control of group
* Senior lenders gear up to oppose Sawiris plans
* Lenders could take control in debt-for-equity swap
* Junior lenders set to lose out again


By Sarah White
LONDON, Aug 26 (Reuters) - Egyptian billionaire Naguib Sawiris will struggle to pull the same rabbit from the hat that last year left him in control of ailing Greek telecoms group Wind Hellas [WINVTH.UL] at the expense of creditors.
Greece's third-largest mobile phone operator needs new money barely nine months after junior lenders lost more than 1 billion euros ($1.3 billion) of debt in an earlier restructuring, hit by economic turmoil in the country.

This time round, sources familiar with the situation say a bondholder revolt threatens to derail plans by Weather Investments -- the vehicle through which Sawiris owns Wind -- to stay in charge of the company, which is up for sale.
"They are basically having the same discussions as we had a year ago, which is likely to see the owner put in a tiny amount of equity and wiping out the least secure debt," said one of Wind Hellas's former junior note holders.
Wind Hellas declined to comment.

Weather was able to buy back the telecoms group last year, as well as shave off 1.1 billions euros of debt in what is known as a pre-pack administration -- a sale with a twist, in which the company is bought out, minus a chunk of debt.
The pre-pack deal was possible only because Wind Hellas's parent company, Wind Hellas II, had set up an office in London, leading out-of-pocket lenders to publicly blast the UK as a "bankruptcy brothel".

Incumbent owners often become the winning bidders in pre-pack administrations, and Weather was able to buy back the telecoms group, putting in 125 million euros.

The group, which boasts 5.5 million customers in Greece, is up for sale again, after it was forced to secure a standstill with lenders in July to avoid missing debt payments.

OTHER FRONTRUNNERS

But this time, senior lenders are fast becoming the frontrunners in the race to take over the company. Just as Weather did, the group of senior secured lenders would have then to fight it out with investors further down the creditor hierarchy.

Unsecured creditors -- who are lower down in the capital hierarchy and are holding 355 million euros of debt -- are likely to lose out in any new restructuring negotiations, according to sources close to the lenders.

"The value breaks with the senior secured lenders," said a source close to the talks. This would mean that the senior lenders also might need to foot some of the bill.

But they are likely to be less amenable than ever before to a deal with current owner Weather.
Senior secured lenders hold the biggest portion of Wind Hellas debt through just over 1.2 billion euros of bonds -- making them key backers of any restructuring proposal -- and their bid looks serious.

By Wednesday, a committee of these creditors was set to give up trading their Wind Hellas bonds in order to gain access to private information about the company, the official close to the restructuring said.

Another source close to noteholders added that senior secured creditors were in "the best position to take control", possibly through a debt-to-equity swap, and potentially alongside a cash injection from a new investor.

But there are four other investment consortia vying for Wind Hellas ahead of a Sept. 15 deadline, the source said, and senior secured lenders might also end up backing one of those if they don't want full ownership of Wind Hellas.

But another protracted showdown with unhappy creditors is almost certainly on the cards, with any sale, according to the same source, likely to be completed through yet another pre-pack administration. (Additional reporting by Simon Meads, Editing by Douwe Miedema and Will Waterman) ($1=.7874 Euro)
 
Singolare l'andamento dei prezzi del bond 8,5% 2013 di Hellas Telecom III di cui si è parlato qui, che su Xtrakter, riporto il dato di venerdì, resterebbero ancorati su un bid ask di 3 - 5 con un last segnalato a 4, mentre su Francoforte risultano poste in bid ask a 0,1 - 0,4 (con 100k nominali esposti in denaro ed altrettanti in lettera) e un nominale di fine giornata di 4.4 mln euro scambiati che tuttavia, a quei prezzi (l'ultimo scambio è stato fatto a 0,1, con 800.000 euro di nominale acquistati al prezzo di 1.100 euro) fanno pochi spiccioli...
 
wind hellas senior unsecured

Un aggiornamento sulla vicenda, che sembrerebbe avviata sul medesimo binario dello scorso anno, con la sola differenza che la Wind Hellas sarebbe rilevata dai creditori senior secured, che nell'operazione subirebbero a propria volta un haircut rispetto al nominale del debito.

Se così fosse, diviene arduo ipotizzare un recovery di sorta per classi di obbligazionisti di rango inferiore.

DEALTALK-Sawiris faces new creditor tussle over Wind Hellas

* Wind Hellas in second restructuring in one year * Sawiris aims to keep control of group
* Senior lenders gear up to oppose Sawiris plans
* Lenders could take control in debt-for-equity swap
* Junior lenders set to lose out again


By Sarah White
LONDON, Aug 26 (Reuters) - Egyptian billionaire Naguib Sawiris will struggle to pull the same rabbit from the hat that last year left him in control of ailing Greek telecoms group Wind Hellas [WINVTH.UL] at the expense of creditors.
Greece's third-largest mobile phone operator needs new money barely nine months after junior lenders lost more than 1 billion euros ($1.3 billion) of debt in an earlier restructuring, hit by economic turmoil in the country.

This time round, sources familiar with the situation say a bondholder revolt threatens to derail plans by Weather Investments -- the vehicle through which Sawiris owns Wind -- to stay in charge of the company, which is up for sale.
"They are basically having the same discussions as we had a year ago, which is likely to see the owner put in a tiny amount of equity and wiping out the least secure debt," said one of Wind Hellas's former junior note holders.
Wind Hellas declined to comment.

Weather was able to buy back the telecoms group last year, as well as shave off 1.1 billions euros of debt in what is known as a pre-pack administration -- a sale with a twist, in which the company is bought out, minus a chunk of debt.
The pre-pack deal was possible only because Wind Hellas's parent company, Wind Hellas II, had set up an office in London, leading out-of-pocket lenders to publicly blast the UK as a "bankruptcy brothel".

Incumbent owners often become the winning bidders in pre-pack administrations, and Weather was able to buy back the telecoms group, putting in 125 million euros.

The group, which boasts 5.5 million customers in Greece, is up for sale again, after it was forced to secure a standstill with lenders in July to avoid missing debt payments.

OTHER FRONTRUNNERS

But this time, senior lenders are fast becoming the frontrunners in the race to take over the company. Just as Weather did, the group of senior secured lenders would have then to fight it out with investors further down the creditor hierarchy.

Unsecured creditors -- who are lower down in the capital hierarchy and are holding 355 million euros of debt -- are likely to lose out in any new restructuring negotiations, according to sources close to the lenders.

"The value breaks with the senior secured lenders," said a source close to the talks. This would mean that the senior lenders also might need to foot some of the bill.

But they are likely to be less amenable than ever before to a deal with current owner Weather.
Senior secured lenders hold the biggest portion of Wind Hellas debt through just over 1.2 billion euros of bonds -- making them key backers of any restructuring proposal -- and their bid looks serious.

By Wednesday, a committee of these creditors was set to give up trading their Wind Hellas bonds in order to gain access to private information about the company, the official close to the restructuring said.

Another source close to noteholders added that senior secured creditors were in "the best position to take control", possibly through a debt-to-equity swap, and potentially alongside a cash injection from a new investor.

But there are four other investment consortia vying for Wind Hellas ahead of a Sept. 15 deadline, the source said, and senior secured lenders might also end up backing one of those if they don't want full ownership of Wind Hellas.

But another protracted showdown with unhappy creditors is almost certainly on the cards, with any sale, according to the same source, likely to be completed through yet another pre-pack administration. (Additional reporting by Simon Meads, Editing by Douwe Miedema and Will Waterman) ($1=.7874 Euro)

:ciao:Perche dici che sarebbe arduo ipotizzare un recover per i senior unsecured?...mi sembra che questo bond holders essendo appunto senior hanno diritti di votare contro o iin favore alla restructuring...
 
:ciao:Perche dici che sarebbe arduo ipotizzare un recover per i senior unsecured?...mi sembra che questo bond holders essendo appunto senior hanno diritti di votare contro o iin favore alla restructuring...

Se realmente non c'è recovery pieno per i secured, che vanno a formulare una propria offerta di acquisto nell'ambito di una procedure d'asta, e gli unsecured sono una minoranza rispetto al totale del debito senior outstanding (la tesi sostenuta dall'articolo) in effetti mi sembra che lo spazio per un recupero sia modesto.

Il loro voto non dovrebbe essere in grado di incidere se c'è una cordata di senior secured che rileva la Wind Hellas accettando di praticare un haircut sul proprio nominale.

I secured non hanno interesse a riconoscere qualcosa agli unsecured, e se il voto di questi ultimi non gli è necessario per il deal, perché dovrebbero ?

Questa la tesi grosso modo espressa dall'articolo, ma direi che mi torna... ;)
 
Se realmente non c'è recovery pieno per i secured, che vanno a formulare una propria offerta di acquisto nell'ambito di una procedure d'asta, e gli unsecured sono una minoranza rispetto al totale del debito senior outstanding (la tesi sostenuta dall'articolo) in effetti mi sembra che lo spazio per un recupero sia modesto.

Il loro voto non dovrebbe essere in grado di incidere se c'è una cordata di senior secured che rileva la Wind Hellas accettando di praticare un haircut sul proprio nominale.

I secured non hanno interesse a riconoscere qualcosa agli unsecured, e se il voto di questi ultimi non gli è necessario per il deal, perché dovrebbero ?

Questa la tesi grosso modo espressa dall'articolo, ma direi che mi torna... ;)

Recovery pieno no di siccuro,pero la mia tesi e che un offerta minima per gli unsecured ci sia quanto basta per evitare di andare a corte dover li anche i secured rischieranno che sawiris abbia meglio ancora una volta...
 
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