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ma scusate un titolo come fondiaria è da mib30?
Parmalat (PLT) I promessi sposi: Lucia Parmalat e Renzo Lactalis (4 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione salcatal
- Data di Inizio
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From Simon Black of Sovereign Man
While Greece burns, Spain test drives a post-euro future
I’ve stopped briefly for a quick lunch en route to Andorra, which is a scenic three hour drive due north from Barcelona. The spot that I picked to stop and write to you is absolutely stunning.
When I first started traveling years ago, I fell in love with Barcelona and the Catalan region of Spain. Part of it is the beauty, and part of it is the area’s staunch independence.
In a way, Catalonia is much like Quebec in relation to Canada– these people have their own language, their own culture, and they don’t take kindly to those bureaucrats in Madrid telling them what to do.
I tend to pass a fair amount of time in Spain and usually find myself here for odds and ends business matters. The last time was almost precisely a year ago when Matt and I were attending the most fantastically bizarre function at a remote, mountainous monastery in Catalonia.
The rest of the group consisted of Russian gangsters, sycophantic European businessmen, jet set playboy types, African royalty, and senior leaders of splinter Christian and Muslim sects.
Supposedly it had something to do with diplomatic positions for a government in exile, though to this day I have no idea how the costumes, chanting, and rituals fit in. Think ‘Eyes Wide Shut’ without the sex.
Anyhow, since I arrived to Spain a few days ago from London, I’ve been sniffing around to get a sense of how Spain’s crisis is unfolding. We see the news clips and YouTube videos of protests, of governments collapsing, of soaring unemployment, but I wanted to see for myself how feels on the ground, and how things have changed over the last year.
The most startling change that I’ve noticed, without doubt, is the inflation. Literally everything I’ve looked at– food prices at the local market, restaurant tabs, local electronics, highway tolls, raw material construction costs, mobile phone tariffs, taxi fare, etc. are much more expensive, to the tune of 10% to 25%.
So much for the theory that an economic slowdown would decrease prices.
John Maynard Keynes, who is consistently held up as the father of modern macroeconomics, suggested in his General Theory that keeping interest rates low and government spending high in order to sustain a boom (or get an economy moving again) would likely NOT result in inflation.
This has been the underpinning economic theory behind worldwide government efforts since the Lehman collapse… it’s the old “spend your way out of recession” play. Politicians and central bankers alike seem to believe, as Keynes did, that inflation is a low risk consequence.
Spain is one of many examples that proves this theory to be utter nonsense. Everyone on the ground knows that inflation is high; local newspapers are even running stories about how to best deal with inflation and preserve your savings.
As an aside, I should mention that I read one such article in a popular newspaper called Money Market in which the reporter interviewed several top fund managers and asked each of them how individuals should preserve their savings.
Most of them responded with the same dangerous herd mentality– buy stocks. How many recommended gold or silver? Zero. This is a bullish sign for precious metals.
Among other things I have noticed is the decline in service. Part of the reason Spain’s unemployment rate is so high is because it is so costly and bureaucratic to keep employees. Payroll taxes are quite high, so businesses have laid off their workers en masse.
You notice it instantly when you try to buy something at a retail shop or restaurant; there may be one person working for dozens of customers, and it takes forever to get anything done.
The other thing that has me quite concerned about Spain is the police presence. I don’t think I ever went 5 blocks in Barcelona without seeing a cop on the street. What’s more, they don’t just stand there waiting for something to happen, they’re actively going around harassing people.
My assessment is that the government is intentionally having the police turn up the heat on their intimidation tactics in hopes of squashing any future rebellion before it happens. They want to instill a sense of fear in the society to keep everyone quiet.
On that note, the most interesting part of this trip so far has been passing through small towns outside of Barcelona that are starting to circulate pesetas again– Spain’s pre-euro currency.
Apparently quite a few people have woken up to the euro’s fundamental weakness and begun circulating an alternative within their local, internal economies. The post-euro future is already here in Spain, it’s only a matter of time before the rest of the continent catches up.
Overall, the situation in Spain is not as dire as in Greece, which is literally burning at the moment. But Spain is running out of cash quickly, and its Keynesian bubble deflating rapidly. There will be a time, probably this year, when the country will need to secure emergency funding just to keep the lights on, and that’s when things will really start to fall apart.
While Greece burns, Spain test drives a post-euro future
I’ve stopped briefly for a quick lunch en route to Andorra, which is a scenic three hour drive due north from Barcelona. The spot that I picked to stop and write to you is absolutely stunning.
In a way, Catalonia is much like Quebec in relation to Canada– these people have their own language, their own culture, and they don’t take kindly to those bureaucrats in Madrid telling them what to do.
I tend to pass a fair amount of time in Spain and usually find myself here for odds and ends business matters. The last time was almost precisely a year ago when Matt and I were attending the most fantastically bizarre function at a remote, mountainous monastery in Catalonia.
The rest of the group consisted of Russian gangsters, sycophantic European businessmen, jet set playboy types, African royalty, and senior leaders of splinter Christian and Muslim sects.
Supposedly it had something to do with diplomatic positions for a government in exile, though to this day I have no idea how the costumes, chanting, and rituals fit in. Think ‘Eyes Wide Shut’ without the sex.
Anyhow, since I arrived to Spain a few days ago from London, I’ve been sniffing around to get a sense of how Spain’s crisis is unfolding. We see the news clips and YouTube videos of protests, of governments collapsing, of soaring unemployment, but I wanted to see for myself how feels on the ground, and how things have changed over the last year.
The most startling change that I’ve noticed, without doubt, is the inflation. Literally everything I’ve looked at– food prices at the local market, restaurant tabs, local electronics, highway tolls, raw material construction costs, mobile phone tariffs, taxi fare, etc. are much more expensive, to the tune of 10% to 25%.
So much for the theory that an economic slowdown would decrease prices.
John Maynard Keynes, who is consistently held up as the father of modern macroeconomics, suggested in his General Theory that keeping interest rates low and government spending high in order to sustain a boom (or get an economy moving again) would likely NOT result in inflation.
This has been the underpinning economic theory behind worldwide government efforts since the Lehman collapse… it’s the old “spend your way out of recession” play. Politicians and central bankers alike seem to believe, as Keynes did, that inflation is a low risk consequence.
Spain is one of many examples that proves this theory to be utter nonsense. Everyone on the ground knows that inflation is high; local newspapers are even running stories about how to best deal with inflation and preserve your savings.
As an aside, I should mention that I read one such article in a popular newspaper called Money Market in which the reporter interviewed several top fund managers and asked each of them how individuals should preserve their savings.
Most of them responded with the same dangerous herd mentality– buy stocks. How many recommended gold or silver? Zero. This is a bullish sign for precious metals.
Among other things I have noticed is the decline in service. Part of the reason Spain’s unemployment rate is so high is because it is so costly and bureaucratic to keep employees. Payroll taxes are quite high, so businesses have laid off their workers en masse.
You notice it instantly when you try to buy something at a retail shop or restaurant; there may be one person working for dozens of customers, and it takes forever to get anything done.
The other thing that has me quite concerned about Spain is the police presence. I don’t think I ever went 5 blocks in Barcelona without seeing a cop on the street. What’s more, they don’t just stand there waiting for something to happen, they’re actively going around harassing people.
My assessment is that the government is intentionally having the police turn up the heat on their intimidation tactics in hopes of squashing any future rebellion before it happens. They want to instill a sense of fear in the society to keep everyone quiet.
On that note, the most interesting part of this trip so far has been passing through small towns outside of Barcelona that are starting to circulate pesetas again– Spain’s pre-euro currency.
Apparently quite a few people have woken up to the euro’s fundamental weakness and begun circulating an alternative within their local, internal economies. The post-euro future is already here in Spain, it’s only a matter of time before the rest of the continent catches up.
Overall, the situation in Spain is not as dire as in Greece, which is literally burning at the moment. But Spain is running out of cash quickly, and its Keynesian bubble deflating rapidly. There will be a time, probably this year, when the country will need to secure emergency funding just to keep the lights on, and that’s when things will really start to fall apart.
salcatal
Come i Panda
Buongiorno.
Sono molto preoccupato.
Si sta preparando una tempesta perfetta, nervi saldi.
A cosa mi riferisco?
Lo sapete.
Già ho avuto modo di scrivere che Tremonti aveva l'ambizione di essere il nuovo Amato, cioè l'uomo che salvò l'Italia.
E che per fare quest'operazione ha stretto un patto di ferro con i banchieri e, quindi, con i poteri forti ad essi legati a doppio filo.
Ma per ripetere quell'operazione ha bisogno che si scateni la tempesta sull'Italia.
E Draghi, che all'epoca fu protagonista delle svendite statuali, lo sa e forse per questo ha imposto alle banche di ricapitalizzarsi.
Ma lo sa e lo ha capito anche Berlusconi.
E' chiaro a tutti che Tremonti rema contro l'Italia.
Ma Berlusconi si trova in una situazione molto difficile in quanto sa anche che cacciare Tremonti, come sarebbe giusto fare, sarebbe il segnale che tutti aspettano del via libera alla tempesta.
Situazione molto, ma molto delicata.
Come andrà a finire lo sapremo tra non molto, temo.
Ma attenzione e mantenersi liquidi, se possibile perchè potrebbero esserci occasioni anche sui titoli di Stato.
Sono molto preoccupato.
Si sta preparando una tempesta perfetta, nervi saldi.
A cosa mi riferisco?
Lo sapete.
Già ho avuto modo di scrivere che Tremonti aveva l'ambizione di essere il nuovo Amato, cioè l'uomo che salvò l'Italia.
E che per fare quest'operazione ha stretto un patto di ferro con i banchieri e, quindi, con i poteri forti ad essi legati a doppio filo.
Ma per ripetere quell'operazione ha bisogno che si scateni la tempesta sull'Italia.
E Draghi, che all'epoca fu protagonista delle svendite statuali, lo sa e forse per questo ha imposto alle banche di ricapitalizzarsi.
Ma lo sa e lo ha capito anche Berlusconi.
E' chiaro a tutti che Tremonti rema contro l'Italia.
Ma Berlusconi si trova in una situazione molto difficile in quanto sa anche che cacciare Tremonti, come sarebbe giusto fare, sarebbe il segnale che tutti aspettano del via libera alla tempesta.
Situazione molto, ma molto delicata.
Come andrà a finire lo sapremo tra non molto, temo.
Ma attenzione e mantenersi liquidi, se possibile perchè potrebbero esserci occasioni anche sui titoli di Stato.
pecora rosa
Forumer attivo
Buongiorno a tutti
Aspettavo proprio buone nuove eh
Aspettavo proprio buone nuove eh
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analisi tanto perspicace quanto preoccupante...
ma mi sorge un dubbio: tremonti diciamo che ha stretto un patto con le banche... però perchè gli ha tagliato proprio gli introiti dalla speculazione finanziaria (cioè se non ricordo male una buona parte dei risultati di uni veniva da li
)
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novellino
ps. abbiamo tremonti che cita Cipolla
Lo stupido fa male agli altri senza far bene a se stesso
Tremonti: mai avrei fatto cadere il governo - Corriere della Sera
Lo stupido fa male agli altri senza far bene a se stesso
Tremonti: mai avrei fatto cadere il governo - Corriere della Sera
salcatal
Come i Panda
analisi tanto perspicace quanto preoccupante...
ma mi sorge un dubbio: tremonti diciamo che ha stretto un patto con le banche... però perchè gli ha tagliato proprio gli introiti dalla speculazione finanziaria (cioè se non ricordo male una buona parte dei risultati di uni veniva da li
Tutte finte.
Penso che quella parte contro le banche gli sia stata imposta da qualcuno.
Se ricordate un ministro disse che avrebbero pagato le banche.
Ma Tremonti ha inanellato una serie di provvedimenti a favore delle banche, che io non ricordo nemmeno ai tempi del governo D'Alema.
Comunque leggete l'editoriale di Rizzo sul Corsera e capirete perchè scrivo quello.
Stamattina parlavo con mia moglie di questo scenario, poi ho comprato il giornale (BANCA INTESA) ed ecco confermata la tesi.
Inoltre il direttore del Tempo ha dichiarato l'altro giorno quanto sostengo da tempo, cioè che Tremonti gioca contro l'Italia.
Sechi e Crosetto parlano, ma Berlusconi pensa.
salcatal
Come i Panda
ps. abbiamo tremonti che cita Cipolla
Lo stupido fa male agli altri senza far bene a se stesso
Tremonti: mai avrei fatto cadere il governo - Corriere della Sera
Quello che è certo, leggendo la manovra, almeno da quello che emerge, è che Crosetto è stato fin troppo gentile.
Nemmeno una GOLDMAN SACHS short sui TDS italiani e sulle banche, avrebbe potuto immaginare di meglio.
Una manovra senza capo, nè coda, senza un filo conduttore, senza un'idea, insomma un palliativo da dare a un moribondo.
salcatal
Come i Panda
Intanto notate come SIEMENS ha recuperato interamente il 4 e rotti% dell'altro giorno.
E' la conferma della teoria che c'è coltello e coltello e che una volta capito che, con ragionevole probabilità, il coltello non taglia, conviene afferrarlo senza esitazioni.
Ovviamente su titoli come Siemens, su titoli come Danieli il rischio è molto maggiore.
E' la conferma della teoria che c'è coltello e coltello e che una volta capito che, con ragionevole probabilità, il coltello non taglia, conviene afferrarlo senza esitazioni.
Ovviamente su titoli come Siemens, su titoli come Danieli il rischio è molto maggiore.
salcatal
Come i Panda
Vedete a che livello di inciviltà arriva lo STATO ITALIANO, anche nelle piccole cose.
L'anno scorso ho fatto delle consulenze per la Procura di Napoli.
Liquidato il compenso è andato al pagamento a ottobre 2010.
Quando i fondi per i Consulenti erano esauriti e fin qui nulla di strano.
La cosa assurda è che ora stanno pagando regolarmente le consulenze liquidate nel 2011, mentre i fondi per pagare quelle del 2010 non ci sono ancora.
Questo è il trattamento che lo Stato riserva a chi lavora per lui, compito al quale nel mio caso, fra l'altro non ti puoi sottrarre.
Trattamento che giustifica, sarò duro ma è così, anche un pò di evasione e elusione.
Ps dico questo perchè stamattina sono andato a chiedere notizie, trovandomi in procura, e mi hanno detto che prima di settembre non se ne parla.
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