Obbligazioni valute high yield INDONESIA e Obbligazioni in rupie indonesiane

Rupia abbarbicata a quota 12.000

http://www.ebloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602097&sid=aA921K4DLqH4&refer=world_currencies
La banca centrale professa ottimismo e promette vendetta contro gli infami speculatori prevedendo addirittura un rafforzamento del cambio.
Le riserve si sono incrementate a 53,7 miliardi (grazie all'emissione dei bond di cui sopra) e gli swap valutari a 18 miliardi (12 dei quali con il Giappone , il doppio dei precedenti 6)
Interessante questa tabella http://www.dmo.or.id/dmodata/5Stati...Kepemilikan_SUN_yang_Dapat_Diperdagangkan.pdf che mostra l'ammontare dei titoli di stato domestici posseduti dagli stranieri, in calo dal massimo di agosto di 106 trilioni di rupie agli attuali 79.
Si tratta comunque di cifre modeste in valore assoluto, 79 trilioni di rupie infatti ammontano ad appena 6,5 miliardi di $ , una cifra che non puo' impensierire se confrontata con i 53 miliardi di riserve.
Immagino che i motivi della paura sulla valuta risiedano nell'ammontare del debito del settore privato, non quello pubblico.
 
Bond EBRD alle stelle

In questo momento a Francoforte bid 95,35 offer 98,35 ....un mese fa era rotolato a 84
NDF a 1 anno 12400 con un differenziale implicito del 9% annuo , un mese fa 14800 con differenziale implicito oltre il 20% annuo ...aver avuto il coraggio :(
 
Inflazione e Trade Surplus marzo

Continua la serie di dati positivi :up:
La variazione mensile del CPI e' stata dello 0,22% http://www.bps.go.id/sector/cpi/table3.shtml il che ha portato la variazione annua al minimo degli ultimi tredici mesi, il 7,9% , dall'8,6% di febbraio.
In brusco calo anche l'export , -32,8% a 7,08 miliardi , ma l'import ha fatto di peggio (o di meglio ? :D) con un -42% a quota 4,56 miliardi.
La bilancia commerciale resta pertanto ampiamente positiva.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ajNQc51ViSRw
 
e la rupia volaaaaa....

Non mi e' ben chiaro per quale motivo il fatto che il partito del presidente abbia ottenuto appena il 20% dei voti abbia generato una simile ventata di ottimismo, ma e' un fatto che in questo momento la rupia ha ricacciato il $ sotto quota 11.000 a 10.860 :up: -2,3% la variazione giornaliera per il $ http://www.ebloomberg.com/markets/currencies/asiapac_currencies.html
Stando a quest'articolo di Bloomberg http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a3VGhCOPQKt4 ora la Barclays prevede un cambio USD/IDR a 10.000 entro sei mesi , previsione ovviamente da prendere con le molle visto che due mesi fa sostenevano che la rupia sarebbe rotolata a 15.500 :lol:
Mostraccio, preparati ad accantonare una corposa cifra per la cena :D
 
Non mi e' ben chiaro per quale motivo il fatto che il partito del presidente abbia ottenuto appena il 20% dei voti abbia generato una simile ventata di ottimismohttp://
Leggendo con piu' attenzione ora mi e' chiaro:
President Yudhoyono’s Democrat Party is leading the April 9 parliamentary elections with 20.4 percent of the vote, according to returns so far from the Indonesian Survey Institute. That’s almost three times the tally in 2004’s election. The final result will be released on May 9.
Il 20% e' il triplo del risultato delle precedenti elezioni del 2004.
Certo che l'elettorato deve essere ben frazionato per aver permesso ad un partito con il 7% dei voti di nominare il premier :eek:
 
Una interessante Reuter dà conto della recente attività di emissione di bond internazionali da parte dell'Indonesia, che appare non lontana dall'obiettivo di raccolta di 9 mld $ prefissato per quest'anno.

Ultimo arriva questo sukuk da 5-600 mln $.

* Indonesia seen raising $500-600 mln in global sukuk sale
* Yield guidance at 9.25 pct area; pricing on Thurs - source
* Sukuk market in doldrums as Gulf investors suffer
* Indonesia closer to $9 bln funding requirement for year (Updates with official price guidance, orderbook, price timing)

By Rafael Nam and Sonya Angraini

HONG KONG/JAKARTA, April 15 (Reuters) - Indonesia is looking to sell its first ever global Islamic bond as early as Thursday, the government said, reviving a sale that will test demand in a sukuk market badly hurt by the global financial crisis.

After delaying the sale from late last year at the height of the crisis, Southeast Asia's top economy is selling a benchmark 5-year dollar-denominated sukuk. The sale was confirmed by Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati, but she declined to comment further when addressing reporters in Jakarta.

Indonesia is seen raising $500 million-$600 million via the sale, marking a first for the country that has the world's largest Muslim population, as it seeks to plug a budget gap estimated at 2.5 percent of gross domestic product this year.

The country set guidance for its sukuk at a yield of around 9.25 percent, having attracted "north of $1.5 billion" in orders as of Wednesday evening in Asia, said a source with direct knowledge of the deal, but not authorised to talk publicly.

The country already raised $3 billion in dollar-denominated sovereign bonds in February and plans to sell up to $1.5 billion in Samurai bonds, or debt issued in Japan by foreign entities. These sales are putting Indonesia within sight of its goal to raise a total of about $9 billion this year.
Pricing could come as soon as "in 24 hours", Rahmat Waluyanto, director of debt management at the Indonesia finance ministry, said by text message.

"This is an attempt by Indonesia to say we want to be a player in the Islamic financial markets," Raj M Maiden, managing director at Singapore-based consultancy firm Five Pillars.

"Is it the return of the sukuk? I think it is an attempt to bring it on," he added. "The outlook is still a little bit unclear."

The intended pricing for the sukuk compares with the 10.5 percent yield at which Indonesia sold a five-year dollar bond in February. That debt has since rallied and was last trading at around 8.5 percent <455780BB1=>.
There has been no sale of dollar-denominated sukuk this year in the once high-flying market. Issuance had already slumped to $1.9 billion last year from the record $10.3 billion sold in 2007, according to Thomson Reuters data.

Unlike conventional debt, sukuk pays returns derived from underlying assets, often in the form of assets such as real estate, given that Islamic law bans the payment of interest.

The global financial crisis has dented Gulf economies that had served as an investor base for these products, while a property downturn in cities such as Dubai have further led to the slowdown in Islamic bond sales.

PLUGGING THE DEFICIT

Indonesia is getting closer to its full year target of raising around 100 trillion rupiah ($9.15 billion) in a quest to plug its deficit, having so far raised 73 trillion rupiah from bond sales both domestically and overseas.

Its sukuk issuance will adopt an ijarah structure, or a real estate sale and leaseback format between Indonesia and a special purpose company created by the government for the purpose of issuing these bonds.

The underlying assets backing the issuance will include government property in Jakarta and West Java.

Indonesia's economy has been hit by the global downturn, though not as badly as other Asian countries given that domestic consumption accounts for two-thirds of GDP.

Credit ratings agencies have also described Indonesia's external and fiscal position as manageable.

Still the drop in commodity exports has hit Indonesia, with the Asian Development Bank (ADB) estimating growth this year will slow to 3.6 percent this year down from 6.1 percent in 2008.

The authorities in Jakarta have taken several steps to protect the economy, including a 73.3 trillion rupiah ($6.35 billion) fiscal stimulus package.

Indonesia has mandated Barclays Capital, HSBC <0005.HK> and Standard Chartered for the issuance.

The sukuk was rated 'BB-minus' by Standard & Poor's and 'Ba3' by Moody's Investors Service, or three notches below investment-grade. Fitch has rated the debt at 'BB'. All three ratings are in line with Indonesia's sovereign ratings. (Additional reporting by Muklis Ali in JAKARTA; Editing by Tomasz Janowski, Kazunori Takada and Toby Chopra)
 

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