Journal to portfolio afterlife

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ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Una valuta garantita da oro+commodities sarebbe già di per sé una rivoluzione del sistema economico e finanziario mondiale, ma ciò che la può rendere disruptive sarebbe una ampia adozione come valuta di scambio nel commercio internazionale e come valuta di riserva mondiale.

 

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Una valuta garantita da oro+commodities sarebbe già di per sé una rivoluzione del sistema economico e finanziario mondiale, ma ciò che la può rendere disruptive sarebbe una ampia adozione come valuta di scambio nel commercio internazionale e come valuta di riserva mondiale.

e perchè se no questo accanimento occidentale verso la Russia?

 

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Un paniere di titoli pesato per la capitalizzazione di mercato avrà sempre in pancia (per definizione) le azioni vincenti. Non le avrà in pancia dalla notte dei tempi, ma le avrà in pancia per un periodo sufficientemente lungo per trarne profitto.

But here is where things break down between buying an individual company that has declined a lot and buying an index that has declined a lot—there is no guarantee that the individual company will ever recover. Netflix may never get back to its old highs. It may slowly decline into the graveyard of market history.
However, with an index fund like the S&P 500 this is unlikely to occur. Though there are exceptions to this rule (i.e. Japan since 1989, Greece since 2008, etc.), the probability of the S&P 500 never recovering from a crash is quite low.
Why? Because, unlike an individual company, the S&P 500 is always changing.

Quando si hanno singoli titoli, c'è una elevata probabilità di avere quelli sbagliati...

Of the 28,853 companies that traded on U.S. markets since 1950, 22,469 (78 percent) had died by 2009. Of these 45 percent were acquired by or merged with other companies, while only about 9 percent went bankrupt or were liquidated; 3 percent privatized, 0.5 percent underwent leveraged buyouts, 0.5 percent went through reverse acquisitions, and the remainder disappeared for “other reasons.”

Questo invece non lo sapevo!

the average longevity of a company in the S&P 500 index has been on a gradual decline over the past few decades

In 1965 the average company tenure in the S&P 500 was 33 years, but today it’s closer to 20 years.

Non è proprio così, anche il paniere di titoli individuali può cambiare... il problema è diverso, c'è una scarsa probabilità di intercettare i titoli vincenti rispetto alla media di mercato rappresentata da un indice azionario.

Regardless of how quickly companies are moving in and out of the index, you can see that owning an index is fundamentally different than owning a basket of individual stocks. While your basket of individual stocks will remain the same over time, the index will not.

Infatti ...

If you look at the universe of individual stocks in the U.S. going back to 1963, the median one-year return is 6.6%, including dividends. This means that if you grabbed an individual stock at random at any point in time since 1963, you would’ve earned roughly 6.6% over the next year. However, if you did the same thing with the S&P 500, you would’ve earned 9.9% instead.

A Stock is Not an Index

Why buying the dip in an individual stock isn't like buying the dip in an index fund.

ofdollarsanddata.com

 

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Problemi in paradiso.

 

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Non ditelo ai gretini ...

 

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Quindi l'embargo sul carbone russo da agosto e l'embargo al petrolio russo entro fine anno? E nel frattempo i politici europei stanno facendo gli scongiuri affinché la guerra finisca prima che i nodi arrivino al pettine.

The European Union is set to propose a ban on Russian oil by the end of the year, with restrictions on imports introduced gradually until then, according to people familiar with the matter.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

 

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