Journal to portfolio afterlife

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https://twitter.com/x/status/1703422407480926543

 

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La fiducia nell’Unione europea, ancora prevalente fino a una decina d’anni fa, si contrae sensibilmente per riprendersi successivamente, nel corso della pandemia e grazie ai pesanti interventi di sostegno ai Paesi membri e al next-generation Eu, ma senza tornare ad essere maggioritaria. Oggi il 39% dichiara fiducia nell’Europa, il 48% esprime sfiducia.

Il sondaggio, italiani divisi sull’Europa: il 48% è diffidente , chi ha fiducia è al 39

Ma per il 46% il governo gestisce bene i rapporti con Bruxelles. Sul Pnrr prevale (35%) chi attribuisce le difficoltà alle mancate riforme dell’esecutivo

www.corriere.it

 

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Anche i distillati scarseggiano come riserve globali.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1703520397197488331

https://twitter.com/x/status/1703355623692275762

 

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https://twitter.com/x/status/1703456796185129064

 

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Se l'euro rimane debole contribuirà all'aumento dei costi energetici.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1703372945727308166

 

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Un riassunto eccellente della situazione energetica.

The weakness in crude was a combination of monetary factors, increased United States supply, and weaker global demand. Those three factors have now reversed at the same time.
We cannot blame OPEC when prices rise and ignore them when prices fall.

The biggest challenge for the oil market in developed economies in the next five years is self-inflicted.
Governments and financial institutions all over the world declared war on investment in fossil fuels under the misguided view that supply and prices would not be affected.
According to JP Morgan, there is a chronic underinvestment in the oil and gas complex that exceeds $600 billion per year.

Development capital expenditure was kept to a bare minimum, and even some European oil and gas giants started selling their “net zero emissions” strategy, ignoring the global energy reality. Total oil and gas investment came below depreciation for the sixth year in a row, according to Goldman Sachs.

The energy transition cannot happen through ideological imposition. It requires technology and competition. Destroying the incentives to invest in oil and gas and imposing an ideological, not industrial, view of energy has made developed economies more dependent on fossil fuels.
When politicians decide, they willingly ignore economic calculations because they believe that the political world dictates prices, not supply and demand. Economic analysis has been abandoned, and the result is an exceedingly negative scenario.

Developed economies have destroyed all incentives to invest in diversification and security of supply of oil and gas driven by an ideological view of the world without having a feasible, abundant, and flexible alternative. Thus, when the United States administration imposes more restrictions on oil and gas investment and the European Union decides to reduce nuclear capacity and ban the development of domestic resources, all they have done is make their economies more dependent on foreign suppliers.

This is the imaginary deal that we, in the West, offer to oil and gas producing nations: “Dear oil and gas producers, you have to produce as much as we demand and sell it cheap, investing billions of dollars in development, but we will not use your product in ten years”. I imagine there is no rush to sign such a deal.

Crude oil displaced other sources of energy because it was easier to store, produce, and transport. Crude oil and natural gas proved to be abundant, easy to manage, and economically efficient. This is the first time in human history that the energy transition has been decided by politicians without allowing technology, competition, or human ingenuity to come up with a better, more flexible, and more economical alternative. Renewables are great, but they are intermittent and volatile. We need to allow the world to produce alternatives when they can truly replace the current energy resources without destroying our lifestyle and economy.

The irony is that anyone who understands energy knows that there is no successful energy transition without natural gas and nuclear, and this requires incentives to invest in energy security. Governments will not back down, and they will prefer a decline in energy prices coming from a deep recession to an improvement coming from diversification and investment.

This may be yet another energy crisis created by political design. Unfortunately, instead of learning and changing, many developed nations’ policymakers will prefer to impose restrictions on consumers. Ultimately, the incorrect planning of this energy transition is not a question of energy sovereignty or climate change, but a way to control citizens. That is why many governments prefer to see soaring energy prices, because that will allow them to impose restrictions on consumers.

The oil price shock is a direct consequence of interventionism. | dlacalle.com

www.dlacalle.com

 

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Rob Arnott ha una capacità comunicativa molto buona nello spiegare i concetti.

 

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Ho preso un cippino di AT2120.

 

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https://twitter.com/x/status/1703670177596887154