Journal to portfolio afterlife

[portfolioafterlife]

Ho acquistato uno 0,3% di embe.

 

[portfolioafterlife]

un grande grazie a Draghi

Ogni giorno che passa ci avviciniamo alla recessione. A parte per la direzione che ha portato avanti col suo governo, Draghi non mi ha entusiasmato per molte sue battute infelici.

 

[portfolioafterlife]

 

[portfolioafterlife]

Now that inflation expectations are becoming unanchored, a new approach is needed. I see three main scenarios:
1. ‘Credible disinflation’: The recent collective memory of low inflation prevails, and central
banks’ credibility is restored. In this scenario, an economic soft landing could be engineered.
Financial markets would return to the pre-crisis situation that was characterised by relatively
low rates and slim risk premia. This is more or less what is priced in today, although there have
been setbacks in certain overvalued asset classes and market segments. This scenario does not
appear likely, unless inflation retreats on its own, a development that would represent good
luck on par with the series of coincidences that delivered the low inflation of recent decades.
2. ‘Incredible disinflation’: Central banks started out too far behind the curve, and are racing
to prevent long-dormant inflation memories from resurfacing and becoming entrenched.
Monetary policy actions would be painful for markets and economic activity, but necessary
to curb inflation. In this scenario, investors should take shelter and wait out the storm. There
would be a recession and asset price bubbles would burst, but then there would be a return
to normal. This is a viable option but policymakers probably lack the resolve to fight this long
and hard battle.
3. ‘Incredible inflation’: Central banks have not fallen behind the curve by chance or by mistake,
but are undergoing a profound change. They will tolerate higher inflation to foster nominal
growth. This implies a structural change in the public’s psychology as well, and higher inflation
expectations would become the norm. In this case, equities would do better than feared and
real rates would remain low for some time, postponing – but not eliminating – the recession
risks. In this scenario, investors should look to tackle inflation through real assets. This is a
credible alternative to the current consensus view.

https://research-center.amundi.com/files/nuxeo/dl/499d5e51-8f8e-4b73-8f42-7403dd7ddfda

 

[portfolioafterlife]

 

[portfolioafterlife]

Ho chiuso la posizione su Austria 2120 con gain 9,1%. Recupero minus e inoltre devo ricaricare le munizioni.

 

[portfolioafterlife]

Ho acquistato ancora 1% di embe con cambio eur/usd a 1,002. Il pmc è 77,76 €

 

[portfolioafterlife]

 

[portfolioafterlife]

Con le ultime modifiche di portafoglio.

 

[portfolioafterlife]

Un dollaro così forte, alla parità con l'euro, a me sembra francamente irrealistico da qui a due anni. Staremo a vedere.