Journal to portfolio afterlife

[portfolioafterlife]

 

[portfolioafterlife]

Rispetto al valore del portafoglio come denominatore, per recuperare lo 0,8% di minusvalenze nello zainetto fiscale ho speso lo 0,04% di spread e commissioni.
Con la modifica dell’asset allocation avendo venduto oro e argento per 10,7% e comprato un basket di metalli preziosi (oro, argento, platino, palladio) per 10,7%, mi trovo con l'annual turnover rate del portafoglio che sale a quasi il 400%.
Piccole ottimizzazioni fiscali che non sono a costo zero e che sono costretto a fare a causa dell’inefficienza fiscale degli etf.

L’etf hyld stacca una distribuzione su cui pago il 26% di tasse e che mi verrà pagata solo il 30 marzo.

 

[portfolioafterlife]

Per gli USA probabilmente è vero, è difficile dire se andranno in recessione.

Peter Lynch once said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections or trying to anticipate corrections than has been lost in corrections themselves.”
The same is true of recessions.

How to Prepare For a Recession - A Wealth of Common Sense

Why you should always be preparing for a recession.

awealthofcommonsense.com

Per l'Italia direi che non ci sono commenti da fare ... il pil reale non ha ancora recuperato il picco del 2007, e faremo ancora un passo indietro con l'inflazione del 2022. Il declino è evidente.

Prodotto interno lordo e debito pubblico lordo in Italia (1960-2024) | Grafici

Di debito pubblico e di PIL se ne sente parlare tutti i giorni in termini attuali, più difficile è invece trovare informazioni chiare e attendibili su come questi due valori siano variati su tempi più lunghi. Proviamo a colmare questa lacuna.

grafici.altervista.org

 

[portfolioafterlife]

It’s hard to get too bearish when nobody is bullish. But it’s hard to get too bullish when the S&P 500 is just 13% off its all-time high.

The Irrelevant Investor

theirrelevantinvestor.com

 

[portfolioafterlife]

Since 1915, there have been 29 separate 10% declines in the Dow. Of those 29, the Dow had a positive return over the next year in 20 cases and a negative return over the next year in nine cases. Therefore, statistically, there is 69% chance that, following a 10% decline, the market would be higher one year later.

Thankfully, when it comes to “Great Depression or bust”, most of the time the answer is bust. Most of the time a market decline does not become a once-in-a-century kind of event. No, most market declines are far tamer. This doesn’t imply that these tamer declines can’t have devastating impacts on the economy, they definitely can. However, as the data suggests, their impact on market prices tends to be short-lived.

Great Depression or Bust

A data-driven analysis on market declines and the one question that can reframe how you think about them.

ofdollarsanddata.com

 

[portfolioafterlife]

Si riduce il gain rispetto al benchmark.

 

[portfolioafterlife]

The good news is that, contrary to popular perception, successful investing has nothing whatsoever to do with skill. But what you do need is mental strength — the sort of strength that elite sports stars have in abundance.

It is, of course, perfectly natural to feel anxious when bad news is followed by more bad news. 200,000 years of evolution have made the human brain highly sensitive to perceived threats. But worrying about events and, worse still, ruminating on the possible consequences, can be a waste of time and energy.

Lessons for investors in mental strength from a cricketing icon | TEBI

Successful investing has nothing to do with skill. But you do need mental strength — something that elite sportspeople have in abundance.

www.evidenceinvestor.com

 

[portfolioafterlife]

It is not reasonable to expect people to be good at making market forecasts: Creating accurate forecasts about a noisy, complex system is close to impossible. It is entirely fanciful to believe that anyone can consistently succeed in it.

Engaging in forecasting is a perfect example of how overconfidence can influence our behaviour. A 2017 paper called The three faces of overconfidence suggests that the trait encompasses three distinct forms — overplacement, overestimation and overprecision.

Overplacement — it doesn’t matter if most people are abject at making market predictions, we place ourselves in the upper echelons. We are better than most people.

Overestimation — we not only think we are superior to others, but we also significantly overstate our own skill and judgement.

Overprecision — we are far too certain that we have the right answer. This can be particularly damaging for investors who are prone to under-diversify and take injudicious decisions based on forecasting prowess.

It is difficult living and investing in an uncertain world. Forecasts about the future give us comfort amidst chaos and unpredictability. Even though they are likely to be inaccurate, at the time they are made they make us feel better.

The mistake we make is to assume that some successful forecasts within a group at one point in time (the survivors) means that certain individuals can consistently make good predictions through time.

Despite it undeniably being a loser’s game, it is far easier to make predictions about markets than not.

The lesson that we should learn (but never do) is that short-term movements in financial markets (and everything related to them) are far too difficult to accurately predict, and we should stop attempting to do it. We need to make our investment decisions on the basis that we cannot forecast most things, not that we can.

Financial market predictions are an exercise in extreme complexity. Not only are we attempting to anticipate how certain issues and events will unfold (known unknowns), but any market forecast will also be implicitly incorporating situations that have not yet occurred (unknown unknowns).

Questo è un mio difetto

Critically, the inherent uncertainty in financial markets also means that frequent adjustments would be required resulting in high turnover and trading costs.

Market forecasts: why we just can't stop ourselves | TEBI

Human beings love to make predictions. Who’ll win the Premier League? What about the next general election? How will the UK fare at this year’s Eurovision? You name it, we like to have an opinion on it — which some of us are only to happy to express when given half an […]

www.evidenceinvestor.com

 

[portfolioafterlife]

L'Europa macina sassi

 

[portfolioafterlife]

The Man Behind Ethereum Is Worried About Crypto's Future

Vitalik Buterin dreamed up the blockchain technology for uses beyond currency. Now he's fighting to fix the industry

time.com