Journal to portfolio afterlife

[portfolioafterlife]

Stagflation strikes back

Authored by Krishan Gopaul and Johan Palmberg The risk of stagflation has increased materially since we addressed the topic last year Europe appears to be at greater risk than the US, due to higher exposure to soaring commodity prices and a weaker economic position, but alarm bells could soon...

www.gold.org

 

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[portfolioafterlife]

Sembra tornato sui mercati il risk-on con i metalli preziosi in discesa e l'azionario che avanza.

 

[portfolioafterlife]

China attracted a record high $334 billion in net foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2021, a 32% surge from the previous year, government data showed.

Foreign Direct Investment in China Hit Record High in 2021 - Caixin Global

Foreign Direct Investment in China Hit Record High in 2021 - Figure reaches $334 billion, up nearly one-third from the year before

www.caixinglobal.com

 

[portfolioafterlife]

Much of the confusion regarding the gold price has to do with gold’s dual nature, being both a currency and a commodity. This confusion is removed when you realize that in terms of supply and demand dynamics gold trades more like a currency than a commodity.

Its long tradition as store of value means extremely little gold has been wasted over history. The vast majority of all the gold ever mined is still with us. Consequently, annual mine production adds about 1.7% to the above ground stock of gold.

At the time of writing the total above ground stock of gold is 205,000 tonnes and global mine output in 2021 accounted for 3,560 tonnes. The stock-to-flow ratio (STFR) is currently 58 (205,000 / 3,560). Gold’s high STFR and the fact that most above ground gold is held for monetary purposes is what makes it trade like a currency.

From 1982 until 2020 only 44% of the time a “surplus” or “deficit” in the gold market was positively correlated to the direction of the gold price. Flipping a coin would get a better result—50%. This disappointing score is explained by the fact that gold is a currency and currencies can’t be in a surplus or deficit.

Annual mine output reacts to the gold price, not the other way around. When there is a bull market, new mining projects are initiated. Ten years later these mines start producing and elevate total mine output. Of course, in the long run mine supply does influence the gold price, as it increases the above ground stock over time.

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

 

[portfolioafterlife]

Si ripeterà lo scenario già visto?

 

[portfolioafterlife]

Il mercato coglie i segnali di rasserenamento del conflitto tra Russia e Ucraina, perciò i metalli preziosi calano parecchio.

 

[portfolioafterlife]

Market ups-and-downs are the price that investors have to pay in order to gain high returns in the long-term. You can’t control what causes the volatility, be it geopolitical turmoil, inflation, or Covid surges, but you can control how you react to it.

To Survive This Volatility, Keep Your Cool – Validea's Guru Investor Blog

Current market volatility is giving investors whiplash, from panic to relief and back again. It’s impossible to say when the roller-coaster will end, but a piece in Real Clear Markets by Ken Fisher, founder of Fisher Investments, offers a volatility survival guide with the over-arching piece of...

blog.validea.com

 

[portfolioafterlife]

The gold industry is testing blockchain technology to track the global market's supply chain of bars

The London Bullion Market Association and the World Gold Council aim to put in place an international system of gold bar integrity.

markets.businessinsider.com

 

[portfolioafterlife]