Journal to portfolio afterlife

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La liquidità torna a zero, devo attingere dal portafoglio finanziario per le spese, non avendo più entrate. Nel cruscotto del portafoglio, quando appare il valore del leverage>1, significa che sto usando il fido bancario. Il rendimento del portafoglio viene calcolato sterilizzando l'effetto delle spese.

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LARRY SUMMERS: I think the likelihood is that we will not return to 2 percent inflation without having at least a mild recession. I think that the magnitude of the imbalances and excess demand in the labor market are sufficiently great that the odds are probably three and four that we will not get inflation down without running a recession.

Here’s a simple fact for your listeners to consider — if you look at the last 75 years of American business cycle history and you just ask the question — suppose that the unemployment rate is below 4 and the inflation rate is above 4, what are the odds that the economy will go into a recession in the next year and what are the odds that the economy will go into recession in the next two years? Depending on just how you calculate the answer, it’s about 50 percent that it will go in the next year and about 75 percent that it will go in the next two years.

 
Uncertainty caused by the invasion, combined with an intensifying cost-of-living crisis, suggests the euro zone's manufacturing industry could slide into a recession this quarter.

 

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